35407 Vacation Dr #13 · Breezy Point, MN 56472

$100,000

4 bd · 5.0 ba · 2,900 sqft · Townhouse · 293 Days on market

Built 2015 Good condition 12 ac lot $351/mo HOA · 25% of rent ↓ 9% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.9/30.0
• 1% rule +9.2/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.6/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to maintenance free vacation time at Clamshell Beach Resort on the Whitefish Chain! Beautiful lakeside Pinecone Unit comes fully furnished and includes Share 10 (5 weeks of use per year and 1/10th ownership)! Well maintained 4+ bedroom lake home with great room area for entertaining plus porch overlooking Clamshell Lake and beach area. Upper level bunk room provides plenty of sleeping space for guests! Manicured grounds with sport court, play area, fish cleaning house and of course the beautiful sand beach are included in outdoor spaces to enjoy time at the lake. Close proximity to golf courses, restaurants, shopping and all the Brainerd Lakes Area - Whitefish Chain has to offer. If you cannot use a week, rent it through the association/management company. Start making lake life memories on the Whitefish Chain!

Key facts

• $351 HOA
• Pool
• Built 2015

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/5.0-bath townhouse listed at $100k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $84 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $88k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 1.1% in Breezy Point — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#330 in MN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Pequot Lakes Public Schools (rural): math 40% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #137 of 301 in MN (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 272 active listings in the ZIP; 420 units permitted in Crow Wing County in 2024 (17 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Crow Wing County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 293 days — a 12% lower offer ($88k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 25% of rent.

Recommended offer $88,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 293 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
7. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
8. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.42% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.30%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.58%
• DSCR: 1.16
• GRM: 5.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.62×
• Total profit: $-10,647
• Equity at exit: $14,910

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.95×
• Total profit: $-1,458
• Equity at exit: $8,646

Cash invested: $28,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 56472

• Home prices YoY: -10.7%
• Active inventory: 272
• Price-to-rent: 5.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,425 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$125 /mo · $1,500/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$351
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$299
• Net cashflow: $84

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,319

Max offer price $100,000

Occupancy floor 89%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $25,000
• Closing costs: $3,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $351 · $4,212/yr
• Likely covers: landscaping

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-12
   status Pending 830-char remark

   Show marketing remark (830 chars)

   Welcome to maintenance free vacation time at Clamshell Beach Resort on the Whitefish Chain! Beautiful lakeside Pinecone Unit comes fully furnished and includes Share 10 (5 weeks of use per year and 1/10th ownership)! Well maintained 4+ bedroom lake home with great room area for entertaining plus porch overlooking Clamshell Lake and beach area. Upper level bunk room provides plenty of sleeping space for guests! Manicured grounds with sport court, play area, fish cleaning house and of course the beautiful sand beach are included in outdoor spaces to enjoy time at the lake. Close proximity to golf courses, restaurants, shopping and all the Brainerd Lakes Area - Whitefish Chain has to offer. If you cannot use a week, rent it through the association/management company. Start making lake life memories on the Whitefish Chain!

2. 2025-09-04
   price $100,000 830-char remark

   Show marketing remark (830 chars)

   Welcome to maintenance free vacation time at Clamshell Beach Resort on the Whitefish Chain! Beautiful lakeside Pinecone Unit comes fully furnished and includes Share 10 (5 weeks of use per year and 1/10th ownership)! Well maintained 4+ bedroom lake home with great room area for entertaining plus porch overlooking Clamshell Lake and beach area. Upper level bunk room provides plenty of sleeping space for guests! Manicured grounds with sport court, play area, fish cleaning house and of course the beautiful sand beach are included in outdoor spaces to enjoy time at the lake. Close proximity to golf courses, restaurants, shopping and all the Brainerd Lakes Area - Whitefish Chain has to offer. If you cannot use a week, rent it through the association/management company. Start making lake life memories on the Whitefish Chain!

3. 2025-07-24
   listed $110,000 Active 830-char remark

   Show marketing remark (830 chars)

   Welcome to maintenance free vacation time at Clamshell Beach Resort on the Whitefish Chain! Beautiful lakeside Pinecone Unit comes fully furnished and includes Share 10 (5 weeks of use per year and 1/10th ownership)! Well maintained 4+ bedroom lake home with great room area for entertaining plus porch overlooking Clamshell Lake and beach area. Upper level bunk room provides plenty of sleeping space for guests! Manicured grounds with sport court, play area, fish cleaning house and of course the beautiful sand beach are included in outdoor spaces to enjoy time at the lake. Close proximity to golf courses, restaurants, shopping and all the Brainerd Lakes Area - Whitefish Chain has to offer. If you cannot use a week, rent it through the association/management company. Start making lake life memories on the Whitefish Chain!

4. 2025-07-19
   historical $110,000 830-char remark

   Show marketing remark (830 chars)

   Welcome to maintenance free vacation time at Clamshell Beach Resort on the Whitefish Chain! Beautiful lakeside Pinecone Unit comes fully furnished and includes Share 10 (5 weeks of use per year and 1/10th ownership)! Well maintained 4+ bedroom lake home with great room area for entertaining plus porch overlooking Clamshell Lake and beach area. Upper level bunk room provides plenty of sleeping space for guests! Manicured grounds with sport court, play area, fish cleaning house and of course the beautiful sand beach are included in outdoor spaces to enjoy time at the lake. Close proximity to golf courses, restaurants, shopping and all the Brainerd Lakes Area - Whitefish Chain has to offer. If you cannot use a week, rent it through the association/management company. Start making lake life memories on the Whitefish Chain!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,098
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,602
• − Property taxes: −$1,500
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,368
• − Management: −$1,368
• − HOA: −$4,212
• − Depreciation: −$2,909
• Taxable loss: −$361
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$87
• After-tax cash flow: $1,089/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This vacation home is in good condition with a well-maintained exterior and interior. It offers a great lakeside location with a beach and recreational amenities. Upgrades to the exterior and interior will further enhance its appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior siding and updating the landscaping — Painting the exterior and updating the landscaping will enhance the curb appeal and increase both resale and rental value.
• Resale Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Upgrading the kitchen appliances will make the home more appealing to potential buyers.
• Resale Updating the bathrooms with modern fixtures — Updating the bathrooms with modern fixtures will make the home more appealing to potential buyers.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior siding and updating the landscaping — Painting the exterior and updating the landscaping will enhance the curb appeal and increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Resale Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Upgrading the kitchen appliances will make the home more appealing to potential buyers. ↑
• Resale Updating the bathrooms with modern fixtures — Updating the bathrooms with modern fixtures will make the home more appealing to potential buyers. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pequot Lakes Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2728200
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -24.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $51,513
• Composite: 41.62/100
• National rank: #3430
• State rank: #137 of 301 in MN

Livability — Breezy Point

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #330
• US rank: #7469

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 8,764

Population outlook (Crow Wing County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 64,187 people
• By 2030: 64,057 · -0.2%
• By 2040: 62,470 · -2.7%
• By 2050: 59,064 · -8.0%
• By 2075: 48,738 · -24.1%
• By 2100: 36,112 · -43.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 17% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Crow Wing

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.4) · D 33.6% · R 65.0% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -23.7pp toward R · 2008: -7.7pp · 2024: -31.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.4 2020: R+29.7 2016: R+31.8 2012: R+13.4 2008: R+7.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -24.90%
• Current HPI: 208.0163
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

-9.1% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-04 Price Changed $100,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-24 Listed $110,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-19 Coming Soon $110,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid