708 15th St · Abernathy, TX 79311

$114,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,512 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 134 Days on market

Built 1955 10,498 sqft lot ↓ 9% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.6/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +9.7/10.0
• 1% rule +8.1/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to Abernathy! This beautiful home sits on right at a quarter of an acre with a large 12 X 16 shop with electric in the back! With just under 1700 sq ft, this home has 3 spacious bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a flex space that could easily be a 4th bedroom, office, or second living area. Perfect for someone looking to make a home their own, or an investor looking for a great flip property. This home is ready for its next chapter and is priced to sell!

Key facts

• Quarter of an acre
• 0.24 acre lot
• Garage

Tags

• QUARTER OF AN ACRE
• LARGE SHOP WITH ELECTRIC

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $115k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $345 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $115k).
• Recommended offer: $101k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#88 in TX, #3,080 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Abernathy ISD (town): math 47% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #242 of 826 in TX (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Abernathy El (math 52% / reading 52%, grade C-, #742 of 4,322 statewide, top 19%, 411 students, 49% FRL); Abernathy Middle (math 47% / reading 42%, grade D, #491 of 1,662 statewide, top 31%, 180 students, 50% FRL); Abernathy H S (math 37% / reading 42%, grade F, #821 of 1,632 statewide, top 53%, 243 students, 45% FRL).
• Market conditions: 50 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 13 units permitted in Hale County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $12k of equity ($795 loan paydown + $12k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Hale County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 134 days — a 12% lower offer ($101k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $101,199 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 134 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.31% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.90%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.86%
• DSCR: 1.57
• GRM: 6.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 33.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.63×
• Total profit: $84,668
• Equity at exit: $103,600

10-year hold

• IRR: 29.1%
• Equity multiple: 8.21×
• Total profit: $232,146
• Equity at exit: $223,418

Cash invested: $32,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79311

• Home prices YoY: 5.7%
• Active inventory: 50
• Price-to-rent: 6.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,501 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax from tax record: −$190 /mo · $2,277/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$315
• Net cashflow: $345

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,064

Max offer price $114,999

Occupancy floor 72%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $410	-5% $378	+0% $345	+5% $313	+10% $280
Rent	-10% $227	-5% $286	+0% $345	+5% $404	+10% $464
Rate	-1.0pp $403	-0.5pp $374	base $345	+0.5pp $315	+1.0pp $285

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,750
• Closing costs: $3,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1005 East St Abernathy, TX	3.0	2.0	1220	$1,295	$1.06	16d	1	0.68mi
502 2nd Pl Abernathy, TX	4.0	2.0	2139	$1,899	$0.89	16d	1	1.14mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $114,999 Active 134 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $114,999 Active 131 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $114,999 Active 130 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $114,999 Active 129 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $114,999 Active 128 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   pricedays on market $114,999 Active 123 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $132,000 Active 122 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $132,000 Active 121 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $132,000 Active 120 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    statusdays on market $132,000 Pending 119 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $132,000 Active 118 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $132,000 Active 117 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $132,000 Active 116 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $132,000 Active 115 DOM
15. 2026-03-15
    price $132,000 459-char remark

    Show marketing remark (459 chars)

    Welcome to Abernathy! This beautiful home sits on right at a quarter of an acre with a large 12 X 16 shop with electric in the back! With just under 1700 sq ft, this home has 3 spacious bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a flex space that could easily be a 4th bedroom, office, or second living area. Perfect for someone looking to make a home their own, or an investor looking for a great flip property. This home is ready for its next chapter and is priced to sell!

16. 2026-02-04
    listed $145,000 Active 459-char remark

    Show marketing remark (459 chars)

    Welcome to Abernathy! This beautiful home sits on right at a quarter of an acre with a large 12 X 16 shop with electric in the back! With just under 1700 sq ft, this home has 3 spacious bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a flex space that could easily be a 4th bedroom, office, or second living area. Perfect for someone looking to make a home their own, or an investor looking for a great flip property. This home is ready for its next chapter and is priced to sell!

17. 2010-09-24
    soldstatus
18. 2001-10-29
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,277 · $190/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,277 · $190/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 6 d/yr ≥99°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,014
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,442
• − Property taxes: −$2,277
• − Insurance: −$575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,441
• − Management: −$1,441
• − Depreciation: −$3,345
• Taxable income: $2,493
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$598
• After-tax cash flow: $3,544/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Abernathy ISD
• NCES district ID: 4807410
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $49,776
• Composite: 39.87/100
• National rank: #3862
• State rank: #242 of 826 in TX

Livability — Abernathy

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #88
• US rank: #3080

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Abernathy, TX
• Population (ZIP): 3,533

Population outlook (Hale County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 30,851 people
• By 2030: 29,158 · -5.5%
• By 2040: 25,681 · -16.8%
• By 2050: 22,420 · -27.3%
• By 2075: 15,857 · -48.6%
• By 2100: 10,500 · -66.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (55%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 55% Hispanic / Latino 42% Two or more races 8% Native American 4% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 40%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 20% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hale

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+58.0) · D 20.5% · R 78.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.1pp toward R · 2008: -44.9pp · 2024: -58.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+58.0 2020: R+51.1 2016: R+48.4 2012: R+47.8 2008: R+44.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 13.13%
• Current HPI: 244.4163
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-9.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-15 Price Changed $132,000 LARMLS
• 2026-02-04 Listed $145,000 LARMLS
• 2010-09-24 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2001-10-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,277 · +7.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.