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7823 Brushwood Dr
D- Composite 37.58
Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

  • ARV discount +10.0/15.0
  • Cash flow +7.9/30.0
  • 1% rule +4.1/10.0
  • Condition / age +4.0/5.0
  • Schools +3.7/10.0
  • Livability +3.2/5.0
  • Rent growth +2.6/5.0
  • DSCR +2.0/10.0
  • Appreciation +0.0/10.0

$277,000

7823 Brushwood Dr · Rosharon, TX 77583
4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,669 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 119 Days on market
Built 2022 Good condition 5,998 sqft lot Garage $166/sqft · 6% below area Est $293k · 6% under $75/mo HOA · 3% of rent

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks

Beautiful single-story featuring 4 bedrooms and 2 full baths with an open-concept layout and modern finishes throughout. This move-in ready home offers luxury vinyl flooring in main areas, carpeted bedrooms, and a stunning gourmet kitchen with quartz countertops, 42” cabinets, stainless steel appliances, oversized island. The private primary suite features high ceilings, dual vanities, a large walk-in shower, and spacious walk-in closet. Three Secondary Bedrooms and 1 Full Bath. Home also includes fridge, washer, dryer, blinds, garage door openers, full irrigation system, landscaping package, tankless water heater, energy-efficient features, and smart home automation.

Key facts

  • Quartz countertops
  • Gourmet kitchen
  • Oversized island

Tags

OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUTGOURMET KITCHENQUARTZ COUNTERTOPSSTAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCESOVERSIZED ISLANDPRIVATE PRIMARY SUITE

Neighborhood map

Property Rental comp Retail Costco Walmart Transit Schools Stadiums Fortune 500 · Circle radius: 6.0 mi
Loading POIs…

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

  • This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $277k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

  • At list price, monthly cash flow is $-363 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
  • To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $213k (23.1% below list).
  • To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $253k (8.6% below list).
  • Recommended offer: $213k (23.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

  • Location reads 65/100 on livability (#701 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
  • Fort Bend ISD (suburban): math 44% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #140 of 826 in TX (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
  • Zoned schools: Heritage Rose El (math 29% / reading 28%, grade F, #2,706 of 4,322 statewide, top 63%, 1,209 students, 83% FRL); Ronald Thornton Middle (math 40% / reading 52%, grade D+, #462 of 1,662 statewide, top 28%, 1,529 students, 41% FRL) — zoned schools average 62% FRL vs 35% district-wide (27 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
  • Market conditions: Rents flat; 1736 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 60d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 61% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

  • Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
  • Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

  • It's been on market 119 days — a 9% lower offer ($252k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

  • Watch-outs: property tax is 2.8% of price; flood insurance adds $66/mo.
  • Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Recommended offer $212,882 (23.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

  1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
  2. It's been on market 119 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
  3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
  4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
  5. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
  6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
  7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
  8. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
  9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
  10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
  11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
  12. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule
0.91%
Cap rate
5.01%
Cash-on-cash
-4.59%
DSCR
0.80
GRM
9.1

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp)
$293,308
List price
$277,000
Delta
-5.56%
Verdict
FAIR
Comps
20 within 1.0 mi
Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi
Address Dist Beds/Ba Sqft Sold Price $/sf Match
910 Betsy Hill Dr 0.54mi 4/2.0 1,648 (-1%) 0mo $254,990 $155 73
8210 Brahman Ln 0.58mi 4/2.0 1,669 (0%) 1mo $279,000 $167 72
502 Poppy Field Ct 0.25mi 4/2.0 1,833 (+10%) 2mo $275,000 $150 70
1103 Curly Angora Ct 0.57mi 4/2.0 1,784 (+7%) 5mo $285,000 $160 58
8219 Oakleaf Meadow Ct 0.43mi 3/2.0 (-1) 1,523 (-9%) 7mo $249,900 $164 55
8223 Hush Heights Dr 0.54mi 3/2.0 (-1) 1,560 (-6%) 6mo $230,000 $147 54
831 Petunia Falls Ln 0.56mi 4/2.0 1,833 (+10%) 6mo $269,900 $147 53
7219 Victorville Dr 0.68mi 3/2.0 (-1) 1,759 (+5%) 6mo $267,000 $152 49
8319 Tartan Ct 0.50mi 4/2.5 1,896 (+14%) 4mo $260,000 $137 49
1219 Minerals Ln 0.69mi 3/2.0 (-1) 1,575 (-6%) 6mo $269,000 $171 49
8435 Sacred Lotus Ln 0.64mi 4/2.0 1,860 (+11%) 6mo $279,500 $150 46
1115 Della Ln 0.68mi 4/2.0 1,879 (+13%) 6mo $300,000 $160 42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.44% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold
IRR
-29.5%
Equity multiple
0.05×
Total profit
$-74,047
Equity at exit
$41,302
10-year hold
IRR
-50.7%
Equity multiple
-0.52×
Total profit
$-117,756
Equity at exit
$23,950

Cash invested: $77,560 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE)
87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Texas
87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
County
— inherits STATE
City
— inherits STATE
3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.
Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now
60 active · 28 under contract
Months of supply
11.6 mo (9%/mo absorbed)
Median asking
$285,000 ($155/sqft)
Median days on market
48 d
This list price
40% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking
+13.1% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77583

Rents YoY
0.4%
Active inventory
1736
Price-to-rent
9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent
$2,531 high interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I)
$1,453
Tax from tax record
$653 /mo · $7,838/yr
Insurance
$115
Flood insurance flood zone
−$66 /mo · $798/yr
HOA
$75
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
$532
Net cashflow
$-363

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,991
Max offer price $212,882
Occupancy floor

Sensitivity live

Price -10% $-206 -5% $-285 +0% $-363 +5% $-441 +10% $-520
Rent -10% $-563 -5% $-463 +0% $-363 +5% $-263 +10% $-163
Rate -1.0pp $-223 -0.5pp $-293 base $-363 +0.5pp $-435 +1.0pp $-508

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment
$69,250
Closing costs
$8,310
Reserves months
Total cash needed

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 18 comps

AddressBedsBaths SqftRent$/sqft DOM Units Dist
423 Ashley Falls Ln Rosharon, TX 3.0 2.0 1373 $1,879 $1.37 4d 1 0.23mi
7731 Suffolk Valley Ln Rosharon, TX 4.0 2.0 1835 $2,500 $1.36 11d 1 0.23mi
407 Ashley Falls Ln Rosharon, TX 3.0 2.0 1704 $2,195 $1.29 64d 1 0.24mi
8102 Rose Petals Ln Rosharon, TX 4.0 2.0 1833 $2,830 $1.54 59d 1 0.35mi
7915 Murciana Dr Rosharon, TX 4.0 2.0 2045 $2,400 $1.17 11d 1 0.43mi
8310 Rose Petals Ln Rosharon, TX 4.0 2.0 1833 $2,300 $1.25 139d 1 0.50mi
8223 Wainwright Way Rosharon, TX 4.0 2.5 2172 $2,340 $1.08 42d 1 0.52mi
1107 Curly Angora Ct Rosharon, TX 4.0 2.0 2061 $2,400 $1.16 40d 1 0.56mi
8419 Ideal Dr Rosharon, TX 4.0 2.0 1833 $2,125 $1.16 24d 1 0.63mi
7215 Victorville Dr Rosharon, TX 4.0 2.5 2152 $2,326 $1.08 5d 1 0.66mi
8102 Buck Ln Rosharon, TX 3.0 2.0 1409 $2,100 $1.49 139d 1 0.73mi
8219 House Dr Rosharon, TX 3.0 2.0 1263 $1,970 $1.56 118d 1 0.76mi
1119 Toledo Bend Pass Rosharon, TX 5.0 3.0 2200 $2,500 $1.14 139d 1 0.82mi
6911 Rosemont Ct Rosharon, TX 4.0 2.0 1719 $1,750 $1.02 108d 1 0.83mi
7218 Bakersfield Ct Rosharon, TX 3.0 2.5 2004 $2,200 $1.10 139d 1 0.88mi
8722 Dairy Farm Trl Rosharon, TX 4.0 2.5 2133 $2,295 $1.08 18d 1 0.97mi
6822 Altadena Dr Rosharon, TX 3.0 2.0 1764 $1,970 $1.12 18d 1 0.98mi
1014 Star Grass Ln Rosharon, TX 4.0 2.0 2067 $2,375 $1.15 139d 1 1.15mi

Property features AI

Finance

Other
Energy-efficient features for appliances, HVAC, insulation, thermostat, water heater, and windowsMunicipal Utility District and seller disclosures available
HOA & community
HOA managed by InframarkAnnual association fee of $900Community pool

Exterior

Parking
Attached garage with garage door opener (2 spaces)
Security
Prewired securitySmoke detectors
Utilities
Public waterPublic sewer
Home design
Residential propertySingle-story (all main rooms listed on first floor)
Construction
Brick constructionBuilt in 2022Composition roofSlab foundation
Exterior features
DeckPatioFenced backyardSprinkler/irrigation system

Interior

Kitchen
DishwasherElectric ovenGas rangeMicrowaveGarbage disposalRefrigeratorKitchen islandBreakfast barPantry
Bedrooms
Primary bedroom on first floor (15x14)Bedroom on first floor (11x10)Bedroom on first floor (11x11)Bedroom on first floor (11x10)
Flooring
CarpetVinyl
Bathrooms
2 full bathroomsDouble vanity in primary bath
Heating & cooling
Central heating (gas)Central air (electric)Programmable thermostat
Interior features
Breakfast barDouble vanityKitchen islandKitchen/family room comboPantryTub with showerCeiling fansKitchen/dining comboProgrammable thermostatLow-emissivity windows
Laundry & utility
Washer hookupElectric dryer hookupWasherDryerTankless water heater

HOA detail $75/mo · $900/yr

Likely covers
waterlandscaping

Listing history 50 events

  1. 2026-09-24
    days on market $277,000 Active 119 DOM
  2. 2026-09-23
    days on market $277,000 Active 118 DOM
  3. 2026-09-22
    days on market $277,000 Active 117 DOM
  4. 2026-09-21
    days on market $277,000 Active 116 DOM
  5. 2026-09-20
    days on market $277,000 Active 115 DOM
  6. 2026-09-19
    days on market $277,000 Active 114 DOM
  7. 2026-09-18
    days on market $277,000 Active 113 DOM
  8. 2026-09-17
    days on market $277,000 Active 112 DOM
  9. 2026-09-16
    days on market $277,000 Active 111 DOM
  10. 2026-09-15
    days on market $277,000 Active 110 DOM
  11. 2026-09-14
    days on market $277,000 Active 109 DOM
  12. 2026-09-13
    days on market $277,000 Active 108 DOM
  13. 2026-09-12
    days on market $277,000 Active 107 DOM
  14. 2026-09-11
    days on market $277,000 Active 106 DOM
  15. 2026-09-05
    days on market $277,000 Active 100 DOM
  16. 2026-09-04
    days on market $277,000 Active 99 DOM
  17. 2026-08-31
    days on market $277,000 Active 95 DOM
  18. 2026-08-30
    days on market $277,000 Active 94 DOM
  19. 2026-08-29
    days on market $277,000 Active 93 DOM
  20. 2026-08-28
    days on market $277,000 Active 92 DOM
  21. 2026-08-27
    days on market $277,000 Active 91 DOM
  22. 2026-08-25
    days on market $277,000 Active 89 DOM
  23. 2026-08-24
    days on market $277,000 Active 88 DOM
  24. 2026-08-23
    days on market $277,000 Active 87 DOM
  25. 2026-08-22
    days on market $277,000 Active 86 DOM
  26. 2026-08-21
    days on market $277,000 Active 85 DOM
  27. 2026-08-20
    days on market $277,000 Active 84 DOM
  28. 2026-08-19
    days on market $277,000 Active 83 DOM
  29. 2026-08-18
    days on market $277,000 Active 82 DOM
  30. 2026-08-17
    days on market $277,000 Active 81 DOM
  31. 2026-08-16
    days on market $277,000 Active 80 DOM
  32. 2026-08-15
    days on market $277,000 Active 79 DOM
  33. 2026-08-14
    days on market $277,000 Active 78 DOM
  34. 2026-08-13
    days on market $277,000 Active 77 DOM
  35. 2026-08-12
    days on market $277,000 Active 76 DOM
  36. 2026-08-11
    days on market $277,000 Active 75 DOM
  37. 2026-08-10
    days on market $277,000 Active 74 DOM
  38. 2026-08-09
    days on market $277,000 Active 73 DOM
  39. 2026-08-08
    days on market $277,000 Active 72 DOM
  40. 2026-08-06
    days on market $277,000 Active 70 DOM
  41. 2026-08-05
    days on market $277,000 Active 69 DOM
  42. 2026-08-04
    days on market $277,000 Active 68 DOM
  43. 2026-08-03
    pricedays on market $277,000 Active 67 DOM
  44. 2026-07-31
    days on market $285,000 Active 64 DOM
  45. 2026-07-30
    days on market $285,000 Active 62 DOM
  46. 2026-07-28
    days on market $285,000 Active 61 DOM
  47. 2026-07-26
    days on market $285,000 Active 59 DOM
  48. 2026-07-24
    days on market $285,000 Active 57 DOM
  49. 2026-07-23
    days on market $285,000 Active 56 DOM
  50. 2026-07-22
    days on market $285,000 Active 55 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

Current annual tax
$7,838 · $653/mo
Projected year-2 tax
$7,838 · $653/mo
Expected delta
$0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

  • 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
  • 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
  • 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
  • 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
  • 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income
$30,376
− Mortgage interest
−$15,516
− Property taxes
−$7,838
− Insurance
−$2,182
− Repairs & maintenance
−$2,430
− Management
−$2,430
− HOA
−$900
− Depreciation
−$8,058
Taxable loss
−$8,980
combined federal + state — saved on this device
Est. tax savings @ 24.0%
+$2,155
After-tax cash flow
$-2,200/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This move-in ready single-story home features modern finishes, luxury vinyl flooring, and a private primary suite with dual vanities and a walk-in shower. It is in good condition with no visible repairs needed.

Value-add opportunities

  • Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
  • Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value
  • Both Replace blinds — Improves home's curb appeal and functionality
F Composite school gradezoned avg 37/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Heritage Rose El F TX #2,706/4,322 Nat'l #28,012/41,679 Middle Ronald Thornton Middle D+ TX #462/1,662 Nat'l #4,433/14,009 High Almeta Crawford H S

Schools (NCES district)

District
Fort Bend ISD
NCES district ID
4819650
Math proficiency
44% ▼ -15.00%
Reading proficiency
53% ▼ -4.00%
Median HH income
$82,360
Composite
44.61/100
National rank
#2779
State rank
#140 of 826 in TX
C Composite livability gradescore 65/100

Livability — Rosharon

Score
65/100
State rank
#701
US rank
#13120

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

County
Brazoria County · 1,004,526 people
Metro
Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
Population (ZIP)
52,747
Household income
$119,287
Rent vs Own
9.8% rent · 90.2% own

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025)
1,004,526 people
By 2030
1,153,104 · +14.8%
By 2040
1,453,718 · +44.7%
By 2050
1,753,781 · +74.6%
By 2075
2,455,772 · +144.5%
By 2100
2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character
Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
Race & ethnicity
Hispanic / Latino 38% Black 34% White 20% Two or more races 18% Asian 5%
Hispanic origin (detail)
Mexican 31% Puerto Rican 2%
Common ancestry
Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
Foreign-born
16% · Canada, Vietnam, China
Languages at home
64% English-only · Spanish 28% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

2024 margin
Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
2008→2024 swing
+4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
All cycles
2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

Civics

Price history

2 events — show timeline
  • 2026-06-27 Pending HARMLS
  • 2026-05-28 Listed $285,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+80.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,838 · +0.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

Loading sold comps…