Mahogany Plan · Dundee, FL 33838

$249,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,452 sqft · SingleFamily · 216 Days on market

$75/mo HOA · 4% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +7.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.8/10.0

Listing remarks

The Mahogany single-family home offers a fresh take on fine living. From your covered front porch or 2-car garage, step into a ranch floor plan that blends convenience and style. There's plenty of room for family and friends in 2 spacious bedrooms, with a full bath just outside their doors. Gather in the great room for movie nights, and don't forget to prep popcorn and other delicious snacks on the gourmet kitchen's large island. Enjoy the night air on your lanai before heading to bed in the sensational owner's suite, featuring a walk-in closet and step-in shower. The good life lives here.

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Walk-in closet
• Gourmet kitchen

Tags

• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• GOURMET KITCHEN
• LARGE ISLAND
• GREAT ROOM
• LANAI
• WALK-IN CLOSET

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Listing status: Active
• Financial info: List price $249,990
• HOA & community: HOA fee approximately $75

Exterior

• Utilities: Central air conditioning (listed under utilities)
• Home design: Mahogany plan (new construction plan); Single-family residence (plan listing)
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1,452

Interior

• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Open interior with 2 bathrooms and 3 bedrooms

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-283 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $209k (16.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $192k (23.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $192k (23.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#638 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: employment D+, schools D, amenities F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 149 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $27k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $25k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$43k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 216 days — a 12% lower offer ($220k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $192,306 (23.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 216 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.93%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.86%
• DSCR: 0.78
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.69×
• Total profit: $118,176
• Equity at exit: $225,211

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.9%
• Equity multiple: 6.18×
• Total profit: $362,353
• Equity at exit: $485,676

Cash invested: $69,997 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33838

• Home prices YoY: 17.6%
• Active inventory: 149
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,923 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$312 /mo · $3,750/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$75
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$404
• Net cashflow: $-283

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,282

Max offer price $208,981

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,498
• Closing costs: $7,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
604 Lime Ave Dundee, FL	3.0	3.0	1694	$2,400	$1.42	23d	1	0.37mi
702 Lemon Ave Dundee, FL	3.0	2.0	1198	$1,800	$1.50	14d	1	0.43mi
217 Betty Ave S Dundee, FL	3.0	2.0	1150	$1,650	$1.43	23d	1	0.77mi
612 Turnberry Ct Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1578	$1,695	$1.07	23d	1	1.28mi
2912 poppy ave, Lake Hamilton, FL	3.0	2.0	1401	$1,925	$1.37	23d	1	1.31mi
1101 Eagle Pond Dr #1101 Winter Haven, FL	2.0	2.0	1017	$1,400	$1.38	23d	1	1.46mi
1202 Eagle Pond Dr Unit 1202 Winter Haven, FL	2.0	2.0	1017	$1,450	$1.43	14d	1	1.48mi
36 Enclave Dr Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1532	$1,990	$1.30	23d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $75 · $900/yr

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $249,990 Active 216 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $249,990 Active 215 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $249,990 Active 214 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $249,990 Active 213 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $249,990 Active 211 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $249,990 Active 208 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $249,990 Active 207 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $249,990 Active 206 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $249,990 Active 205 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $249,990 Active 202 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $249,990 Active 200 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $249,990 Active 199 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $249,990 Active 198 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,077
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,003
• − Property taxes: −$3,750
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,846
• − Management: −$1,846
• − HOA: −$900
• − Depreciation: −$7,272
• Taxable loss: −$7,791
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,870
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,531/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Dundee

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #638
• US rank: #12542

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Dundee, FL
• City population: 5,431
• Population (ZIP): 5,431

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 50% White 30% Black 14% Two or more races 7% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 19% Dominican 6%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 53% English-only · Spanish 47%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 54.34%
• Current HPI: 363.9764
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B