144 Fer Don Rd · Shiloh, OH 45405

$79,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,292 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 94 Days on market

Built 1941 5,741 sqft lot $61/sqft · 35% below area Est $121k · 35% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.7/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.4/10.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Good Value in Dayton. Home features 3 bedrooms and 2 full baths and is listed at 1292 PRC. 1 car detached garage. Full unfinished basement. Updated kitchen and bath. Conveniently located close to downtown and i-75 access. Hud case #411-487322. Hud homes are sold as-is. Room sizes have been estimated.

Key facts

• Updated bath
• I-75 access
• Updated kitchen

Tags

• UPDATED KITCHEN
• UPDATED BATH
• FULL UNFINISHED BASEMENT
• I-75 ACCESS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $79k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $288 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $79k).
• Recommended offer: $72k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.7% vs local median 4.7% in Shiloh — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#639 in OH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Dayton City (urban): math 12% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #641 of 656 in OH (top 98%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 74% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.3%/yr); 134 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 907 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (416 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($44k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $546 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at -10% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.3% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 94 days — a 9% lower offer ($72k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $46k (37%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $58k; 37% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1941 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $71,890 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 94 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1941 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.44% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.67%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.63%
• DSCR: 1.70
• GRM: 5.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $121,101
• List price: $79,000
• Delta: -34.77%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
112 Fer Don Rd	0.05mi	3/1.5	1,356 (+5%)	4mo	$160,000	$118	84
445 Sandhurst Dr	0.30mi	3/1.0	1,338 (+4%)	2mo	$48,950	$37	79
55 E Siebenthaler Ave	0.43mi	3/1.0	1,326 (+3%)	3mo	$130,000	$98	73
4060 Halworth Rd	0.26mi	3/1.5	1,165 (-10%)	2mo	$100,000	$86	68
4103 Halworth Rd	0.31mi	3/1.0	1,165 (-10%)	2mo	$125,000	$107	68
1404 Pinecrest Dr	0.57mi	3/1.5	1,256 (-3%)	0mo	$205,000	$163	66
104 Waverly Ave	0.63mi	3/1.5	1,301 (+1%)	4mo	$132,000	$101	65
332 Ashwood Ave	0.44mi	3/1.0	1,176 (-9%)	3mo	$134,900	$115	62
61 Redder Ave	0.59mi	3/1.0	1,210 (-6%)	1mo	$115,000	$95	61
3832 Ridge Ave	0.66mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,277 (-1%)	3mo	$65,000	$51	56
56 E Siebenthaler Ave	0.45mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,418 (+10%)	4mo	$161,000	$114	52
131 W Siebenthaler Ave	0.62mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,108 (-14%)	4mo	$39,710	$36	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.34% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 8.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.32×
• Total profit: $7,151
• Equity at exit: $11,779

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.66×
• Total profit: $36,623
• Equity at exit: $6,830

Cash invested: $22,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 45405

• Rents YoY: 4.3%
• Active inventory: 134
• Price-to-rent: 5.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,136 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$414
• Tax from tax record: −$162 /mo · $1,948/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$239
• Net cashflow: $288

Break-even live

Break-even rent $772

Max offer price $79,000

Occupancy floor 70%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,750
• Closing costs: $2,370
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
419 Sandhurst Dr Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	950	$975	$1.03	23d	1	0.31mi
240 Castlewood Ave Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	912	$995	$1.09	21d	1	0.33mi
1108 Rydale Rd Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0	1281	$1,245	$0.97	19d	1	0.35mi
244 E Siebenthaler Ave Dayton, OH	2.0	1.5	1273	$1,175	$0.92	3d	1	0.40mi
228 E Siebenthaler Ave Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	934	$1,200	$1.28	44d	1	0.41mi
4339 Riverside Dr Dayton, OH	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	936	$1,399	$1.49	3d	12	0.45mi
337 Ryburn Ave Unit 2 Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	900	$800	$0.89	44d	1	0.50mi
202 E Bruce Ave Apt 2 Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	1250	$800	$0.64	23d	1	0.59mi
101 E Bruce Ave Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0	1455	$1,150	$0.79	3d	1	0.60mi
69 Waverly Ave Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	900	$850	$0.94	3d	1	0.61mi
519 Heather Dr Unit 1C Dayton, OH	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,095	$1.00	3d	1	0.68mi
110 Cromwell Pl Unit 5 Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,099	$1.10	19d	1	0.70mi
110 Cromwell Pl Unit 2 Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	1000	$995	$0.99	21d	1	0.70mi
110 Cromwell Pl Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	1050	$1,100	$1.05	3d	1	0.70mi
317 Fernwood Ave Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0	1320	$1,100	$0.83	11d	1	0.70mi
220 Fernwood Ave Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	884	$900	$1.02	3d	1	0.71mi
42 Pointview Ave Unit 42 Dayton, OH	3.0	2.0	1240	$1,200	$0.97	3d	1	0.79mi
38 Pointview Ave Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	1140	$900	$0.79	14d	1	0.79mi
65 E Maplewood Ave Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	1064	$723	$0.68	44d	1	0.82mi
39 E Maplewood Ave Dayton, OH	4.0	1.5	1560	$1,050	$0.67	3d	1	0.82mi
26 W Beechwood Ave Dayton, OH	3.0	1.5	1468	$1,050	$0.72	44d	1	0.99mi
147 Laura Ave Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	1096	$975	$0.89	23d	1	1.04mi
152 Laura Ave Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	990	$895	$0.90	44d	1	1.05mi
5208 Brookmill Ct Dayton, OH	3.0	2.0	1800	$2,000	$1.11	3d	1	1.13mi
2333 Rustic Rd Unit 4 Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	1000	$840	$0.84	3d	1	1.17mi
2333 Rustic Rd Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	1000	$840	$0.84	44d	1	1.17mi
2322 Koehler Ave Dayton, OH	4.0	1.0	1155	$1,350	$1.17	3d	1	1.19mi
2611 Onaoto Ave Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0	1025	$1,195	$1.17	11d	1	1.28mi
2327 N Main St Unit 2 Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	900	$1,200	$1.33	23d	1	1.28mi
412 W Parkwood Dr Unit 1 Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	900	$875	$0.97	23d	1	1.30mi
41 W Fairview Ave Unit 2 Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0	1452	$1,200	$0.83	14d	1	1.31mi
1019 Cherry Dr Dayton, OH	4.0	1.0	1057	$1,125	$1.06	44d	1	1.33mi
31 E Norman Ave Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,150	$1.05	23d	1	1.33mi
3031 Garvin Rd Unit C Dayton, OH	2.0	2.0	1269	$1,150	$0.91	44d	1	1.34mi
439 W Fairview Ave Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0	1500	$1,200	$0.80	44d	1	1.35mi
101 W Norman Ave Unit 101 Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0	1600	$945	$0.59	44d	1	1.38mi
181 W Norman Ave Dayton, OH	3.0	2.0	1228	$1,150	$0.94	44d	1	1.41mi
201 W Norman Ave Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0	1424	$1,200	$0.84	44d	1	1.41mi
1004 W Fairview Ave Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	1053	$950	$0.90	23d	1	1.44mi
167 W Hudson Ave Dayton, OH	3.0	1.5	1344	$1,185	$0.88	44d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-05-06
   status Active 301-char remark

   Show marketing remark (301 chars)

   Good Value in Dayton. Home features 3 bedrooms and 2 full baths and is listed at 1292 PRC. 1 car detached garage. Full unfinished basement. Updated kitchen and bath. Conveniently located close to downtown and i-75 access. Hud case #411-487322. Hud homes are sold as-is. Room sizes have been estimated.

2. 2026-02-09
   status Pending 301-char remark

   Show marketing remark (301 chars)

   Good Value in Dayton. Home features 3 bedrooms and 2 full baths and is listed at 1292 PRC. 1 car detached garage. Full unfinished basement. Updated kitchen and bath. Conveniently located close to downtown and i-75 access. Hud case #411-487322. Hud homes are sold as-is. Room sizes have been estimated.

3. 2026-02-05
   price $79,000 301-char remark

   Show marketing remark (301 chars)

   Good Value in Dayton. Home features 3 bedrooms and 2 full baths and is listed at 1292 PRC. 1 car detached garage. Full unfinished basement. Updated kitchen and bath. Conveniently located close to downtown and i-75 access. Hud case #411-487322. Hud homes are sold as-is. Room sizes have been estimated.

4. 2026-02-01
   status Active 301-char remark

   Show marketing remark (301 chars)

   Good Value in Dayton. Home features 3 bedrooms and 2 full baths and is listed at 1292 PRC. 1 car detached garage. Full unfinished basement. Updated kitchen and bath. Conveniently located close to downtown and i-75 access. Hud case #411-487322. Hud homes are sold as-is. Room sizes have been estimated.

5. 2026-01-26
   status Pending 301-char remark

   Show marketing remark (301 chars)

   Good Value in Dayton. Home features 3 bedrooms and 2 full baths and is listed at 1292 PRC. 1 car detached garage. Full unfinished basement. Updated kitchen and bath. Conveniently located close to downtown and i-75 access. Hud case #411-487322. Hud homes are sold as-is. Room sizes have been estimated.

6. 2026-01-20
   status Active 301-char remark

   Show marketing remark (301 chars)

   Good Value in Dayton. Home features 3 bedrooms and 2 full baths and is listed at 1292 PRC. 1 car detached garage. Full unfinished basement. Updated kitchen and bath. Conveniently located close to downtown and i-75 access. Hud case #411-487322. Hud homes are sold as-is. Room sizes have been estimated.

7. 2026-01-15
   status Pending 301-char remark

   Show marketing remark (301 chars)

   Good Value in Dayton. Home features 3 bedrooms and 2 full baths and is listed at 1292 PRC. 1 car detached garage. Full unfinished basement. Updated kitchen and bath. Conveniently located close to downtown and i-75 access. Hud case #411-487322. Hud homes are sold as-is. Room sizes have been estimated.

8. 2025-12-29
   status Active 301-char remark

   Show marketing remark (301 chars)

   Good Value in Dayton. Home features 3 bedrooms and 2 full baths and is listed at 1292 PRC. 1 car detached garage. Full unfinished basement. Updated kitchen and bath. Conveniently located close to downtown and i-75 access. Hud case #411-487322. Hud homes are sold as-is. Room sizes have been estimated.

9. 2025-10-28
   status Pending 301-char remark

   Show marketing remark (301 chars)

   Good Value in Dayton. Home features 3 bedrooms and 2 full baths and is listed at 1292 PRC. 1 car detached garage. Full unfinished basement. Updated kitchen and bath. Conveniently located close to downtown and i-75 access. Hud case #411-487322. Hud homes are sold as-is. Room sizes have been estimated.

10. 2025-10-24
    price $95,000 301-char remark

    Show marketing remark (301 chars)

    Good Value in Dayton. Home features 3 bedrooms and 2 full baths and is listed at 1292 PRC. 1 car detached garage. Full unfinished basement. Updated kitchen and bath. Conveniently located close to downtown and i-75 access. Hud case #411-487322. Hud homes are sold as-is. Room sizes have been estimated.

11. 2025-10-08
    price $114,000 301-char remark

    Show marketing remark (301 chars)

    Good Value in Dayton. Home features 3 bedrooms and 2 full baths and is listed at 1292 PRC. 1 car detached garage. Full unfinished basement. Updated kitchen and bath. Conveniently located close to downtown and i-75 access. Hud case #411-487322. Hud homes are sold as-is. Room sizes have been estimated.

12. 2025-09-10
    listed $125,000 Active 301-char remark

    Show marketing remark (301 chars)

    Good Value in Dayton. Home features 3 bedrooms and 2 full baths and is listed at 1292 PRC. 1 car detached garage. Full unfinished basement. Updated kitchen and bath. Conveniently located close to downtown and i-75 access. Hud case #411-487322. Hud homes are sold as-is. Room sizes have been estimated.

13. 2009-12-02
    soldstatus $57,500
14. 2001-04-09
    soldstatus $67,500
15. 1978-05-03
    soldstatus $27,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OH · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,948 · $162/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,948 · $162/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,634
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,425
• − Property taxes: −$1,948
• − Insurance: −$395
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,091
• − Management: −$1,091
• − Depreciation: −$2,298
• Taxable income: $2,386
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$573
• After-tax cash flow: $2,884/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dayton City
• NCES district ID: 3904384
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 21% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $28,688
• Composite: 12.94/100
• National rank: #9579
• State rank: #641 of 656 in OH

Livability — Shiloh

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #639
• US rank: #11281

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Shiloh, OH
• County: Montgomery County · 459,541 people
• Metro: Dayton-Kettering, OH
• Population (ZIP): 18,955
• Household income: $43,973
• Rent vs Own: 64.0% rent · 36.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1475.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 523,241 people
• By 2030: 514,948 · -1.6%
• By 2040: 493,378 · -5.7%
• By 2050: 469,639 · -10.2%
• By 2075: 418,360 · -20.0%
• By 2100: 353,315 · -32.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 68% White 23% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.8% · R 49.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.8pp toward R · 2008: 6.2pp · 2024: 0.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+0.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+1.2 2012: D+3.1 2008: D+6.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -125.58%
• Current HPI: 173.4962
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.34%
• Metro: Dayton-Kettering, OH
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

+183.2% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Relisted — Dayton MLS
• 2026-02-09 Pending — Dayton MLS
• 2026-02-05 Price Changed $79,000 Dayton MLS
• 2026-02-01 Relisted — Dayton MLS
• 2026-01-26 Pending — Dayton MLS
• 2026-01-20 Relisted — Dayton MLS
• 2026-01-15 Pending — Dayton MLS
• 2025-12-29 Relisted — Dayton MLS
• 2025-10-28 Pending — Dayton MLS
• 2025-10-24 Price Changed $95,000 Dayton MLS
• 2025-10-08 Price Changed $114,000 Dayton MLS
• 2025-09-10 Listed $125,000 Dayton MLS
• 2009-12-02 Sold (Public Records) $57,500 Public Records
• 2001-04-09 Sold (Public Records) $67,500 Public Records
• 1978-05-03 Sold (Public Records) $27,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+8.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,948 · +24.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.