3511 Antarctic Cir #2406 · Naples, FL 34112

$209,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,246 sqft · Condo public records · 2 Days on market

Built 1986 $577/mo HOA · 18% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.9/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +9.9/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This unit is THE LOWEST PRICED unit in Winterpark and move in ready sold Turnkey Furnished. Great Location near the Wonderful Amenities Winterpark has to offer. A quick walk to the resort size Pool, Bocce Court, Tennis Courts and Community Center. If interested in renting for season, it is perfect for that also! Very well maintained, clean and no carpet. Close to Grocery Shopping, Starbucks, 5th Ave Restaurants and Naples finest beaches. The building has Flood insurance which means that lender approval will not be an issue. Polybutylene plumbing has been replaced.

Key facts

• Bocce court
• Turnkey furnished
• Resort size pool

Tags

• MOVE IN READY
• TURNKEY FURNISHED
• RESORT SIZE POOL
• BOCCE COURT
• TENNIS COURTS
• COMMUNITY CENTER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $209k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $216 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $209k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#126 in FL, #1,903 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, amenities A+, employment A+; Watch: commute D+, cost of living F.
• Collier (suburban): math 60% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #16 of 73 in FL (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.7%/yr); 771 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,520 units permitted in Collier County in 2024 (959 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,273/mo this rent would consume 56% of the median local household income ($70k/yr) (locally 980% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collier County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $64k; list at $209k implies a 229% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→29/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $209,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.57% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.98%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.18%
• DSCR: 1.59
• GRM: 5.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.50×
• Total profit: $-29,059
• Equity at exit: $31,163

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-42,117
• Equity at exit: $18,071

Cash invested: $58,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34112

• Rents YoY: -1.7%
• Active inventory: 771
• Price-to-rent: 5.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,273 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,096
• Tax from tax record: −$183 /mo · $2,193/yr
• Insurance: −$87
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$577
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$687
• Net cashflow: $216

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,999

Max offer price $209,000

Occupancy floor 88%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $335	-5% $276	+0% $216	+5% $157	+10% $98
Rent	-10% $-42	-5% $87	+0% $216	+5% $346	+10% $475
Rate	-1.0pp $322	-0.5pp $270	base $216	+0.5pp $162	+1.0pp $107

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,250
• Closing costs: $6,270
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3510 Antarctic Cir Unit 1 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1200	$2,350	$1.96	24d	1	0.02mi
3504 Antarctic Cir Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1246	$3,000	$2.41	24d	1	0.03mi
3618 Arctic Cir #3618 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1200	$3,450	$2.88	24d	1	0.03mi
3608 Arctic Cir #514 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1250	$4,200	$3.36	24d	1	0.06mi
3563 Antarctic Cir #2102 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1200	$3,800	$3.17	24d	1	0.07mi
3676 Arctic Cir #112 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1246	$2,700	$2.17	22d	1	0.09mi
83 Glades Blvd #3 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1204	$5,200	$4.32	14d	1	0.10mi
3400 Frosty Way #5 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1284	$3,500	$2.73	14d	1	0.11mi
96 Glades Blvd Unit 513 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1370	$4,500	$3.28	14d	1	0.20mi
364 Tern Dr #4 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1264	$1,800	$1.42	14d	1	0.25mi
4069 Northlight Dr #1805 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1234	$3,000	$2.43	22d	1	0.28mi
348 Tern Dr #2 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1270	$1,800	$1.42	14d	1	0.29mi
348 Tern Dr Unit 4 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1270	$5,000	$3.94	24d	1	0.29mi
2155 Great Blue Dr Naples, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	895	$1,910	$2.13	14d	43	0.33mi
4010 Ice Castle Way #7 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1314	$3,200	$2.44	24d	1	0.37mi
306 Palm Dr #2 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1270	$5,200	$4.09	24d	1	0.41mi
4021 Ice Castle Way #4 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1246	$2,600	$2.09	14d	1	0.42mi
1111 Central Dr Unit 417A Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1265	$6,500	$5.14	24d	1	0.42mi
1059 San Remo Ave Naples, FL	2.0	1.0	845	$1,795	$2.12	24d	1	0.43mi
4040 Ice Castle Way Unit 2 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1246	$2,800	$2.25	24d	1	0.46mi
265 Palm Dr Unit 265-2 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1215	$1,499	$1.23	14d	1	0.48mi
4060 Ice Castle Way #10 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1246	$3,600	$2.89	14d	1	0.48mi
256 Palm Dr #6 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1010	$4,500	$4.46	14d	1	0.50mi
2347 Bayside St Apt B Naples, FL	2.0	1.0	864	$1,595	$1.85	14d	1	0.53mi
240 Palm Dr Unit 48-1 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,800	$1.64	24d	1	0.53mi
146 Lollypop Ln #851 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1335	$3,750	$2.81	24d	1	0.54mi
239 Palm Dr #2 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1215	$4,000	$3.29	14d	1	0.54mi
232 Palm Dr Unit 47-5 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1010	$2,500	$2.48	24d	1	0.55mi
229 Palm Dr Unit 229-2 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1215	$4,400	$3.62	14d	1	0.57mi
216 Palm Dr #5 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1010	$4,500	$4.46	14d	1	0.59mi
195 Peppermint Ln Unit 884 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1335	$3,800	$2.85	14d	1	0.60mi
195 Peppermint Ln Unit 4 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1335	$2,500	$1.87	24d	1	0.60mi
195 Peppermint Ln #2 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1198	$2,600	$2.17	14d	1	0.60mi
202 Peppermint Ln #2 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1335	$5,000	$3.75	14d	1	0.60mi
195 Peppermint Ln Unit 881 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1335	$5,000	$3.75	14d	1	0.60mi
2750 Manorca Ave Unit A Naples, FL	2.0	1.0	840	$2,800	$3.33	14d	1	0.60mi
200 Palm Dr #7 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1010	$1,600	$1.58	14d	1	0.63mi
209 Palm Dr #1 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1215	$5,000	$4.12	14d	1	0.63mi
4180 Looking Glass Ln Unit 4104 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1246	$4,000	$3.21	14d	1	0.64mi
4210 Looking Glass Ln Unit 4210 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1300	$3,000	$2.31	14d	1	0.67mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $577 · $6,924/yr
• Likely covers: pool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-04-20
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-18
   listed $209,000 Active
3. 2026-01-24
   historical $3,500
4. 2025-07-31
   listed $3,500
5. 2025-06-26
   historical $3,500
6. 2025-01-31
   listed $3,500
7. 2025-01-24
   historical $3,190
8. 2024-11-26
   price $3,190
9. 2024-11-11
   price $3,390
10. 2024-05-23
    listed $3,400
11. 1999-10-04
    soldstatus $63,500
12. 1991-06-01
    soldstatus $55,000
13. 1986-12-01
    soldstatus $59,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,193 · $183/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,193 · $183/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone AE · 97% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 29 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $39,278
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,707
• − Property taxes: −$2,193
• − Insurance: −$6,164
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,142
• − Management: −$3,142
• − HOA: −$6,924
• − Depreciation: −$6,080
• Taxable loss: −$74
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$18
• After-tax cash flow: $2,615/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Collier
• NCES district ID: 1200330
• Math proficiency: 60% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $58,275
• Composite: 50.23/100
• National rank: #1892
• State rank: #16 of 73 in FL

Livability — Naples

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #126
• US rank: #1903

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute D+ Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing C+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Collier County · 396,295 people
• City population: 344,941
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• Population (ZIP): 27,193
• Household income: $69,842
• Rent vs Own: 23.8% rent · 76.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 980.0

Population outlook (Collier County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,858 people
• By 2030: 450,054 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 502,232 · +19.3%
• By 2050: 544,932 · +29.5%
• By 2075: 627,203 · +49.0%
• By 2100: 659,015 · +56.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 18% Two or more races 9% Black 6% Native American 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 4% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 4% Romanian 3% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 75% English-only · Spanish 17% French/Haitian/Cajun 4% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Collier

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.1) · D 33.1% · R 66.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.6pp toward R · 2008: -22.5pp · 2024: -33.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.1 2020: R+24.7 2016: R+26.0 2012: R+30.1 2008: R+22.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -235.10%
• Current HPI: 256.9182
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.69%
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+254.2% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Pending — NAPLESMLS
• 2026-04-18 Listed $209,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2026-01-24 Rental Removed $3,500 NAPLESMLS
• 2025-07-31 Listed for Rent $3,500 NAPLESMLS
• 2025-06-26 Rental Removed $3,500 NAPLESMLS
• 2025-01-31 Listed for Rent $3,500 NAPLESMLS
• 2025-01-24 Rental Removed $3,190 NAPLESMLS
• 2024-11-26 Price Changed $3,190 NAPLESMLS
• 2024-11-11 Price Changed $3,390 NAPLESMLS
• 2024-05-23 Listed for Rent $3,400 NAPLESMLS
• 1999-10-04 Sold (Public Records) $63,500 Public Records
• 1991-06-01 Sold (Public Records) $55,000 Public Records
• 1986-12-01 Sold (Public Records) $59,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,193 · +8.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.