2738 W Rolls Rd · San Tan Valley, AZ 85144

$290,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,482 sqft · Manufactured public records · 61 Days on market

Built 1999 1.27 ac lot $196/sqft · 39% below area Est $472k · 39% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +9.4/30.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• DSCR +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0
• 1% rule +1.5/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Exceptional investment opportunity in the highly desirable Chandler Heights Ranches area, surrounded by newly built custom homes selling for $1M+. This NO HOA property sits on an expansive 54,886 sq ft corner lot, offering rare flexibility and multiple access points with two separate gates--ideal for future development, RV storage, or expanded use. The existing home features a split floor plan, vaulted ceilings, and abundant natural light from a kitchen skylight. With a large pantry and interior washer/dryer hookups, the structure provides a solid footprint for renovation. This property presents multiple value-add strategies: renovate and occupy, hold as a rental, or take advantage of the oversized lot to build a custom dream home while converting the existing residence into a guest house or casita (buyer to verify). The surrounding growth and high-end construction make this a prime candidate for redevelopment or long-term appreciation.

Key facts

• 1.27 acre lot
• Built 1999
• Listed 61 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $290k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-209 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $253k (12.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $190k (34.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $190k (34.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 3.2% in San Tan Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#282 in AZ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, employment B+; Watch: crime D+, schools D, amenities F.
• Florence Unified School District (4437) (rural): math 16% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #178 of 249 in AZ (top 72%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 475 active listings in the ZIP; 29 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 9,504 units permitted in Pinal County in 2024 (776 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $31k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $29k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$50k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 61 days — a 6% lower offer ($273k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 12 sale attempts since 25y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $72k; list at $290k implies a 303% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $189,674 (34.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 61 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 35% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.65% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.43%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.08%
• DSCR: 0.86
• GRM: 12.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $472,500
• List price: $290,000
• Delta: -38.62%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
31555 N Royce Rd	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,508 (+2%)	15mo	$450,000	$298	76
3682 W Rolls Rd	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,625 (+10%)	3mo	$445,000	$274	53
3500 W Phillips Rd	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,664 (+12%)	5mo	$500,000	$300	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.78×
• Total profit: $144,502
• Equity at exit: $261,255

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.8%
• Equity multiple: 6.37×
• Total profit: $435,677
• Equity at exit: $563,406

Cash invested: $81,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85144

• Home prices YoY: 7.2%
• Active inventory: 475
• Price-to-rent: 12.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,897 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,521
• Tax from tax record: −$65 /mo · $785/yr
• Insurance: −$121
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$398
• Net cashflow: $-209

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,161

Max offer price $253,152

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,500
• Closing costs: $8,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 29 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2781 W Mira Dr San Tan Valley, AZ	3.0	2.0	1115	$1,825	$1.64	2d	1	0.50mi
2683 W Kristina Ave San Tan Valley, AZ	3.0	2.0	1410	$1,850	$1.31	43d	1	0.56mi
2306 W Kristina Ave San Tan Valley, AZ	4.0	2.0	1464	$1,650	$1.13	24d	1	0.58mi
2125 W Goldmine Mountain Dr Unit 1546392P San Tan Valley, AZ	3.0	2.0	1593	$3,899	$2.45	12d	1	0.74mi
2060 W Goldmine Mountain Dr San Tan Valley, AZ	4.0	2.0	1869	$2,181	$1.17	24d	1	0.78mi
1533 W Sabel Ct San Tan Valley, AZ	4.0	2.0	1870	$2,145	$1.15	5d	1	0.86mi
32449 N Gary Rd San Tan Valley, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1072	$2,465	$2.30	1d	72	0.96mi
2061 W Daniel Rd Unit 2 Queen Creek, AZ	3.0	2.0	1600	$1,850	$1.16	12d	1	0.98mi
33053 N North Butte Dr San Tan Valley, AZ	4.0	2.0	1520	$1,985	$1.31	3d	1	0.98mi
2460 W Tanner Ranch Rd San Tan Valley, AZ	4.0	2.0	1520	$1,980	$1.30	1d	1	0.98mi
33024 N Madison Way Dr San Tan Valley, AZ	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,700	$1.13	14d	1	1.00mi
33082 N Cat Hills Ave San Tan Valley, AZ	3.0	2.0	1703	$1,695	$1.00	5d	1	1.01mi
33082 N Cat Hills Ave San Tan Valley, AZ	3.0	2.0	1704	$1,795	$1.05	17d	1	1.01mi
2029 W Allens Peak Dr San Tan Valley, AZ	4.0	2.0	1685	$1,980	$1.18	2d	1	1.02mi
1469 W Virgil Dr San Tan Valley, AZ	3.0	2.0	1360	$2,145	$1.58	20d	1	1.02mi
1469 W Virgil Dr San Tan Valley, AZ	3.0	2.0	1360	$2,145	$1.58	1d	1	1.02mi
3162 W Sunshine Butte Dr San Tan Valley, AZ	4.0	2.0	1600	$1,850	$1.16	21d	1	1.06mi
3560 W Mesquite Ave San Tan Valley, AZ	3.0	2.0	1453	$1,750	$1.20	11d	1	1.08mi
3194 W Tanner Ranch Rd San Tan Valley, AZ	2.0	2.0	1036	$1,639	$1.58	43d	1	1.12mi
3194 W Tanner Ranch Rd San Tan Valley, AZ	2.0	2.0	1036	$1,499	$1.45	5d	1	1.12mi
2924 W Allens Peak Dr San Tan Valley, AZ	3.0	2.0	1765	$1,880	$1.07	2d	1	1.13mi
2924 W Allens Peak Dr San Tan Valley, AZ	3.0	2.0	1765	$1,955	$1.11	10d	1	1.13mi
1847 W Desert Seasons Dr San Tan Valley, AZ	4.0	2.0	1679	$1,695	$1.01	21d	1	1.20mi
2699 W Camp River Rd San Tan Valley, AZ	3.0	2.0	1766	$1,975	$1.12	43d	1	1.21mi
1868 W Desert Seasons Dr San Tan Valley, AZ	4.0	2.0	1678	$1,950	$1.16	20d	1	1.24mi
1814 W Desert Hills Dr San Tan Valley, AZ	4.0	2.0	1541	$1,895	$1.23	43d	1	1.28mi
3809 W Five Mile Peak Dr San Tan Valley, AZ	3.0	2.0	1343	$1,895	$1.41	5d	1	1.43mi
900 W Desert Canyon Dr San Tan Valley, AZ	4.0	2.0	1614	$1,955	$1.21	24d	1	1.48mi
33023 N Quarry Hills Dr San Tan Valley, AZ	3.0	2.0	1806	$1,999	$1.11	11d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 39 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $290,000 Active 61 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $290,000 Active 60 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $290,000 Active 59 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $290,000 Active 58 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $290,000 Active 56 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $290,000 Active 55 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $290,000 Active 52 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $290,000 Active 51 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $290,000 Active 50 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $290,000 Active 47 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $290,000 Active 46 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $290,000 Active 45 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $290,000 Active 44 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $290,000 Active 43 DOM
15. 2026-05-05
    status Active 956-char remark

    Show marketing remark (956 chars)

    Exceptional investment opportunity in the highly desirable Chandler Heights Ranches area, surrounded by newly built custom homes selling for $1M+. This NO HOA property sits on an expansive 54,886 sq ft corner lot, offering rare flexibility and multiple access points with two separate gates--ideal for future development, RV storage, or expanded use. The existing home features a split floor plan, vaulted ceilings, and abundant natural light from a kitchen skylight. With a large pantry and interior washer/dryer hookups, the structure provides a solid footprint for renovation. This property presents multiple value-add strategies: renovate and occupy, hold as a rental, or take advantage of the oversized lot to build a custom dream home while converting the existing residence into a guest house or casita (buyer to verify). The surrounding growth and high-end construction make this a prime candidate for redevelopment or long-term appreciation.

16. 2026-04-23
    historical Under Contract Accepting Backups 956-char remark

    Show marketing remark (956 chars)

    Exceptional investment opportunity in the highly desirable Chandler Heights Ranches area, surrounded by newly built custom homes selling for $1M+. This NO HOA property sits on an expansive 54,886 sq ft corner lot, offering rare flexibility and multiple access points with two separate gates--ideal for future development, RV storage, or expanded use. The existing home features a split floor plan, vaulted ceilings, and abundant natural light from a kitchen skylight. With a large pantry and interior washer/dryer hookups, the structure provides a solid footprint for renovation. This property presents multiple value-add strategies: renovate and occupy, hold as a rental, or take advantage of the oversized lot to build a custom dream home while converting the existing residence into a guest house or casita (buyer to verify). The surrounding growth and high-end construction make this a prime candidate for redevelopment or long-term appreciation.

17. 2026-04-18
    listed $300,000 Active 956-char remark

    Show marketing remark (956 chars)

    Exceptional investment opportunity in the highly desirable Chandler Heights Ranches area, surrounded by newly built custom homes selling for $1M+. This NO HOA property sits on an expansive 54,886 sq ft corner lot, offering rare flexibility and multiple access points with two separate gates--ideal for future development, RV storage, or expanded use. The existing home features a split floor plan, vaulted ceilings, and abundant natural light from a kitchen skylight. With a large pantry and interior washer/dryer hookups, the structure provides a solid footprint for renovation. This property presents multiple value-add strategies: renovate and occupy, hold as a rental, or take advantage of the oversized lot to build a custom dream home while converting the existing residence into a guest house or casita (buyer to verify). The surrounding growth and high-end construction make this a prime candidate for redevelopment or long-term appreciation.

18. 2017-07-16
    historical
19. 2017-06-18
    status Active
20. 2017-06-08
    historical Under Contract Accepting Backups
21. 2017-05-30
    listed $130,000 Active
22. 2010-04-30
    soldstatus $72,000 Closed
23. 2010-04-17
    status Pending
24. 2010-04-02
    listed $74,900 Active
25. 2009-07-20
    historical
26. 2008-12-16
    listed $89,900
27. 2008-10-22
    historical
28. 2008-06-30
    listed $89,900
29. 2005-11-01
    soldstatus $115,000
30. 2005-09-29
    historical
31. 2005-06-30
    listed $190,000
32. 2003-10-04
    historical
33. 2003-08-09
    listed $107,000
34. 2002-06-02
    historical
35. 2002-05-02
    listed $170,000
36. 2002-04-25
    historical
37. 2002-02-08
    listed $79,900
38. 2002-01-14
    historical
39. 2001-08-14
    listed $99,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $785 · $65/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,914 · $160/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,129/yr (+$94/mo · 143.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,761
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,245
• − Property taxes: −$785
• − Insurance: −$1,450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,821
• − Management: −$1,821
• − Depreciation: −$8,436
• Taxable loss: −$7,796
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,871
• After-tax cash flow: $-632/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Florence Unified School District (4437)
• NCES district ID: 0402920
• Math proficiency: 16% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 24% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $54,426
• Composite: 18.31/100
• National rank: #8950
• State rank: #178 of 249 in AZ

Livability — San Tan Valley

• Score: 54/100
• State rank: #282
• US rank: #24192

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime D+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: San Tan Valley, AZ

Population outlook (Pinal County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 437,574 people
• By 2030: 446,903 · +2.1%
• By 2040: 452,589 · +3.4%
• By 2050: 444,126 · +1.5%
• By 2075: 430,300 · -1.7%
• By 2100: 393,536 · -10.1%

Not yet ingested

• Political lean: —
• Race & ethnicity: —
• Common origin: —
• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 24.94%
• Current HPI: 372.52
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+203.0% since first listed

25 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2026-04-23 Contingent — ARMLS
• 2026-04-18 Listed $300,000 ARMLS
• 2017-07-16 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2017-06-18 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2017-06-08 Contingent — ARMLS
• 2017-05-30 Listed $130,000 ARMLS
• 2010-04-30 Sold (MLS) $72,000 ARMLS
• 2010-04-17 Pending — ARMLS
• 2010-04-02 Listed $74,900 ARMLS
• 2009-07-20 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2008-12-16 Listed $89,900 ARMLS
• 2008-10-22 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2008-06-30 Listed $89,900 ARMLS
• 2005-11-01 Sold (Public Records) $115,000 Public Records
• 2005-09-29 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2005-06-30 Listed $190,000 ARMLS
• 2003-10-04 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2003-08-09 Listed $107,000 ARMLS
• 2002-06-02 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2002-05-02 Listed $170,000 ARMLS
• 2002-04-25 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2002-02-08 Listed $79,900 ARMLS
• 2002-01-14 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2001-08-14 Listed $99,000 ARMLS

Property tax history

-1.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $785 · +2.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.