2403 Parker Ave · Northwest Harborcreek, PA 16510

$149,900

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,845 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 7 Days on market

Built 1947 0.34 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Livability +4.5/5.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 1 unit. estimate disagrees with records

Listing remarks

Diamond in the rough with great potential. Currently owner occupied with the 2nd mother in law unit is vacant and all utilities are off. 2nd unit needs plumbing repairs, and both units need cosmetic repairs including paint, flooring and finishes. This home could easily be converted into a single-family home. LARGE off street parking area, covered front patio, great location. Buyer pays both transfer taxes * * No Utilities on in the 2nd unit, bring a flashlight. No FHA/VA financing. Appliances are not included,

Key facts

• Covered front patio
• 2 unit
• 0.34 acre lot

Tags

• 2 UNIT
• OFF STREET PARKING AREA
• COVERED FRONT PATIO

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: R-1 zoning

Exterior

• Parking: Paved parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Duplex; Residential property; Fixer condition
• Construction: Aluminum siding and brick exterior; Asphalt roof
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Storage shed

Interior

• Flooring: Hardwood floors; Wood floors
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; No central cooling
• Interior features: Skylights; Wood burning fireplace

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath multifamily listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $3 ($32/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $149k (0.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $149k (0.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 89/100 on livability (#25 in PA, #149 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+.
• Harbor Creek SD (suburban): math 54% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #53 of 539 in PA (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Rolling Ridge El Sch (math 53% / reading 79%, grade B+, #238 of 1,518 statewide, top 16%, 474 students, 40% FRL); Harbor Creek Junior Hs (math 33% / reading 64%, grade C-, #146 of 512 statewide, top 30%, 388 students, 36% FRL); Harbor Creek Senior Hs (math 92%, 614 students, 31% FRL).
• Market conditions: 77 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 364 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (188 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Erie County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $80k; list at $150k implies a 87% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price; built in 1947 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $149,000 (0.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1947 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.31%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.08%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-24,014
• Equity at exit: $22,351

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.52×
• Total profit: $-20,257
• Equity at exit: $12,961

Cash invested: $41,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 16510

• Home prices YoY: -33.7%
• Active inventory: 77
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,490 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$786
• Tax from tax record: −$326 /mo · $3,911/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$313
• Net cashflow: $3

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,487

Max offer price $149,900

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $88	-5% $45	+0% $3	+5% $-40	+10% $-82
Rent	-10% $-115	-5% $-56	+0% $3	+5% $62	+10% $120
Rate	-1.0pp $78	-0.5pp $41	base $3	+0.5pp $-36	+1.0pp $-76

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,475
• Closing costs: $4,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3704 E Lake Rd Erie, PA	4.0	1.0	2472	$1,490	$0.60	45d	1	1.29mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-18
   status $149,900 Pending 7 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $149,900 Active 7 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $149,900 Active 6 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   remarks 517-char remark
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $149,900 Active 5 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $149,900 Active 4 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $149,900 Active 2 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   remarks 510-char remark
9. 2026-06-13
   listed $149,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,911 · $326/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,911 · $326/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥89°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,880
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,397
• − Property taxes: −$3,911
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,430
• − Management: −$1,430
• − Depreciation: −$4,361
• Taxable loss: −$2,399
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$576
• After-tax cash flow: $607/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Harbor Creek SD
• NCES district ID: 4211490
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 73% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $60,141
• Composite: 54.87/100
• National rank: #1312
• State rank: #53 of 539 in PA

Livability — Northwest Harborcreek

• Score: 89/100
• State rank: #25
• US rank: #149

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Northwest Harborcreek, PA
• City population: 11,709
• Population (ZIP): 25,152

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 272,159 people
• By 2030: 266,299 · -2.2%
• By 2040: 250,987 · -7.8%
• By 2050: 234,925 · -13.7%
• By 2075: 199,164 · -26.8%
• By 2100: 162,985 · -40.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 6% Asian 4% Two or more races 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 12% Subsaharan African 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Vietnam, India, Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Arabic 3% Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.0% · R 50.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.9pp toward R · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: -1.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.0 2020: D+1.0 2016: R+2.0 2012: D+16.9 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -122.36%
• Current HPI: 240.7222
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+130.6% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Listed $149,900 GEBOR
• 1994-11-14 Sold (Public Records) $80,000 Public Records
• 1992-09-02 Sold (Public Records) $65,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.1%/yr

Latest (2026): $3,911 · +4.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.