820 Branding Iron Trl · Granbury, TX 76049

$208,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,780 sqft · Manufactured public records · 86 Days on market

Built 1974 0.32 ac lot $117/sqft · 8% below area Est $226k · 8% under $2/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.9/30.0
• ARV discount +11.1/15.0
• DSCR +7.3/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

great Curb appeal, big trees, fenced yard big walk in closets and pantry. Nice rock fireplace,wood floors and lots of storage. Sits on 3 lots; lots included: 177, 178 & 179.

Key facts

• Fenced yard
• Big pantry
• Wood floors

Tags

• FENCED YARD
• BIG WALK IN CLOSETS
• BIG PANTRY
• ROCK FIREPLACE
• WOOD FLOORS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $208k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $365 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $208k).
• Recommended offer: $196k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.4% vs local median 3.8% in Granbury — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#628 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, crime D+, schools D.
• Granbury ISD (town): math 46% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #237 of 826 in TX (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.2%/yr); 703 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 55% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 125 units permitted in Hood County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hood County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.2% rent growth), your $58k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 86 days — a 6% lower offer ($196k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 6→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $195,520 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 86 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.40%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.53%
• DSCR: 1.33
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $226,186
• List price: $208,000
• Delta: -8.04%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
646 Whisperview Cir	0.34mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,960 (+10%)	2mo	$189,900	$97	60

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.2% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.90×
• Total profit: $-5,797
• Equity at exit: $31,013

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.77×
• Total profit: $44,848
• Equity at exit: $17,984

Cash invested: $58,240 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76049

• Home prices YoY: -26.8%
• Rents YoY: 5.2%
• Active inventory: 703
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,081 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,091
• Tax from tax record: −$99 /mo · $1,187/yr
• Insurance: −$87
• HOA: −$2
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$437
• Net cashflow: $365

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,618

Max offer price $208,000

Occupancy floor 77%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $483	-5% $424	+0% $365	+5% $306	+10% $248
Rent	-10% $201	-5% $283	+0% $365	+5% $448	+10% $530
Rate	-1.0pp $470	-0.5pp $418	base $365	+0.5pp $311	+1.0pp $257

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,000
• Closing costs: $6,240
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
811 Branding Iron Trl Granbury, TX	3.0	2.0	1414	$2,050	$1.45	44d	1	0.02mi
809 Branding Iron Trl Granbury, TX	3.0	2.0	1414	$2,050	$1.45	44d	1	0.03mi
807 Branding Iron Trl Granbury, TX	3.0	2.0	1287	$1,950	$1.52	44d	1	0.03mi
805 Branding Iron Trl Granbury, TX	3.0	2.0	1287	$1,950	$1.52	44d	1	0.05mi
1713 Bronco Rd Granbury, TX	4.0	2.5	1520	$1,800	$1.18	8d	1	0.37mi
3142 Shady Grove Cir Granbury, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,950	$1.34	25d	1	0.95mi
1708 Rockview Dr Granbury, TX	3.0	2.0	2334	$2,700	$1.16	18d	1	1.00mi
1017 Meadowlark Ln Granbury, TX	3.0	2.0	1725	$2,300	$1.33	13d	1	1.12mi
1111 Dove Hollow Rd Granbury, TX	3.0	2.0	1789	$2,399	$1.34	44d	1	1.18mi
209 Johnson St Granbury, TX	4.0	2.5	2622	$3,000	$1.14	44d	1	1.38mi
800 Chanel Dr Granbury, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1029	$1,948	$1.89	0d	11	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $2 · $24/yr

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $208,000 Active 86 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $208,000 Active 83 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $208,000 Active 82 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $208,000 Active 81 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $208,000 Active 80 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $208,000 Active 78 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $208,000 Active 74 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $208,000 Active 73 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $208,000 Active 72 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $208,000 Active 69 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $208,000 Active 68 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $208,000 Active 67 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $208,000 Active 66 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $208,000 Active 65 DOM
15. 2026-04-14
    price $208,000 177-char remark

    Show marketing remark (177 chars)

    great Curb appeal, big trees, fenced yard big walk in closets and pantry. Nice rock fireplace,wood floors and lots of storage. Sits on 3 lots; lots included: 177, 178 & 179.

16. 2026-03-27
    listed $210,000 Active 177-char remark

    Show marketing remark (177 chars)

    great Curb appeal, big trees, fenced yard big walk in closets and pantry. Nice rock fireplace,wood floors and lots of storage. Sits on 3 lots; lots included: 177, 178 & 179.

17. 2025-02-28
    historical
18. 2024-09-26
    listed $129,000 Active
19. 2007-12-27
    soldstatus
20. 2007-11-29
    historical
21. 2007-09-20
    listed $72,500
22. 2005-05-04
    soldstatus
23. 2005-03-31
    historical
24. 2004-08-30
    listed $62,000
25. 1974-10-05
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,187 · $99/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,806 · $317/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,619/yr (+$218/mo · 220.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥108°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 24% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,968
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,651
• − Property taxes: −$1,187
• − Insurance: −$1,040
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,997
• − Management: −$1,997
• − HOA: −$24
• − Depreciation: −$6,051
• Taxable income: $1,019
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$245
• After-tax cash flow: $4,139/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Granbury ISD
• NCES district ID: 4821390
• Math proficiency: 46% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $55,856
• Composite: 40.04/100
• National rank: #3820
• State rank: #237 of 826 in TX

Livability — Granbury

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #628
• US rank: #11998

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Hood County · 58,506 people
• City population: 58,506
• Metro: Granbury, TX
• Population (ZIP): 31,506
• Household income: $104,967
• Rent vs Own: 12.3% rent · 87.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 235.0

Population outlook (Hood County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 63,502 people
• By 2030: 67,459 · +6.2%
• By 2040: 74,958 · +18.0%
• By 2050: 81,922 · +29.0%
• By 2075: 98,872 · +55.7%
• By 2100: 107,796 · +69.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Serbian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Hood

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+66.0) · D 16.6% · R 82.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.9pp toward R · 2008: -54.0pp · 2024: -66.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+66.0 2020: R+64.1 2016: R+66.5 2012: R+64.7 2008: R+54.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -100.09%
• Current HPI: 273.1293
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.20%
• Metro: Granbury, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+235.5% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-14 Price Changed $208,000 NTREIS
• 2026-03-27 Listed $210,000 NTREIS
• 2025-02-28 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-09-26 Listed $129,000 HARMLS
• 2007-12-27 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2007-11-29 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2007-09-20 Listed $72,500 NTREIS
• 2005-05-04 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2005-03-31 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2004-08-30 Listed $62,000 NTREIS
• 1974-10-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+1.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,187 · -2.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.