7823 Brushwood Dr · Rosharon, TX
Flood risk 8/10 · Major
- FEMA flood zone
- X (unshaded)
- Chance of flooding over 30 yrs
- 0.99%
- Est. flood insurance / yr
- $507 – $1,088
Fire risk 3/10 · Minor
- Est. fire insurance / yr
- $1,222 – $2,270
Heat risk 9/10 · Severe
- Hot days now (above 110°F)
- 7 days/yr
- Hot days in 30 yrs
- 21 days/yr
Wind risk 9/10 · Severe
- Chance of severe wind over 30 yrs
- 99.0%
Air-quality risk 2/10 · Minimal
- Unhealthy air days now
- 2 days/yr
- Unhealthy air days in 30 yrs
- 2 days/yr
Risk factors via First Street. Map © Google.
Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade
The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).
- ARV discount +10.0/15.0
- Cash flow +7.9/30.0
- 1% rule +4.1/10.0
- Condition / age +4.0/5.0
- Schools +3.7/10.0
- Livability +3.2/5.0
- Rent growth +2.6/5.0
- DSCR +2.0/10.0
- Appreciation +0.0/10.0
$277,000
🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence
Listing remarks
Beautiful single-story featuring 4 bedrooms and 2 full baths with an open-concept layout and modern finishes throughout. This move-in ready home offers luxury vinyl flooring in main areas, carpeted bedrooms, and a stunning gourmet kitchen with quartz countertops, 42” cabinets, stainless steel appliances, oversized island. The private primary suite features high ceilings, dual vanities, a large walk-in shower, and spacious walk-in closet. Three Secondary Bedrooms and 1 Full Bath. Home also includes fridge, washer, dryer, blinds, garage door openers, full irrigation system, landscaping package, tankless water heater, energy-efficient features, and smart home automation.
Key facts
- Quartz countertops
- Gourmet kitchen
- Oversized island
Tags
Neighborhood map
What this means for you Summary
Snapshot
- This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $277k. Condition is rated good.
Deal economics
- At list price, monthly cash flow is $-363 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
- To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $213k (23.1% below list).
- To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $253k (8.6% below list).
- Recommended offer: $213k (23.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
Location & tenants
- Location reads 65/100 on livability (#701 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
- Fort Bend ISD (suburban): math 44% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #140 of 826 in TX (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
- Zoned schools: Heritage Rose El (math 29% / reading 28%, grade F, #2,706 of 4,322 statewide, top 63%, 1,209 students, 83% FRL); Ronald Thornton Middle (math 40% / reading 52%, grade D+, #462 of 1,662 statewide, top 28%, 1,529 students, 41% FRL) — zoned schools average 62% FRL vs 35% district-wide (27 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
- Market conditions: Rents flat; 1736 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 60d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 61% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).
Forward outlook
- Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
- Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
Negotiation context
- It's been on market 119 days — a 9% lower offer ($252k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Risks & watch-outs
- Watch-outs: property tax is 2.8% of price; flood insurance adds $66/mo.
- Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for the listing agent
- What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
- It's been on market 119 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
- Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
- What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
- What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
- Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
- Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
- Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
- The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
- What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
- What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
- How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
Investment metrics
- 1% rule
- 0.91% ✗
- Cap rate
- 5.01%
- Cash-on-cash
- -4.59%
- DSCR
- 0.80
- GRM
- 9.1
CMA / ARV
- ARV (median comp)
- $293,308
- List price
- $277,000
- Delta
- -5.56%
- Verdict
- FAIR
- Comps
- 20 within 1.0 mi
Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi
| Address | Dist | Beds/Ba | Sqft | Sold | Price | $/sf | Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 910 Betsy Hill Dr | 0.54mi | 4/2.0 | 1,648 (-1%) | 0mo | $254,990 | $155 | 73 |
| 8210 Brahman Ln | 0.58mi | 4/2.0 | 1,669 (0%) | 1mo | $279,000 | $167 | 72 |
| 502 Poppy Field Ct | 0.25mi | 4/2.0 | 1,833 (+10%) | 2mo | $275,000 | $150 | 70 |
| 1103 Curly Angora Ct | 0.57mi | 4/2.0 | 1,784 (+7%) | 5mo | $285,000 | $160 | 58 |
| 8219 Oakleaf Meadow Ct | 0.43mi | 3/2.0 (-1) | 1,523 (-9%) | 7mo | $249,900 | $164 | 55 |
| 8223 Hush Heights Dr | 0.54mi | 3/2.0 (-1) | 1,560 (-6%) | 6mo | $230,000 | $147 | 54 |
| 831 Petunia Falls Ln | 0.56mi | 4/2.0 | 1,833 (+10%) | 6mo | $269,900 | $147 | 53 |
| 7219 Victorville Dr | 0.68mi | 3/2.0 (-1) | 1,759 (+5%) | 6mo | $267,000 | $152 | 49 |
| 8319 Tartan Ct | 0.50mi | 4/2.5 | 1,896 (+14%) | 4mo | $260,000 | $137 | 49 |
| 1219 Minerals Ln | 0.69mi | 3/2.0 (-1) | 1,575 (-6%) | 6mo | $269,000 | $171 | 49 |
| 8435 Sacred Lotus Ln | 0.64mi | 4/2.0 | 1,860 (+11%) | 6mo | $279,500 | $150 | 46 |
| 1115 Della Ln | 0.68mi | 4/2.0 | 1,879 (+13%) | 6mo | $300,000 | $160 | 42 |
Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.
Projected returns pro-forma
-3.0% appreciation · 0.44% rent growth · sell at horizon
- IRR
- -29.5%
- Equity multiple
- 0.05×
- Total profit
- $-74,047
- Equity at exit
- $41,302
- IRR
- -50.7%
- Equity multiple
- -0.52×
- Total profit
- $-117,756
- Equity at exit
- $23,950
Cash invested: $77,560 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.
Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology
- Overall (STATE)
- 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
- State Texas
- 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
- County
- — inherits STATE
- City
- — inherits STATE
Active competition Active MLS
- For sale now
- 60 active · 28 under contract
- Months of supply
- 11.6 mo (9%/mo absorbed)
- Median asking
- $285,000 ($155/sqft)
- Median days on market
- 48 d
- This list price
- 40% of active listings are priced below it
- ARV vs active asking
- +13.1% above current asking $/sqft
Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.
ZIP-level market 77583
- Rents YoY
- 0.4%
- Active inventory
- 1736
- Price-to-rent
- 9.1×
Monthly cashflow live
- Estimated rent
- $2,531 high interval (Pro) →
- Mortgage (P&I)
- −$1,453
- Tax from tax record
- −$653 /mo · $7,838/yr
- Insurance
- −$115
- Flood insurance flood zone
- −$66 /mo · $798/yr
- HOA
- −$75
- Lot rent
- −$0
- Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
- −$532
- Net cashflow
- $-363
Break-even live
Sensitivity live
| Price | -10% $-206 | -5% $-285 | +0% $-363 | +5% $-441 | +10% $-520 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rent | -10% $-563 | -5% $-463 | +0% $-363 | +5% $-263 | +10% $-163 |
| Rate | -1.0pp $-223 | -0.5pp $-293 | base $-363 | +0.5pp $-435 | +1.0pp $-508 |
UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt
Financing live
Cash to close
- Down payment
- $69,250
- Closing costs
- $8,310
- Club membership (one-time)
- —
- Reserves months
- —
- Total cash needed
- —
Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live
Conventional
25% down · 7.5% · 30yr
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.
DSCR
20% down · 8.5% · 30yr
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.
Hard money
10% down · 12.0% · 12mo
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.
Rent comps 18 comps
| Address | Beds | Baths | Sqft | Rent | $/sqft | DOM | Units | Dist |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 423 Ashley Falls Ln Rosharon, TX | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1373 | $1,879 | $1.37 | 4d | 1 | 0.23mi |
| 7731 Suffolk Valley Ln Rosharon, TX | 4.0 | 2.0 | 1835 | $2,500 | $1.36 | 11d | 1 | 0.23mi |
| 407 Ashley Falls Ln Rosharon, TX | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1704 | $2,195 | $1.29 | 64d | 1 | 0.24mi |
| 8102 Rose Petals Ln Rosharon, TX | 4.0 | 2.0 | 1833 | $2,830 | $1.54 | 59d | 1 | 0.35mi |
| 7915 Murciana Dr Rosharon, TX | 4.0 | 2.0 | 2045 | $2,400 | $1.17 | 11d | 1 | 0.43mi |
| 8310 Rose Petals Ln Rosharon, TX | 4.0 | 2.0 | 1833 | $2,300 | $1.25 | 139d | 1 | 0.50mi |
| 8223 Wainwright Way Rosharon, TX | 4.0 | 2.5 | 2172 | $2,340 | $1.08 | 42d | 1 | 0.52mi |
| 1107 Curly Angora Ct Rosharon, TX | 4.0 | 2.0 | 2061 | $2,400 | $1.16 | 40d | 1 | 0.56mi |
| 8419 Ideal Dr Rosharon, TX | 4.0 | 2.0 | 1833 | $2,125 | $1.16 | 24d | 1 | 0.63mi |
| 7215 Victorville Dr Rosharon, TX | 4.0 | 2.5 | 2152 | $2,326 | $1.08 | 5d | 1 | 0.66mi |
| 8102 Buck Ln Rosharon, TX | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1409 | $2,100 | $1.49 | 139d | 1 | 0.73mi |
| 8219 House Dr Rosharon, TX | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1263 | $1,970 | $1.56 | 118d | 1 | 0.76mi |
| 1119 Toledo Bend Pass Rosharon, TX | 5.0 | 3.0 | 2200 | $2,500 | $1.14 | 139d | 1 | 0.82mi |
| 6911 Rosemont Ct Rosharon, TX | 4.0 | 2.0 | 1719 | $1,750 | $1.02 | 108d | 1 | 0.83mi |
| 7218 Bakersfield Ct Rosharon, TX | 3.0 | 2.5 | 2004 | $2,200 | $1.10 | 139d | 1 | 0.88mi |
| 8722 Dairy Farm Trl Rosharon, TX | 4.0 | 2.5 | 2133 | $2,295 | $1.08 | 18d | 1 | 0.97mi |
| 6822 Altadena Dr Rosharon, TX | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1764 | $1,970 | $1.12 | 18d | 1 | 0.98mi |
| 1014 Star Grass Ln Rosharon, TX | 4.0 | 2.0 | 2067 | $2,375 | $1.15 | 139d | 1 | 1.15mi |
Property features AI
Finance
- Other
- Energy-efficient features for appliances, HVAC, insulation, thermostat, water heater, and windowsMunicipal Utility District and seller disclosures available
- HOA & community
- HOA managed by InframarkAnnual association fee of $900Community pool
Exterior
- Parking
- Attached garage with garage door opener (2 spaces)
- Security
- Prewired securitySmoke detectors
- Utilities
- Public waterPublic sewer
- Home design
- Residential propertySingle-story (all main rooms listed on first floor)
- Construction
- Brick constructionBuilt in 2022Composition roofSlab foundation
- Exterior features
- DeckPatioFenced backyardSprinkler/irrigation system
Interior
- Kitchen
- DishwasherElectric ovenGas rangeMicrowaveGarbage disposalRefrigeratorKitchen islandBreakfast barPantry
- Bedrooms
- Primary bedroom on first floor (15x14)Bedroom on first floor (11x10)Bedroom on first floor (11x11)Bedroom on first floor (11x10)
- Flooring
- CarpetVinyl
- Bathrooms
- 2 full bathroomsDouble vanity in primary bath
- Heating & cooling
- Central heating (gas)Central air (electric)Programmable thermostat
- Interior features
- Breakfast barDouble vanityKitchen islandKitchen/family room comboPantryTub with showerCeiling fansKitchen/dining comboProgrammable thermostatLow-emissivity windows
- Laundry & utility
- Washer hookupElectric dryer hookupWasherDryerTankless water heater
HOA detail $75/mo · $900/yr
- Likely covers
- waterlandscaping
Listing history 50 events
-
2026-09-24days on market $277,000 Active 119 DOM
-
2026-09-23days on market $277,000 Active 118 DOM
-
2026-09-22days on market $277,000 Active 117 DOM
-
2026-09-21days on market $277,000 Active 116 DOM
-
2026-09-20days on market $277,000 Active 115 DOM
-
2026-09-19days on market $277,000 Active 114 DOM
-
2026-09-18days on market $277,000 Active 113 DOM
-
2026-09-17days on market $277,000 Active 112 DOM
-
2026-09-16days on market $277,000 Active 111 DOM
-
2026-09-15days on market $277,000 Active 110 DOM
-
2026-09-14days on market $277,000 Active 109 DOM
-
2026-09-13days on market $277,000 Active 108 DOM
-
2026-09-12days on market $277,000 Active 107 DOM
-
2026-09-11days on market $277,000 Active 106 DOM
-
2026-09-05days on market $277,000 Active 100 DOM
-
2026-09-04days on market $277,000 Active 99 DOM
-
2026-08-31days on market $277,000 Active 95 DOM
-
2026-08-30days on market $277,000 Active 94 DOM
-
2026-08-29days on market $277,000 Active 93 DOM
-
2026-08-28days on market $277,000 Active 92 DOM
-
2026-08-27days on market $277,000 Active 91 DOM
-
2026-08-25days on market $277,000 Active 89 DOM
-
2026-08-24days on market $277,000 Active 88 DOM
-
2026-08-23days on market $277,000 Active 87 DOM
-
2026-08-22days on market $277,000 Active 86 DOM
-
2026-08-21days on market $277,000 Active 85 DOM
-
2026-08-20days on market $277,000 Active 84 DOM
-
2026-08-19days on market $277,000 Active 83 DOM
-
2026-08-18days on market $277,000 Active 82 DOM
-
2026-08-17days on market $277,000 Active 81 DOM
-
2026-08-16days on market $277,000 Active 80 DOM
-
2026-08-15days on market $277,000 Active 79 DOM
-
2026-08-14days on market $277,000 Active 78 DOM
-
2026-08-13days on market $277,000 Active 77 DOM
-
2026-08-12days on market $277,000 Active 76 DOM
-
2026-08-11days on market $277,000 Active 75 DOM
-
2026-08-10days on market $277,000 Active 74 DOM
-
2026-08-09days on market $277,000 Active 73 DOM
-
2026-08-08days on market $277,000 Active 72 DOM
-
2026-08-06days on market $277,000 Active 70 DOM
-
2026-08-05days on market $277,000 Active 69 DOM
-
2026-08-04days on market $277,000 Active 68 DOM
-
2026-08-03pricedays on market $277,000 Active 67 DOM
-
2026-07-31days on market $285,000 Active 64 DOM
-
2026-07-30days on market $285,000 Active 62 DOM
-
2026-07-28days on market $285,000 Active 61 DOM
-
2026-07-26days on market $285,000 Active 59 DOM
-
2026-07-24days on market $285,000 Active 57 DOM
-
2026-07-23days on market $285,000 Active 56 DOM
-
2026-07-22days on market $285,000 Active 55 DOM
ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot
backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.
Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price
- Current annual tax
- $7,838 · $653/mo
- Projected year-2 tax
- $7,838 · $653/mo
- Expected delta
- $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)
ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.
Climate risk First Street
- Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
- Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
- Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
- Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
- Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out
Nearby sold comps map
Loading sold comps map…
Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi
Loading nearby amenities…
Taxation est. · year 1
- Rental income
- $30,376
- − Mortgage interest
- −$15,516
- − Property taxes
- −$7,838
- − Insurance
- −$2,182
- − Repairs & maintenance
- −$2,430
- − Management
- −$2,430
- − HOA
- −$900
- − Depreciation
- −$8,058
- Taxable loss
- −$8,980
- Est. tax savings @ 24.0%
- +$2,155
- After-tax cash flow
- $-2,200/yr
For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.
Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos
This move-in ready single-story home features modern finishes, luxury vinyl flooring, and a private primary suite with dual vanities and a walk-in shower. It is in good condition with no visible repairs needed.
Value-add opportunities
- Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
- Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
- Both Replace blinds — Improves home's curb appeal and functionality ↑
Zoned Schools
Schools (NCES district)
- District
- Fort Bend ISD
- NCES district ID
- 4819650
- Math proficiency
- 44% ▼ -15.00%
- Reading proficiency
- 53% ▼ -4.00%
- Median HH income
- $82,360
- Composite
- 44.61/100
- National rank
- #2779
- State rank
- #140 of 826 in TX
Livability — Rosharon
- Score
- 65/100
- State rank
- #701
- US rank
- #13120
Category grades
Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.
Census & demographics
- County
- Brazoria County · 1,004,526 people
- Metro
- Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
- Population (ZIP)
- 52,747
- Household income
- $119,287
- Rent vs Own
Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2
- Today (2025)
- 1,004,526 people
- By 2030
- 1,153,104 · +14.8%
- By 2040
- 1,453,718 · +44.7%
- By 2050
- 1,753,781 · +74.6%
- By 2075
- 2,455,772 · +144.5%
- By 2100
- 2,930,528 · +191.7%
Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023
- Neighborhood character
- Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
- Race & ethnicity
- Hispanic / Latino 38% Black 34% White 20% Two or more races 18% Asian 5%
- Hispanic origin (detail)
- Mexican 31% Puerto Rican 2%
- Common ancestry
- Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
- Foreign-born
- 16% · Canada, Vietnam, China
- Languages at home
- 64% English-only · Spanish 28% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Vietnamese 1%
Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend
- 2024 margin
- Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
- 2008→2024 swing
- +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
- All cycles
- 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4
Not yet ingested
- Civics
- —
Market trends
- HPI YoY
- ▼ -120.19%
- Current HPI
- 198.6559
- Rent YoY
- ▲ 0.44%
- Metro
- Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
- State GDP YoY
- ▲ 3.95%
- F500 in state
- 110
Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)
| Industry | F500 HQs | Revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Energy | 16 | $1,198B |
|
||
| Technology | 5 | $198B |
|
||
| Engineering / Construction | 4 | $72B |
|
||
| Energy Services | 3 | $60B |
|
||
| Utilities | 3 | $41B |
|
||
| Healthcare | 2 | $330B |
|
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Price history
2 events — show timeline
- 2026-06-27 Pending — HARMLS
- 2026-05-28 Listed $285,000 HARMLS
Property tax history
+80.3%/yrLatest (2025): $7,838 · +0.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.
Cash-flow waterfall
monthlySold comps — $/sqft
last 12 mo · ≤1 miLoading sold comps…