2902 Stratton Heights Ln · Sealy, TX 77474

$284,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,655 sqft · SingleFamily · 67 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition $172/sqft · 16% below area Est $338k · 16% under ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.6/15.0
• Cash flow +10.4/30.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

ESTIMATED COMPLETION DATE JULY 2026. Welcome to the Austin floorplan at Westward Pointe. This 1,655 sq. ft. single-story home that blends open living with comfortable private spaces The welcoming foyer leads into a light-filled family room, creating a natural gathering space at the heart of the home. Just beyond, the kitchen delivers both style and function with premium countertops, sleek cabinetry, stainless steel appliances, and a smooth connection to the dining area for everyday meals or casual hosting. The primary suite is set apart for privacy and comfort, featuring a walk-in closet and a well-appointed en-suite bath.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Built 2026
• Listed 66 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $285k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-153 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $263k (7.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $230k (19.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $230k (19.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 3.4% in Sealy — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#342 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Lamar CISD (suburban): math 50% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #116 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Joe Hubenak El (math 57% / reading 61%, grade B-, #455 of 4,322 statewide, top 11%, 1,214 students, 37% FRL); Briscoe J H (math 59% / reading 60%, grade B, #166 of 1,662 statewide, top 11%, 1,914 students, 38% FRL); Foster H S (math 64% / reading 74%, grade B, #141 of 1,632 statewide, top 9%, 2,388 students, 34% FRL).
• Market conditions: 438 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($76k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 67 days — a 6% lower offer ($268k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $230,000 (19.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 67 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.65%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.29%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $338,293
• List price: $284,990
• Delta: -15.76%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9858 Copper Ranch Trl	0.43mi	4/2.0	1,538 (-7%)	2mo	$295,000	$192	67
26302 Stonedale View Dr	0.24mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,810 (+9%)	3mo	$334,000	$185	66
9842 Copper Ranch Trl	0.41mi	4/2.0	1,508 (-9%)	5mo	$285,000	$189	62
9815 Willow Crown Ln	0.42mi	4/2.0	1,899 (+15%)	2mo	$315,000	$166	54
9415 Summer River Dr	0.43mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,837 (+11%)	3mo	$310,000	$169	54
25931 Dancing Stream Ct	0.42mi	4/2.0	1,899 (+15%)	7mo	$319,000	$168	50
26807 Concord Dawn Dr	0.71mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,722 (+4%)	4mo	$359,900	$209	50
10414 Starfire Yellow Dr	0.73mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,755 (+6%)	3mo	$379,990	$217	49
26831 Concord Dawn Dr	0.73mi	4/3.0	1,785 (+8%)	2mo	$374,900	$210	47
10418 Starfire Yellow Dr	0.74mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,743 (+5%)	4mo	$359,900	$206	47
10143 Lilac Croft Ln	0.62mi	4/3.0	1,845 (+12%)	7mo	$337,990	$183	42
10422 Starfire Yellow Dr	0.75mi	4/3.0	1,878 (+14%)	2mo	$379,900	$202	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.30×
• Total profit: $-55,859
• Equity at exit: $42,493

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.24×
• Total profit: $-61,007
• Equity at exit: $24,641

Cash invested: $79,797 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 38 active · 21 under contract
• Months of supply: 14.2 mo (7%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $372,490 ($210/sqft)
• Median days on market: 94 d
• This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
• ARV vs active asking: -2.5% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77474

• Active inventory: 438
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,300 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,495
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$356 /mo · $4,275/yr
• Insurance: −$119
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$483
• Net cashflow: $-153

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,493

Max offer price $262,923

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $44	-5% $-54	+0% $-153	+5% $-251	+10% $-349
Rent	-10% $-334	-5% $-243	+0% $-153	+5% $-62	+10% $29
Rate	-1.0pp $-9	-0.5pp $-80	base $-153	+0.5pp $-226	+1.0pp $-301

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $71,248
• Closing costs: $8,550
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9547 Summer River Dr Richmond, TX	4.0	2.0	1930	$2,300	$1.19	46d	1	0.51mi
26831 Chandrila Vista Ct Richmond, TX	3.0	2.0	1740	$2,300	$1.32	30d	1	0.96mi

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-09-24
   days on market $284,990 Active 67 DOM
2. 2026-09-23
   days on market $284,990 Active 66 DOM
3. 2026-09-22
   days on market $284,990 Active 65 DOM
4. 2026-09-21
   days on market $284,990 Active 64 DOM
5. 2026-09-20
   days on market $284,990 Active 63 DOM
6. 2026-09-18
   days on market $284,990 Active 61 DOM
7. 2026-09-16
   days on market $284,990 Active 59 DOM
8. 2026-09-15
   days on market $284,990 Active 58 DOM
9. 2026-09-14
   days on market $284,990 Active 57 DOM
10. 2026-09-13
    days on market $284,990 Active 56 DOM
11. 2026-09-12
    days on market $284,990 Active 55 DOM
12. 2026-09-11
    days on market $284,990 Active 54 DOM
13. 2026-09-05
    days on market $284,990 Active 48 DOM
14. 2026-09-04
    days on market $284,990 Active 47 DOM
15. 2026-09-02
    pricedays on market $284,990 Active 45 DOM
16. 2026-06-04
    days on market $285,490 Active 42 DOM
17. 2026-06-03
    days on market $285,490 Active 41 DOM
18. 2026-06-02
    days on market $285,490 Active 40 DOM
19. 2026-06-01
    days on market $285,490 Active 39 DOM
20. 2026-05-31
    days on market $285,490 Active 38 DOM
21. 2026-05-17
    price $285,490 902-char remark
22. 2026-05-16
    price $283,490 902-char remark
23. 2026-05-02
    price $282,990 902-char remark
24. 2026-04-29
    price $273,990 902-char remark
25. 2026-04-29
    price $273,990 906-char remark
26. 2026-04-24
    price $278,990 902-char remark
27. 2026-04-23
    price $278,990 906-char remark
28. 2026-04-23
    listed $282,990 Active 902-char remark
29. 2026-04-22
    listed $282,990 Active 906-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,600
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,964
• − Property taxes: −$4,275
• − Insurance: −$1,425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,208
• − Management: −$2,208
• − Depreciation: −$8,291
• Taxable loss: −$6,770
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,625
• After-tax cash flow: $-205/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 3 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This single-story home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. It offers a well-maintained interior and exterior, making it a move-in-ready property with high resale and rental potential.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Lighting — Upgrading lighting fixtures can improve the home's ambiance and energy efficiency ↑
• Both Window treatments — Adding curtains or blinds can enhance privacy and energy efficiency ↑
• Both Flooring — Replacing worn-out flooring can improve the home's overall appearance and comfort ↑
• Both Kitchen appliances — Upgrading appliances can increase the home's appeal and functionality ↑
• Both Bathroom fixtures — Updating fixtures can improve the home's functionality and aesthetic appeal ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 38/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Selman El F TX #2,174/4,322 Nat'l #24,455/41,679 High Sealy H S F TX #713/1,632 Nat'l #7,439/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lamar CISD
• NCES district ID: 4826580
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $75,213
• Composite: 46.43/100
• National rank: #2452
• State rank: #116 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 70/100

Livability — Sealy

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #342
• US rank: #7463

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety B User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Austin · 1,004,526 people
• Metro: Houston-Pasadena-The Woodlands, TX
• Population (ZIP): 14,846
• Household income: $76,210
• Rent vs Own: 20.6% rent · 79.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 16% of renters

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Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 56% Hispanic / Latino 32% Black 9% Two or more races 8% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 28%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 24% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -130.57%
• Current HPI: 195.9491
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-3.2% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-04-29 Price Changed $273,990 HARMLS
• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $278,990 HARMLS
• 2026-04-22 Listed $282,990 HARMLS