2603 Suzie Q Dr · Lake Isabella, CA 93240

$156,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Manufactured public records · 16 Days on market

Built 1983 9,583 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.5/30.0
• DSCR +7.9/10.0
• Appreciation +7.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.8/10.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

1983 manufactured home on a permanent foundation with a recorded 433A already in place, making conventional financing possible. Major updates have been completed, including new underground utilities, a new septic system, new 100-amp electrical panel, and a partial roof replacement in 2023.The home offers 2 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, including a primary suite with its own private bath. Enjoy your morning coffee on the covered front porch and take advantage of the covered 2-car carport. Bring the RV, boat, travel trailer, work trucks, and off-road toys! Double-gated access and abundant parking provide room for all your vehicles and equipment without paying for off-site storage. Affordable comm

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Permanent foundation
• New septic system

Tags

• PERMANENT FOUNDATION
• NEW UNDERGROUND UTILITIES
• NEW SEPTIC SYSTEM
• NEW ELECTRICAL PANEL
• PARTIAL ROOF REPLACEMENT
• COVERED FRONT PORCH

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Propane for heating and water heater
• Home design: Manufactured home (double-wide); Residential property
• Construction: Wood siding; Composition roof; Crawl space foundation; Built as manufactured (affixed)
• Exterior features: Garden; Covered patio; Patio; Fenced yard; RV/Boat storage; Has view

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas oven; Gas range; Refrigerator; Disposal
• Flooring: Carpet; Linoleum
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Propane heating; Evaporative cooling
• Interior features: Dishwasher; Disposal; Gas oven; Gas range; Refrigerator; Gas water heater; Carpet flooring; Linoleum flooring; Crawl space basement
• Laundry & utility: Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $156k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $321 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $156k).
• Recommended offer: $154k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 52/100 on livability (#999 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A, cost of living B+; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Kernville Union Elementary (rural): math 20% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #1,128 of 1,400 in CA (top 81%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Woodrow W. Wallace Elementary (418 students, 86% FRL); Woodrow Wallace Middle (273 students, 81% FRL) — zoned schools average 83% FRL vs 65% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 135 active listings in the ZIP; 3,244 units permitted in Kern County in 2024 (73 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $10k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $9k appreciation (5.5% local appreciation)).
• Kern County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (5.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $44k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($154k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $110k; 42% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 11→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $153,660 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.08% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.76%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.82%
• DSCR: 1.39
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $72,576
• Comps found: 8

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2410 Ronita Ln #21	0.08mi	2/2.0	1,344 (0%)	1mo	$33,000	$25	92
2404 Clark St	0.07mi	2/2.0	1,344 (0%)	8mo	$80,000	$60	86
2617 Crestview Ave	0.13mi	2/2.0	1,248 (-7%)	9mo	$67,500	$54	70
2807 Erskine Creek Rd #55	0.66mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,326 (-1%)	15mo	$78,500	$59	45
2401 Commercial Ave	0.38mi	2/2.0	1,200 (-11%)	22mo	$62,000	$52	42
2807 Erskine Creek Rd #90	0.66mi	2/2.0	1,248 (-7%)	15mo	$20,000	$16	41
2418 Mason Ct	0.65mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,248 (-7%)	17mo	$95,000	$76	34
2807 Erskine Creek Rd #94	0.65mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,430 (+6%)	20mo	$72,000	$50	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.55% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.40×
• Total profit: $61,323
• Equity at exit: $93,668

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.9%
• Equity multiple: 4.79×
• Total profit: $165,549
• Equity at exit: $166,189

Cash invested: $43,680 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93240

• Home prices YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 135
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,681 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$818
• Tax from tax record: −$124 /mo · $1,492/yr
• Insurance: −$65
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$353
• Net cashflow: $321

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,275

Max offer price $156,000

Occupancy floor 76%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,000
• Closing costs: $4,680
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $156,000 Active 16 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $156,000 Active 15 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $156,000 Active 14 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $156,000 Active 13 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $156,000 Active 11 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $156,000 Active 10 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $156,000 Active 8 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $156,000 Active 7 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $156,000 Active 6 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $156,000 Active 5 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $156,000 Active 2 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    remarks 699-char remark
13. 2026-06-03
    listed $156,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,492 · $124/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,492 · $124/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 9/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 11 d/yr ≥100°F today · 28 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 24 unhealthy d/yr today · 30 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,177
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,738
• − Property taxes: −$1,492
• − Insurance: −$780
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,614
• − Management: −$1,614
• − Depreciation: −$4,538
• Taxable income: $1,400
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$336
• After-tax cash flow: $3,515/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kernville Union Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0619590
• Math proficiency: 20% ▲ 4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▲ 11.00%
• Median HH income: $29,896
• Composite: 25.91/100
• National rank: #12766
• State rank: #1128 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Lake Isabella

• Score: 52/100
• State rank: #999
• US rank: #24814

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime C- Employment F Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lake Isabella, CA
• City population: 5,622
• Population (ZIP): 5,622

Population outlook (Kern County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 947,286 people
• By 2030: 978,984 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 1,045,018 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 1,105,232 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 1,229,538 · +29.8%
• By 2100: 1,238,059 · +30.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 5% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Portuguese 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 4% Korean 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Kern

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.1) · D 38.2% · R 59.3% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.3pp toward R · 2008: -17.8pp · 2024: -21.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.1 2020: R+10.2 2016: R+15.0 2012: R+20.9 2008: R+17.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.55%
• Current HPI: 341.2481
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+41.8% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-27 Listed $156,000 SSMLS
• 2022-07-08 Sold (Public Records) $110,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+27.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,492 · +2.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.