4400 Gateway Rd #62 · Bethel Island, CA 94511

$139,900

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 900 sqft · Manufactured · 80 Days on market

Good condition ↓ 9% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this tastefully remodeled manufacture home in the Bethal Island Estates community. This home consist of 3 bedrooms and 1.5 baths. Updated kitchen with stone counter tops. Laminate flooring throughout. The roof is only 3 years old. Fresh paint inside. Spacious porch to enjoy your coffee or favorite drink. This home is waiting for its new owner and it's priced to sell!

Key facts

• Laminate flooring
• Updated kitchen
• Stone counter tops

Tags

• REMODELED HOME
• UPDATED KITCHEN
• STONE COUNTER TOPS
• LAMINATE FLOORING
• NEW ROOF
• SPACIOUS PORCH

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Living area approximately 900 square feet
• HOA & community: Park name not listed

Exterior

• Parking: Parking spaces available
• Utilities: Public water
• Home design: Manufactured in park; Mobile home (single wide)
• Construction: Wood siding
• Exterior features: Front porch; Level lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Stone counters; Kitchen island; Eat-in kitchen; Breakfast bar; Free-standing range; Updated kitchen
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (street level)
• Flooring: Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 bathrooms total (1 full, 1 partial)
• Heating & cooling: Wall furnace heating; Ceiling fan(s) for cooling
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Updated kitchen; No additional rooms
• Laundry & utility: Washer/dryer hookups only

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath manufactured listed at $140k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($17k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $140k).
• Recommended offer: $132k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 22.3% vs local median 2.9% in Bethel Island — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 49/100 on livability (#1,166 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A-; Watch: employment C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Oakley Union Elementary (suburban): math 26% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #837 of 1,400 in CA (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 78 active listings in the ZIP; 2,169 units permitted in Contra Costa County in 2024 (896 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $15k of equity ($967 loan paydown + $14k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Contra Costa County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 80 days — a 6% lower offer ($132k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 18y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $131,506 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 80 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.56% ✓
• Cap rate: 22.30%
• Cash-on-cash: 57.17%
• DSCR: 3.54
• GRM: 3.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 58.7%
• Equity multiple: 5.29×
• Total profit: $168,195
• Equity at exit: $126,033

10-year hold

• IRR: 52.2%
• Equity multiple: 11.82×
• Total profit: $423,835
• Equity at exit: $271,795

Cash invested: $39,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 94511

• Home prices YoY: 4.6%
• Active inventory: 78
• Price-to-rent: 3.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,586 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$175 /mo · $2,098/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$753
• Net cashflow: $1,440

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,764

Max offer price $139,900

Occupancy floor 55%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,975
• Closing costs: $4,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $139,900 Active 80 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $139,900 Active 79 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $139,900 Active 78 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $139,900 Active 77 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $139,900 Active 75 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $139,900 Active 74 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $139,900 Active 71 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $139,900 Active 70 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on market $139,900 Active 69 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $150,000 Active 66 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $150,000 Active 65 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $150,000 Active 64 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $150,000 Active 63 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $150,000 Active 62 DOM
15. 2026-04-21
    price $150,000
16. 2026-03-30
    listed $165,000 Active
17. 2024-04-26
    historical
18. 2024-04-05
    price
19. 2024-01-20
    listed Active
20. 2010-12-05
    historical
21. 2009-01-25
    historical
22. 2009-01-08
    price
23. 2008-12-27
    price
24. 2008-12-12
    price
25. 2008-11-13
    price
26. 2008-09-13
    listed

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone AE · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 21 unhealthy d/yr today · 23 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $43,032
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,837
• − Property taxes: −$2,098
• − Insurance: −$5,818
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,443
• − Management: −$3,443
• − Depreciation: −$4,070
• Taxable income: $16,324
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,918
• After-tax cash flow: $13,357/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This tastefully remodeled manufactured home in Bethal Island Estates is in good condition with a fresh paint job and updated kitchen. It's move-in ready and priced to sell!

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint the exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and home value.
• Resale Replace the kitchen faucet — A new faucet can improve the kitchen's aesthetic and functionality.
• Rental Install a smart thermostat — Smart thermostats can improve energy efficiency and attract tech-savvy renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint the exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and home value. ↑
• Resale Replace the kitchen faucet — A new faucet can improve the kitchen's aesthetic and functionality. ↑
• Rental Install a smart thermostat — Smart thermostats can improve energy efficiency and attract tech-savvy renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Oakley Union Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0628080
• Math proficiency: 26% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $77,903
• Composite: 34.04/100
• National rank: #10301
• State rank: #837 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Bethel Island

• Score: 49/100
• State rank: #1166
• US rank: #25883

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A- Employment C- Housing C Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bethel Island, CA
• City population: 2,144
• Population (ZIP): 2,144

Population outlook (Contra Costa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,287,720 people
• By 2030: 1,364,937 · +6.0%
• By 2040: 1,506,209 · +17.0%
• By 2050: 1,624,373 · +26.1%
• By 2075: 1,853,193 · +43.9%
• By 2100: 1,901,231 · +47.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Hispanic / Latino 25% Asian 6% Two or more races 3% Pacific Islander 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Serbian 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 27% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 20% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Contra Costa

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+38.0) · D 67.3% · R 29.4% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.2pp no change · 2008: 37.8pp · 2024: 38.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+38.0 2020: D+45.3 2016: D+43.5 2012: D+33.7 2008: D+37.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 13.77%
• Current HPI: 312.0698
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-9.1% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-21 Price Changed $150,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-03-30 Listed $165,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2024-04-26 Listing Removed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2024-04-05 Price Changed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2024-01-20 Listed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2010-12-05 Listing Removed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2009-01-25 Listing Removed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2009-01-08 Price Changed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2008-12-27 Price Changed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2008-12-12 Price Changed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2008-11-13 Price Changed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2008-09-13 Listed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR