309 1st St · East Bethlehem, PA 15368

$45,000

6 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,580 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 20 Days on market

Built 1910 0.26 ac lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +1.9/10.0

Listing remarks

Investor Special in Bethlehem-Center School District! This spacious property is packed with potential and ready for your vision. Whether you're looking for your next fix-and-flip, rental property, or renovation project, this home offers an excellent opportunity to build equity. Conveniently located with easy access to local amenities, schools, and major routes. Bring your contractor and imagination—there's plenty of value to unlock here. Being sold as-is. Cash, renovation financing, or other suitable financing options may be considered. Don't miss your chance to transform this property into something special!

Key facts

• 0.26 acre lot
• Built 1910
• Listed 20 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: On-street parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: 2-story home; Resale property
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Metal roof
• Exterior features: On-street parking; Lot approximately 0.26 acres

Interior

• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Oil heating
• Interior features: Basement present

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 6-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $45k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $651 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $45k).
• Recommended offer: $44k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Bethlehem-Center SD (rural): math 18% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #448 of 539 in PA (top 83%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 3 active listings in the ZIP; 489 units permitted in Washington County in 2024 (30 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $311 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Washington County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($44k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 4.6% of price; built in 1910 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $44,325 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1910 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 23.67%
• Cash-on-cash: 62.04%
• DSCR: 3.76
• GRM: 2.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 61.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.72×
• Total profit: $34,292
• Equity at exit: $6,710

10-year hold

• IRR: 65.7%
• Equity multiple: 7.64×
• Total profit: $83,662
• Equity at exit: $3,891

Cash invested: $12,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 15368

• Home prices YoY: -5.2%
• Active inventory: 3
• Price-to-rent: 2.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,365 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$236
• Tax from tax record: −$172 /mo · $2,065/yr
• Insurance: −$19
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$287
• Net cashflow: $651

Break-even live

Break-even rent $540

Max offer price $45,000

Occupancy floor 47%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $11,250
• Closing costs: $1,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $45,000 Active 20 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $45,000 Active 19 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   pricedays on market $45,000 Active 18 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $55,000 Active 17 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $55,000 Active 15 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   price $55,000 Active 11 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $75,000 Active 11 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $75,000 Active 10 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $75,000 Active 9 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $75,000 Active 5 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $75,000 Active 4 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $75,000 Active 3 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $75,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,065 · $172/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,065 · $172/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,380
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,521
• − Property taxes: −$2,065
• − Insurance: −$225
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,310
• − Management: −$1,310
• − Depreciation: −$1,309
• Taxable income: $7,639
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,833
• After-tax cash flow: $5,984/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bethlehem-Center SD
• NCES district ID: 4203600
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -15.00%
• Median HH income: $49,354
• Composite: 24.81/100
• National rank: #7596
• State rank: #448 of 539 in PA

Livability — East Bethlehem

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 367

Population outlook (Washington County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 208,060 people
• By 2030: 207,168 · -0.4%
• By 2040: 202,738 · -2.6%
• By 2050: 195,269 · -6.1%
• By 2075: 175,588 · -15.6%
• By 2100: 145,827 · -29.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Two or more races 14% Black 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 17% Iranian 5% Scotch-Irish 4%
• Foreign-born: 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Washington

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.5) · D 36.9% · R 62.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.8pp toward R · 2008: -4.7pp · 2024: -25.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.5 2020: R+22.8 2016: R+25.3 2012: R+13.3 2008: R+4.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -6.16%
• Current HPI: 112.6126
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listed $75,000 West Penn MLS

Property tax history

+5.6%/yr

Latest (2026): $2,065 · +3.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.