316 W Lake Samish Dr #21 · Alger, WA 98229

$89,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 672 sqft · Manufactured public records · 66 Days on market

Built 1971 ↓ 10% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This charming home is nestled in a peaceful and highly sought-after community, offering the perfect blend of comfort and natural beauty. Enjoy access to nearby outdoor amenities including walking trails, open green spaces, and a welcoming neighborhood atmosphere. The home features a spacious covered porch, ideal for relaxing mornings or evening gatherings, along with a private deck off the primary bedroom. A mini split system keeps the home cool in the summer, while a cozy wood stove provides warmth during the cooler winter months. The open-concept kitchen and living area create an inviting space for entertaining, complete with modern appliances and ample room to gather. Situated on a priva

Key facts

• Covered porch
• Private deck
• Wood stove

Tags

• COVERED PORCH
• PRIVATE DECK
• MINI SPLIT SYSTEM
• WOOD STOVE
• OPEN-CONCEPT KITCHEN
• MODERN APPLIANCES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property listed as residential manufactured home; Located on waterfront
• Financial info: Accepts Cash, Conventional, and FHA financing
• HOA & community: Park allows pets; 46 homes in the park; Land lease: $924

Exterior

• Parking: Uncovered parking
• Utilities: Electric energy source; Public water
• Home design: Manufactured double-wide home; Updated/remodeled condition; One level; Has a view; Mobile home remains on site
• Construction: Composition roof; Other construction materials; Double-pane windows
• Exterior features: Trails in the park; Other exterior features

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Stove/Range
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Forced air cooling
• Interior features: Fireplace (wood-burning)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $89k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $846 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $89k).
• Recommended offer: $84k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 17.7% vs local median 2.4% in Alger — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#527 in WA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A; Watch: health & safety D, schools F, amenities F.
• Bellingham School District (urban): math 47% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #106 of 291 in WA (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 270 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,190 units permitted in Whatcom County in 2024 (327 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $615 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Whatcom County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.4% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 66 days — a 6% lower offer ($84k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $83,660 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 66 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.70%
• Cash-on-cash: 40.74%
• DSCR: 2.81
• GRM: 4.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $255,360
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
316 W Lake Samish Dr #7	0.07mi	2/1.0	684 (+2%)	22mo	$260,000	$380	76

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.38% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 37.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.61×
• Total profit: $40,146
• Equity at exit: $13,270

10-year hold

• IRR: 44.4%
• Equity multiple: 5.30×
• Total profit: $107,163
• Equity at exit: $7,695

Cash invested: $24,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98229

• Rents YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 270
• Price-to-rent: 4.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,786 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$467
• Tax from tax record: −$61 /mo · $733/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$375
• Net cashflow: $846

Break-even live

Break-even rent $715

Max offer price $89,000

Occupancy floor 48%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,250
• Closing costs: $2,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $89,000 Active 66 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $89,000 Active 65 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $89,000 Active 64 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $89,000 Active 63 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $89,000 Active 61 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $89,000 Active 60 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $89,000 Active 58 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $89,000 Active 57 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $89,000 Active 56 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $89,000 Active 55 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    pricedays on market $89,000 Active 52 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $99,000 Active 51 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $99,000 Active 50 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $99,000 Active 49 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $99,000 Active 48 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $99,000 Active 47 DOM
17. 2026-04-13
    listed $99,000 Active
18. 2021-12-30
    soldstatus $120,000 Closed
19. 2021-12-17
    status Pending
20. 2021-12-03
    listed $120,000 Active
21. 2021-01-08
    soldstatus $70,000 Sold
22. 2020-12-30
    status Pending Inspection
23. 2020-12-11
    price $80,000
24. 2020-12-07
    price $90,000
25. 2020-11-30
    price $95,000
26. 2020-11-24
    price $100,000
27. 2020-11-13
    listed $110,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $733 · $61/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $872 · $73/mo
• Expected delta: +$139/yr (+$12/mo · 19.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 8 d/yr ≥84°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 9 unhealthy d/yr today · 10 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,432
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,985
• − Property taxes: −$733
• − Insurance: −$445
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,715
• − Management: −$1,715
• − Depreciation: −$2,589
• Taxable income: $9,251
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,220
• After-tax cash flow: $7,933/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bellingham School District
• NCES district ID: 5300420
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $47,678
• Composite: 48.49/100
• National rank: #4632
• State rank: #106 of 291 in WA

Livability — Alger

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #527
• US rank: #21801

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D- Crime C+ Employment A Housing B- Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Whatcom County · 209,776 people
• Metro: Bellingham, WA
• Population (ZIP): 33,298
• Household income: $90,945
• Rent vs Own: 30.3% rent · 69.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1040.0

Population outlook (Whatcom County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 240,408 people
• By 2030: 254,667 · +5.9%
• By 2040: 281,365 · +17.0%
• By 2050: 307,592 · +27.9%
• By 2075: 375,576 · +56.2%
• By 2100: 421,637 · +75.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Two or more races 13% Hispanic / Latino 10% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 6% Italian 4% Slovak 4%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 7% Chinese 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Whatcom

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+24.9) · D 60.8% · R 35.9% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.9pp toward D · 2008: 18.0pp · 2024: 24.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+24.9 2020: D+23.9 2016: D+17.7 2012: D+12.1 2008: D+18.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -652.00%
• Current HPI: 413.1478
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.38%
• Metro: Bellingham, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

-10.0% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-13 Listed $99,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-12-30 Sold (MLS) $120,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-12-17 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-12-03 Listed $120,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-01-08 Sold (MLS) $70,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-12-30 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-12-11 Price Changed $80,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-12-07 Price Changed $90,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-11-30 Price Changed $95,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-11-24 Price Changed $100,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-11-13 Listed $110,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+13.9%/yr

Latest (2026): $733 · +356.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.