4 Stonybrook Ct #60 · Crestwood Village, NJ 08759

$56,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,922 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 12 Days on market

Built 1980 $131/mo HOA · 6% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This is an awe-inspiring beautifully comfortable home with many luxury features including a 2-car garage. Situated on a cul-de-sac with plenty of space for entertaining. Kitchen has lots of built-ins for storage. plenty of counter space and up-to-date appliances. The living room and dining room are spacious and can be introduced to your guests through a well-designed front door vestibule. The master bedroom suite has a walk-in closet and a private bath with a full walk-in shower and a separate bathtub with a jacuzzi.. Your guest room is more than a comfortable size. Separate roomy laundry room with outside access and access to 2 car garage. Monthly fee includes grass cutting, snow removal, free bus to various shopping centers, exercise room, dart room and many other activities in a v

Key facts

• $131 HOA
• Garage
• Built 1980

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $56k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($15k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $56k).
• Cap rate 33.9% vs local median 5.6% in Crestwood Village — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#422 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A, housing A, health & safety B+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Manchester Township School District (suburban): math 25% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #320 of 472 in NJ (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 648 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $387 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $16k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 9y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $184k (77%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 67% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $56,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 33.95%
• Cash-on-cash: 98.76%
• DSCR: 5.39
• GRM: 2.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $384,400
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7 Ardmore St #61	0.06mi	2/2.5	2,000 (+4%)	15mo	$400,000	$200	76
6 Holyoke Ct	0.39mi	2/2.0	1,826 (-5%)	0mo	$262,000	$143	73
25 Dartmouth St #61	0.35mi	2/2.5	1,826 (-5%)	5mo	$350,000	$192	69
27 Amesbury Rd #64	0.73mi	2/2.0	1,826 (-5%)	1mo	$369,000	$202	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 99.8%
• Equity multiple: 5.67×
• Total profit: $73,234
• Equity at exit: $8,350

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 11.85×
• Total profit: $170,074
• Equity at exit: $4,842

Cash invested: $15,680 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08759

• Active inventory: 648
• Price-to-rent: 2.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,289 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$294
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$70 /mo · $840/yr
• Insurance: −$23
• HOA: −$131
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$481
• Net cashflow: $1,291

Break-even live

Break-even rent $656

Max offer price $56,000

Occupancy floor 39%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $14,000
• Closing costs: $1,680
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9B Portsmouth St Unit 54B Whiting, NJ	2.0	2.0	1544	$2,400	$1.55	1d	1	0.24mi
9B Portsmouth St Unit 54B Whiting, NJ	2.0	2.0	1544	$2,350	$1.52	20d	1	0.24mi
16B Ivy Ct Unit A Manchester Township, NJ	2.0	2.0	1544	$2,400	$1.55	1d	1	0.43mi
24 Partridge Pl Manchester Township, NJ	3.0	2.0	1248	$1,780	$1.43	12d	1	1.26mi
1 Morning Glory Ln Whiting, NJ	2.0	2.5	1312	$1,200	$0.91	3d	1	1.46mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $131 · $1,572/yr
• Likely covers: snow removal

Listing history 11 events

1. 2021-01-05
   soldstatus $239,000
2. 2020-12-02
   soldstatus $239,000 Sold 800-char remark

   Show marketing remark (800 chars)

   This is an awe-inspiring beautifully comfortable home with many luxury features including a 2-car garage. Situated on a cul-de-sac with plenty of space for entertaining. Kitchen has lots of built-ins for storage. plenty of counter space and up-to-date appliances. The living room and dining room are spacious and can be introduced to your guests through a well-designed front door vestibule. The master bedroom suite has a walk-in closet and a private bath with a full walk-in shower and a separate bathtub with a jacuzzi.. Your guest room is more than a comfortable size. Separate roomy laundry room with outside access and access to 2 car garage. Monthly fee includes grass cutting, snow removal, free bus to various shopping centers, exercise room, dart room and many other activities in a v

3. 2020-09-16
   status Pending 800-char remark

   Show marketing remark (800 chars)

   This is an awe-inspiring beautifully comfortable home with many luxury features including a 2-car garage. Situated on a cul-de-sac with plenty of space for entertaining. Kitchen has lots of built-ins for storage. plenty of counter space and up-to-date appliances. The living room and dining room are spacious and can be introduced to your guests through a well-designed front door vestibule. The master bedroom suite has a walk-in closet and a private bath with a full walk-in shower and a separate bathtub with a jacuzzi.. Your guest room is more than a comfortable size. Separate roomy laundry room with outside access and access to 2 car garage. Monthly fee includes grass cutting, snow removal, free bus to various shopping centers, exercise room, dart room and many other activities in a v

4. 2020-08-08
   listed $239,500 Active 800-char remark

   Show marketing remark (800 chars)

   This is an awe-inspiring beautifully comfortable home with many luxury features including a 2-car garage. Situated on a cul-de-sac with plenty of space for entertaining. Kitchen has lots of built-ins for storage. plenty of counter space and up-to-date appliances. The living room and dining room are spacious and can be introduced to your guests through a well-designed front door vestibule. The master bedroom suite has a walk-in closet and a private bath with a full walk-in shower and a separate bathtub with a jacuzzi.. Your guest room is more than a comfortable size. Separate roomy laundry room with outside access and access to 2 car garage. Monthly fee includes grass cutting, snow removal, free bus to various shopping centers, exercise room, dart room and many other activities in a v

5. 2019-09-13
   status Pending
6. 2019-09-11
   historical
7. 2019-09-10
   status Pending
8. 2017-06-12
   status Under Contract
9. 2017-05-31
   listed $56,000 Active
10. 1998-07-27
    soldstatus $117,000
11. 1980-09-01
    soldstatus $93,730

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 67% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,471
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,137
• − Property taxes: −$840
• − Insurance: −$280
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,198
• − Management: −$2,198
• − HOA: −$1,572
• − Depreciation: −$1,629
• Taxable income: $15,618
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,748
• After-tax cash flow: $11,738/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manchester Township School District
• NCES district ID: 3409450
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $38,905
• Composite: 28.8/100
• National rank: #6662
• State rank: #320 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Crestwood Village

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #422
• US rank: #15006

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime C+ Employment F Housing A Health & safety B+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Crestwood Village, NJ
• City population: 34,290
• Population (ZIP): 34,290

Population outlook (Ocean County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 586,991 people
• By 2030: 581,403 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 564,913 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 538,149 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 468,845 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 350,297 · -40.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 4% Two or more races 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Scotch-Irish 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Ocean

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.0) · D 31.4% · R 67.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -36.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.0 2020: R+28.7 2016: R+34.0 2012: R+17.7 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -347.85%
• Current HPI: 274.4679
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+155.0% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2021-01-05 Sold (Public Records) $239,000 Public Records
• 2020-12-02 Sold (MLS) $239,000 MOMLS
• 2020-09-16 Pending — MOMLS
• 2020-08-08 Listed $239,500 MOMLS
• 2019-09-13 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2019-09-11 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2019-09-10 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2017-06-12 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2017-05-31 Listed $56,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 1998-07-27 Sold (Public Records) $117,000 Public Records
• 1980-09-01 Sold (Public Records) $93,730 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,850 · +14.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.