10020 Lavinder Ln · Burleson, TX 76036

$254,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,792 sqft · Manufactured public records · 64 Days on market

Built 2011 1.50 ac lot $142/sqft · 23% below area Est $332k · 23% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.7/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.2/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

New Amazon Warehouse: 15 miles. 15 minutes to work! Welcome to your very own slice of Texas paradise! This spacious double-wide home offers the perfect blend of comfort, modern layout, and serene country living. Nestled on a sprawling 1.5 acre lot, this property features a bright and airy open-concept floor plan designed for easy living and entertaining. You’ll love the generously sized rooms that provide plenty of space for everyone to spread out. Step outside to your backyard oasis, which backs up directly to the beautiful Rock Creek—a haven for local wildlife and those who enjoy the peaceful sounds of nature. Located off the historic Chisholm Trail, this home offers a quiet rural atmosphere while keeping you close to city conveniences. Enjoy the best of both worlds with a Crowley address while being situated in the highly-regarded Joshua ISD! We want you to buy with confidence, so an engineer's report has already been completed and is provided for your peace of mind. Whether you’re interested in hunting, watching the wildlife, or just enjoying wide-open spaces, this property is a rare find.

Key facts

• Crowley address
• 1.5 acre lot
• Joshua isd

Tags

• 1.5 ACRE LOT
• OPEN-CONCEPT FLOOR PLAN
• BACKYARD OASIS
• QUIET RURAL ATMOSPHERE
• CROWLEY ADDRESS
• JOSHUA ISD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $255k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $158 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $228k (10.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $228k (10.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.0% vs local median 3.5% in Burleson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#53 in TX, #2,133 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Joshua ISD (rural): math 52% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #139 of 826 in TX (top 17%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.3%/yr); 1018 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 2,152 units permitted in Johnson County in 2024 (76 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Johnson County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 64 days — a 6% lower offer ($240k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $228,066 (10.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 64 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 11% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.04%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.66%
• DSCR: 1.12
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $331,757
• List price: $254,900
• Delta: -23.17%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 6 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.28% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.54×
• Total profit: $-32,914
• Equity at exit: $38,006

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.68×
• Total profit: $-22,485
• Equity at exit: $22,039

Cash invested: $71,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76036

• Home prices YoY: -25.2%
• Rents YoY: 2.3%
• Active inventory: 1018
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,281 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,337
• Tax from tax record: −$201 /mo · $2,408/yr
• Insurance: −$106
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$479
• Net cashflow: $158

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,081

Max offer price $254,900

Occupancy floor 88%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $63,725
• Closing costs: $7,647
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $254,900 Active 64 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $254,900 Active 63 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $254,900 Active 62 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $254,900 Active 61 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $254,900 Active 59 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $254,900 Active 55 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $254,900 Active 54 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on market $254,900 Active 53 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $259,900 Active 50 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $259,900 Active 49 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $259,900 Active 48 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $259,900 Active 47 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    price $259,900 Active 46 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $263,900 Active 46 DOM
15. 2026-05-15
    price $264,900 1132-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1132 chars)

    New Amazon Warehouse: 15 miles. 15 minutes to work! Welcome to your very own slice of Texas paradise! This spacious double-wide home offers the perfect blend of comfort, modern layout, and serene country living. Nestled on a sprawling 1.5 acre lot, this property features a bright and airy open-concept floor plan designed for easy living and entertaining. You’ll love the generously sized rooms that provide plenty of space for everyone to spread out. Step outside to your backyard oasis, which backs up directly to the beautiful Rock Creek—a haven for local wildlife and those who enjoy the peaceful sounds of nature. Located off the historic Chisholm Trail, this home offers a quiet rural atmosphere while keeping you close to city conveniences. Enjoy the best of both worlds with a Crowley address while being situated in the highly-regarded Joshua ISD! We want you to buy with confidence, so an engineer's report has already been completed and is provided for your peace of mind. Whether you’re interested in hunting, watching the wildlife, or just enjoying wide-open spaces, this property is a rare find.

16. 2026-05-11
    price $267,900 1132-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1132 chars)

    New Amazon Warehouse: 15 miles. 15 minutes to work! Welcome to your very own slice of Texas paradise! This spacious double-wide home offers the perfect blend of comfort, modern layout, and serene country living. Nestled on a sprawling 1.5 acre lot, this property features a bright and airy open-concept floor plan designed for easy living and entertaining. You’ll love the generously sized rooms that provide plenty of space for everyone to spread out. Step outside to your backyard oasis, which backs up directly to the beautiful Rock Creek—a haven for local wildlife and those who enjoy the peaceful sounds of nature. Located off the historic Chisholm Trail, this home offers a quiet rural atmosphere while keeping you close to city conveniences. Enjoy the best of both worlds with a Crowley address while being situated in the highly-regarded Joshua ISD! We want you to buy with confidence, so an engineer's report has already been completed and is provided for your peace of mind. Whether you’re interested in hunting, watching the wildlife, or just enjoying wide-open spaces, this property is a rare find.

17. 2026-04-30
    price $268,900 1132-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1132 chars)

    New Amazon Warehouse: 15 miles. 15 minutes to work! Welcome to your very own slice of Texas paradise! This spacious double-wide home offers the perfect blend of comfort, modern layout, and serene country living. Nestled on a sprawling 1.5 acre lot, this property features a bright and airy open-concept floor plan designed for easy living and entertaining. You’ll love the generously sized rooms that provide plenty of space for everyone to spread out. Step outside to your backyard oasis, which backs up directly to the beautiful Rock Creek—a haven for local wildlife and those who enjoy the peaceful sounds of nature. Located off the historic Chisholm Trail, this home offers a quiet rural atmosphere while keeping you close to city conveniences. Enjoy the best of both worlds with a Crowley address while being situated in the highly-regarded Joshua ISD! We want you to buy with confidence, so an engineer's report has already been completed and is provided for your peace of mind. Whether you’re interested in hunting, watching the wildlife, or just enjoying wide-open spaces, this property is a rare find.

18. 2026-04-23
    price $269,900 1132-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1132 chars)

    New Amazon Warehouse: 15 miles. 15 minutes to work! Welcome to your very own slice of Texas paradise! This spacious double-wide home offers the perfect blend of comfort, modern layout, and serene country living. Nestled on a sprawling 1.5 acre lot, this property features a bright and airy open-concept floor plan designed for easy living and entertaining. You’ll love the generously sized rooms that provide plenty of space for everyone to spread out. Step outside to your backyard oasis, which backs up directly to the beautiful Rock Creek—a haven for local wildlife and those who enjoy the peaceful sounds of nature. Located off the historic Chisholm Trail, this home offers a quiet rural atmosphere while keeping you close to city conveniences. Enjoy the best of both worlds with a Crowley address while being situated in the highly-regarded Joshua ISD! We want you to buy with confidence, so an engineer's report has already been completed and is provided for your peace of mind. Whether you’re interested in hunting, watching the wildlife, or just enjoying wide-open spaces, this property is a rare find.

19. 2026-04-15
    listed $274,900 Active 1132-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1132 chars)

    New Amazon Warehouse: 15 miles. 15 minutes to work! Welcome to your very own slice of Texas paradise! This spacious double-wide home offers the perfect blend of comfort, modern layout, and serene country living. Nestled on a sprawling 1.5 acre lot, this property features a bright and airy open-concept floor plan designed for easy living and entertaining. You’ll love the generously sized rooms that provide plenty of space for everyone to spread out. Step outside to your backyard oasis, which backs up directly to the beautiful Rock Creek—a haven for local wildlife and those who enjoy the peaceful sounds of nature. Located off the historic Chisholm Trail, this home offers a quiet rural atmosphere while keeping you close to city conveniences. Enjoy the best of both worlds with a Crowley address while being situated in the highly-regarded Joshua ISD! We want you to buy with confidence, so an engineer's report has already been completed and is provided for your peace of mind. Whether you’re interested in hunting, watching the wildlife, or just enjoying wide-open spaces, this property is a rare find.

20. 2025-01-31
    soldstatus Closed 206-char remark

    Show marketing remark (206 chars)

    Location, location! Well maintained double wide that backs up to beautiful Rock Creek. Country living that's close to the city. Buyer and buyers agent to confirm square footage and school attendance zones.

21. 2025-01-31
    soldstatus

    Show marketing remark (206 chars)

    Location, location! Well maintained double wide that backs up to beautiful Rock Creek. Country living that's close to the city. Buyer and buyers agent to confirm square footage and school attendance zones.

22. 2025-01-13
    status Pending 206-char remark

    Show marketing remark (206 chars)

    Location, location! Well maintained double wide that backs up to beautiful Rock Creek. Country living that's close to the city. Buyer and buyers agent to confirm square footage and school attendance zones.

23. 2025-01-08
    historical Active Option Contract 206-char remark

    Show marketing remark (206 chars)

    Location, location! Well maintained double wide that backs up to beautiful Rock Creek. Country living that's close to the city. Buyer and buyers agent to confirm square footage and school attendance zones.

24. 2025-01-07
    listed $255,000 Active 206-char remark

    Show marketing remark (206 chars)

    Location, location! Well maintained double wide that backs up to beautiful Rock Creek. Country living that's close to the city. Buyer and buyers agent to confirm square footage and school attendance zones.

25. 2016-03-14
    soldstatus
26. 2012-03-15
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,408 · $201/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,665 · $389/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,256/yr (+$188/mo · 93.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,368
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,278
• − Property taxes: −$2,408
• − Insurance: −$1,274
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,189
• − Management: −$2,189
• − Depreciation: −$7,415
• Taxable loss: −$2,387
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$573
• After-tax cash flow: $2,470/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Joshua ISD
• NCES district ID: 4824930
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $60,696
• Composite: 44.65/100
• National rank: #2769
• State rank: #139 of 826 in TX

Livability — Burleson

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #53
• US rank: #2133

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Tarrant County · 2,033,669 people
• City population: 81,549
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 36,044
• Household income: $97,973
• Rent vs Own: 23.7% rent · 76.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 584.0

Population outlook (Johnson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 179,678 people
• By 2030: 189,208 · +5.3%
• By 2040: 207,261 · +15.4%
• By 2050: 223,064 · +24.1%
• By 2075: 259,979 · +44.7%
• By 2100: 275,395 · +53.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: White 48% Hispanic / Latino 28% Black 20% Two or more races 14% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 23% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 18% Other Indo-European 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Johnson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.4) · D 23.9% · R 75.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.9pp toward R · 2008: -47.5pp · 2024: -51.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.4 2020: R+53.0 2016: R+58.3 2012: R+55.6 2008: R+47.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -80.45%
• Current HPI: 238.6365
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.28%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+3.9% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $264,900 NTREIS
• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $267,900 NTREIS
• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $268,900 NTREIS
• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $269,900 NTREIS
• 2026-04-15 Listed $274,900 NTREIS
• 2025-01-31 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2025-01-31 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2025-01-13 Pending — NTREIS
• 2025-01-08 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2025-01-07 Listed $255,000 NTREIS
• 2016-03-14 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2012-03-15 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+20.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,408 · +5.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.