9121 Montana St · Godley, TX 76058

$215,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,456 sqft · Manufactured public records · 66 Days on market

Built 2005 1.03 ac lot $148/sqft · 20% below area Est $267k · 20% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.5/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.2/10.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Space, Acreage, and a Location You'll Love! This wonderful 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers the perfect combination of space, functionality, and a great location — all with the added bonus of acreage that gives you room to truly spread out and make it your own. The open floor plan feels bright and welcoming from the moment you step inside, with the spacious kitchen offering easy sight lines to both the living and dining spaces. Two dining areas provide exceptional flexibility — ideal for everyday meals, entertaining, or creating a dedicated breakfast nook alongside a more formal gathering space. With this much room and a floor plan designed for real life, there's plenty of space to grow into for years to come. The primary suite is thoughtfully positioned for privacy, complete with a private ensuite bathroom. The secondary bedrooms are well-placed within the floor plan, offering comfort and functionality for family, guests, or a home office. Outside, the large backyard is ready for whatever you envision — weekend entertaining, gardening, play space, or simply enjoying the open air and room to roam that this property delivers. Close to area shopping, dining, and everyday amenities, you get the best of both worlds: elbow room and convenience. Space, a smart floor plan, and a location that checks every box — book your tour with me before this one is gone!

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Two dining areas
• Spacious kitchen

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• TWO DINING AREAS
• LARGE BACKYARD
• PRIVATE ENSUITE BATHROOM
• CLOSE TO AREA SHOPPING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $215k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $243 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $209k (2.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $202k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.7% vs local median 2.8% in Godley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#226 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Godley ISD (rural): math 34% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #466 of 826 in TX (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Legacy El (math 39% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,709 of 4,322 statewide, top 40%, 408 students, 32% FRL); Godley H S (math 27% / reading 51%, grade F, #859 of 1,632 statewide, top 53%, 777 students, 42% FRL).
• Market conditions: 421 active listings in the ZIP; 2,152 units permitted in Johnson County in 2024 (76 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Johnson County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 66 days — a 6% lower offer ($202k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 15y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $202,100 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 66 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.65%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.85%
• DSCR: 1.22
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $267,085
• List price: $215,000
• Delta: -19.50%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9201 Montana St	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,568 (+8%)	17mo	$229,900	$147	68
5613 Texas St	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,456 (0%)	10mo	$229,000	$157	62
9220 Kansas St	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,456 (0%)	22mo	$199,900	$137	58
5912 Kentucky St	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,568 (+8%)	4mo	$249,000	$159	57
8717 Skyline Dr	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,344 (-8%)	11mo	$275,000	$205	52
9201 1st St	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,568 (+8%)	13mo	$229,000	$146	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.68×
• Total profit: $-19,355
• Equity at exit: $32,057

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.05×
• Total profit: $3,035
• Equity at exit: $18,589

Cash invested: $60,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76058

• Home prices YoY: -24.5%
• Active inventory: 421
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,087 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,127
• Tax from tax record: −$188 /mo · $2,255/yr
• Insurance: −$90
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$438
• Net cashflow: $243

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,778

Max offer price $215,000

Occupancy floor 83%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $365	-5% $304	+0% $243	+5% $183	+10% $122
Rent	-10% $79	-5% $161	+0% $243	+5% $326	+10% $408
Rate	-1.0pp $352	-0.5pp $298	base $243	+0.5pp $188	+1.0pp $131

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $53,750
• Closing costs: $6,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-05-19
   status Pending 1394-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1394 chars)

   Space, Acreage, and a Location You'll Love! This wonderful 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers the perfect combination of space, functionality, and a great location — all with the added bonus of acreage that gives you room to truly spread out and make it your own. The open floor plan feels bright and welcoming from the moment you step inside, with the spacious kitchen offering easy sight lines to both the living and dining spaces. Two dining areas provide exceptional flexibility — ideal for everyday meals, entertaining, or creating a dedicated breakfast nook alongside a more formal gathering space. With this much room and a floor plan designed for real life, there's plenty of space to grow into for years to come. The primary suite is thoughtfully positioned for privacy, complete with a private ensuite bathroom. The secondary bedrooms are well-placed within the floor plan, offering comfort and functionality for family, guests, or a home office. Outside, the large backyard is ready for whatever you envision — weekend entertaining, gardening, play space, or simply enjoying the open air and room to roam that this property delivers. Close to area shopping, dining, and everyday amenities, you get the best of both worlds: elbow room and convenience. Space, a smart floor plan, and a location that checks every box — book your tour with me before this one is gone!

2. 2026-03-14
   listed $215,000 Active 1394-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1394 chars)

   Space, Acreage, and a Location You'll Love! This wonderful 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers the perfect combination of space, functionality, and a great location — all with the added bonus of acreage that gives you room to truly spread out and make it your own. The open floor plan feels bright and welcoming from the moment you step inside, with the spacious kitchen offering easy sight lines to both the living and dining spaces. Two dining areas provide exceptional flexibility — ideal for everyday meals, entertaining, or creating a dedicated breakfast nook alongside a more formal gathering space. With this much room and a floor plan designed for real life, there's plenty of space to grow into for years to come. The primary suite is thoughtfully positioned for privacy, complete with a private ensuite bathroom. The secondary bedrooms are well-placed within the floor plan, offering comfort and functionality for family, guests, or a home office. Outside, the large backyard is ready for whatever you envision — weekend entertaining, gardening, play space, or simply enjoying the open air and room to roam that this property delivers. Close to area shopping, dining, and everyday amenities, you get the best of both worlds: elbow room and convenience. Space, a smart floor plan, and a location that checks every box — book your tour with me before this one is gone!

3. 2011-07-07
   soldstatus
4. 2011-07-05
   soldstatus Closed 345-char remark

   Show marketing remark (345 chars)

   Great location! This 3 bedroom 2 bath home has a great open floor plan, with plenty of room in the large back yard!!! If you like to entertain, you will enjoy the spacious kitchen with two dining areas. Pick up your phone and call your agent now!! 1568 square feet-information is from the FHA Appraisal and is deemed reliable but not guaranteed.

5. 2011-06-16
   status Pending 345-char remark

   Show marketing remark (345 chars)

   Great location! This 3 bedroom 2 bath home has a great open floor plan, with plenty of room in the large back yard!!! If you like to entertain, you will enjoy the spacious kitchen with two dining areas. Pick up your phone and call your agent now!! 1568 square feet-information is from the FHA Appraisal and is deemed reliable but not guaranteed.

6. 2011-06-01
   listed $25,000 Active 345-char remark

   Show marketing remark (345 chars)

   Great location! This 3 bedroom 2 bath home has a great open floor plan, with plenty of room in the large back yard!!! If you like to entertain, you will enjoy the spacious kitchen with two dining areas. Pick up your phone and call your agent now!! 1568 square feet-information is from the FHA Appraisal and is deemed reliable but not guaranteed.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,255 · $188/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,934 · $328/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,679/yr (+$140/mo · 74.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,039
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,043
• − Property taxes: −$2,255
• − Insurance: −$1,075
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,003
• − Management: −$2,003
• − Depreciation: −$6,255
• Taxable loss: −$595
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$143
• After-tax cash flow: $3,064/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Godley ISD
• NCES district ID: 4820960
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $59,332
• Composite: 32.06/100
• National rank: #5820
• State rank: #466 of 826 in TX

Livability — Godley

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #226
• US rank: #5528

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 21,531

Population outlook (Johnson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 179,678 people
• By 2030: 189,208 · +5.3%
• By 2040: 207,261 · +15.4%
• By 2050: 223,064 · +24.1%
• By 2075: 259,979 · +44.7%
• By 2100: 275,395 · +53.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Hispanic / Latino 28% Two or more races 11% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 18% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Johnson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.4) · D 23.9% · R 75.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.9pp toward R · 2008: -47.5pp · 2024: -51.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.4 2020: R+53.0 2016: R+58.3 2012: R+55.6 2008: R+47.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -86.22%
• Current HPI: 265.6513
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+760.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-03-14 Listed $215,000 NTREIS
• 2011-07-07 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2011-07-05 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2011-06-16 Pending — NTREIS
• 2011-06-01 Listed $25,000 NTREIS

Property tax history

+5.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,255 · +10.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.