4118 Flamingo Dr · Elfers, FL 34652

$165,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 720 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 41 Days on market

Built 1961 6,000 sqft lot Est $184k · 10% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +12.2/15.0
• DSCR +4.6/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Here is the perfect starter home with two bedrooms and one full bath with a sizable living room. An enclosed Florida room, carport, and fenced-in yard with a metal storage shed create a great scenario for a play area and dog run. There is also a covered patio area to increase your outdoor enjoyment. The laundry hook-ups are located off the carport. This is a great home in this price range.

Key facts

• Expansive yard
• Large lot
• Outdoor destinations

Tags

• LARGE LOT
• OPEN LAYOUT
• EXPANSIVE YARD
• CONVENIENT LOCATION
• NEARBY PARKS
• OUTDOOR DESTINATIONS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property type: Residential (Single Family); Zoning: R4; Lot about 0.14 acre
• HOA & community: No association (no HOA); Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Carport (1 space)
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank sewer; Public utilities
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; Faces west
• Construction: Block and stucco construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built area approximately 1,504 sq ft
• Exterior features: Covered rear porch; Shed(s); Level, paved lot; Trees and landscaping

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in oven; Cooktop; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate; Terrazzo
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; Thermostat; Blinds; French doors; Florida room
• Laundry & utility: Laundry located outside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $51 ($611/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $143k (13.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $143k (13.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 4.6% in Elfers — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#167 in FL, #2,486 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, employment D+, amenities D-.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Anclote Elementary School (math 37% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,609 of 2,144 statewide, top 77%, 420 students, 81% FRL); Gulf Middle School (math 34% / reading 33%, grade F, #428 of 571 statewide, top 76%, 901 students, 83% FRL); Gulf High School (math 32% / reading 34%, grade F, #406 of 667 statewide, top 61%, 1,465 students, 76% FRL) — zoned schools average 80% FRL vs 48% district-wide (32 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 34% at this address vs 51% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Pasco average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 644 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($57k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 41 days — a 3% lower offer ($160k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $47k; list at $165k implies a 251% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $143,025 (13.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 41 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1961 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.66%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.32%
• DSCR: 1.06
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $184,320
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4118 Flamingo Dr	0.00mi	2/1.0	720 (0%)	0mo	$150,000	$208	100
4128 Pecan Dr	0.25mi	2/1.0	756 (+5%)	3mo	$185,000	$245	78
4719 Trouble Creek Rd	0.40mi	2/1.0	720 (0%)	12mo	$100,000	$139	72
4033 Highland Loop	0.32mi	2/1.0	720 (0%)	21mo	$203,000	$282	68
4707 Alma St	0.28mi	2/1.0	624 (-13%)	2mo	$160,000	$256	63
4546 Edith St	0.58mi	2/1.0	728 (+1%)	18mo	$125,000	$172	56
4709 Gazania St	0.51mi	2/1.0	806 (+12%)	3mo	$190,000	$236	54
4528 Irene Loop	0.43mi	2/1.5	768 (+7%)	16mo	$205,000	$267	54
4530 Nimmer Dr	0.48mi	2/1.0	768 (+7%)	21mo	$230,000	$299	49
3523 Cambridge St	0.59mi	2/1.0	792 (+10%)	11mo	$180,000	$227	47
4514 Poole St	0.62mi	3/1.0 (+1)	768 (+7%)	16mo	$213,000	$277	41
3403 Monticello St	0.73mi	2/1.0	816 (+13%)	21mo	$215,000	$263	26

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.72% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-26,717
• Equity at exit: $24,602

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-31,728
• Equity at exit: $14,266

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34652

• Home prices YoY: -26.1%
• Rents YoY: 0.7%
• Active inventory: 644
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,430 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$145 /mo · $1,739/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$300
• Net cashflow: $51

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,366

Max offer price $165,000

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $144	-5% $98	+0% $51	+5% $4	+10% $-42
Rent	-10% $-62	-5% $-6	+0% $51	+5% $107	+10% $164
Rate	-1.0pp $134	-0.5pp $93	base $51	+0.5pp $8	+1.0pp $-35

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 19 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4124 Flamingo Dr New Port Richey, FL	3.0	1.0	744	$1,500	$2.02	16d	1	0.01mi
4124 Flamingo Dr New Port Richey, FL	3.0	1.0	744	$1,500	$2.02	5d	1	0.01mi
4209 Touchton Pl New Port Richey, FL	1.0	1.0	624	$1,300	$2.08	18d	1	0.54mi
4518 Audrey Ln Unit 4551 New Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.0	750	$1,295	$1.73	23d	1	0.56mi
4529 Audrey Ln New Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.0	750	$1,295	$1.73	23d	1	0.59mi
4540 Audrey Ln New Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.0	750	$1,150	$1.53	26d	1	0.59mi
4551 Audrey Ln NEW PRT RCHY, FL	2.0	1.0	750	$1,295	$1.73	23d	1	0.59mi
4722 Kennedy Dr New Port Richey, FL	1.0	1.0	504	$850	$1.69	26d	1	0.72mi
4744 Azalea Dr #204 New Port Richey, FL	1.0	1.0	736	$1,085	$1.47	0d	1	0.82mi
5333 Pasadena Dr Unit 5333 New Port Richey, FL	1.0	1.0	576	$1,200	$2.08	19d	1	0.85mi
5844 Sunshine Park Dr New Port Richey, FL	3.0	1.0	672	$1,100	$1.64	4d	1	0.97mi
5154 Turquoise Ln #102 New Port Richey, FL	1.0	1.0	708	$1,250	$1.77	6d	1	1.06mi
4901 Onyx Ln #102 New Port Richey, FL	1.0	1.0	672	$1,295	$1.93	26d	1	1.11mi
5149 Tangelo Dr Apt B New Port Richey, FL	1.0	1.0	350	$1,195	$3.41	26d	1	1.13mi
4944 Elkner St New Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.0	722	$1,350	$1.87	23d	1	1.21mi
4922 Filner St New Port Richey, FL	1.0	1.0	540	$1,000	$1.85	23d	1	1.23mi
4948 Getner St New Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.0	722	$1,350	$1.87	26d	1	1.26mi
4348 Plaza Dr Holiday, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	860	$1,499	$1.74	1d	7	1.40mi
4205 Jordana Way Holiday, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1027	$1,404	$1.37	4d	13	1.47mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-04
   status $165,000 Pending 41 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   days on market $165,000 Active 41 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   days on market $165,000 Active 40 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $165,000 Active 39 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $165,000 Active 38 DOM
6. 2026-04-23
   listed $165,000 Active
7. 2025-05-09
   status Pending
8. 2025-05-09
   historical
9. 2025-04-15
   listed $180,000 Active
10. 2015-07-28
    soldstatus $47,000
11. 2015-07-24
    soldstatus $47,000 Sold 392-char remark

    Show marketing remark (392 chars)

    Here is the perfect starter home with two bedrooms and one full bath with a sizable living room. An enclosed Florida room, carport, and fenced-in yard with a metal storage shed create a great scenario for a play area and dog run. There is also a covered patio area to increase your outdoor enjoyment. The laundry hook-ups are located off the carport. This is a great home in this price range.

12. 2015-07-01
    historical Contingent - Inspections 392-char remark

    Show marketing remark (392 chars)

    Here is the perfect starter home with two bedrooms and one full bath with a sizable living room. An enclosed Florida room, carport, and fenced-in yard with a metal storage shed create a great scenario for a play area and dog run. There is also a covered patio area to increase your outdoor enjoyment. The laundry hook-ups are located off the carport. This is a great home in this price range.

13. 2015-04-06
    listed $49,900 Active 392-char remark

    Show marketing remark (392 chars)

    Here is the perfect starter home with two bedrooms and one full bath with a sizable living room. An enclosed Florida room, carport, and fenced-in yard with a metal storage shed create a great scenario for a play area and dog run. There is also a covered patio area to increase your outdoor enjoyment. The laundry hook-ups are located off the carport. This is a great home in this price range.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,739 · $145/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,739 · $145/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 28 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,163
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$1,739
• − Insurance: −$825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,373
• − Management: −$1,373
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable loss: −$2,190
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$526
• After-tax cash flow: $1,137/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Elfers

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #167
• US rank: #2486

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Elfers, FL
• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 27,444
• Household income: $56,931
• Rent vs Own: 36.4% rent · 63.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1190.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 9% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -109.49%
• Current HPI: 310.8347
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.72%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+230.7% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Listed $165,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-09 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-09 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-15 Listed $180,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-07-28 Sold (Public Records) $47,000 Public Records
• 2015-07-24 Sold (MLS) $47,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-07-01 Contingent — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-04-06 Listed $49,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+7.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,739 · +0.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.