407 N 1st St · Fairbury, IL 61739

$124,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,232 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 2 Days on market

Built 1954 Est $145k · 14% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.8/15.0
• Cash flow +13.0/30.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +2.1/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Cozy home with eat-in kitchen, low maintenance exterior. Large concrete patio.

Key facts

• Off street parking
• Flexible layout
• Usable yard

Tags

• FUNCTIONAL LAYOUT
• FLEXIBLE LAYOUT
• ORIGINAL CHARACTER ELEMENTS
• OFF STREET PARKING
• USABLE YARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-6 ($-72/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $124k (0.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $104k (17.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $104k (17.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#176 in IL, #3,357 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Prairie Central CUSD 8 (rural): math 32% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #223 of 620 in IL (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 21 active listings in the ZIP; 35 units permitted in Livingston County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Livingston County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $66k; list at $125k implies a 91% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1954 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $103,709 (17.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1954 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.24%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.21%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $145,376
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
205 E Hickory St	0.28mi	2/1.0	1,152 (-6%)	12mo	$92,600	$80	66
509 E Ash St	0.56mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,187 (-4%)	2mo	$210,000	$177	61
304 W Elm St	0.39mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,276 (+4%)	8mo	$185,000	$145	60
402 W Ash St	0.15mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,394 (+13%)	5mo	$80,000	$57	58
505 E Locust St	0.60mi	2/1.0	1,200 (-3%)	14mo	$144,000	$120	57
500 W Elm St	0.43mi	2/1.0	1,300 (+6%)	20mo	$146,000	$112	54
205 E Oak St	0.56mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,308 (+6%)	1mo	$125,000	$96	54
404 E Ash St	0.45mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,106 (-10%)	2mo	$147,500	$133	51
507 W Ash St	0.27mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,104 (-10%)	23mo	$130,000	$118	44
409 E Maple St	0.50mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,168 (-5%)	19mo	$240,000	$205	43
607 N Northview Dr	0.42mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,392 (+13%)	9mo	$160,000	$115	42
309 E Oak St	0.62mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,377 (+12%)	0mo	$130,000	$94	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-20,630
• Equity at exit: $18,623

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-18,488
• Equity at exit: $10,799

Cash invested: $34,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 61739

• Home prices YoY: -2.3%
• Active inventory: 21
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,037 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$655
• Tax from tax record: −$118 /mo · $1,419/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$218
• Net cashflow: $-6

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,045

Max offer price $123,838

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $65	-5% $29	+0% $-6	+5% $-41	+10% $-77
Rent	-10% $-88	-5% $-47	+0% $-6	+5% $35	+10% $76
Rate	-1.0pp $57	-0.5pp $26	base $-6	+0.5pp $-38	+1.0pp $-71

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,225
• Closing costs: $3,747
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-01-15
   status Pending
2. 2026-01-13
   listed $124,900 Active
3. 2019-02-21
   historical
4. 2005-03-10
   soldstatus $65,500 78-char remark

   Show marketing remark (78 chars)

   Cozy home with eat-in kitchen, low maintenance exterior. Large concrete patio.

5. 2005-03-10
   soldstatus $65,500

   Show marketing remark (78 chars)

   Cozy home with eat-in kitchen, low maintenance exterior. Large concrete patio.

6. 2004-10-08
   listed

   Show marketing remark (78 chars)

   Cozy home with eat-in kitchen, low maintenance exterior. Large concrete patio.

7. 2004-10-08
   listed $68,500 78-char remark

   Show marketing remark (78 chars)

   Cozy home with eat-in kitchen, low maintenance exterior. Large concrete patio.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,419 · $118/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,127 · $177/mo
• Expected delta: +$708/yr (+$59/mo · 49.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,445
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,996
• − Property taxes: −$1,419
• − Insurance: −$624
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$996
• − Management: −$996
• − Depreciation: −$3,633
• Taxable loss: −$2,220
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$533
• After-tax cash flow: $461/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Prairie Central CUSD 8
• NCES district ID: 1700005
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -16.00%
• Median HH income: $52,909
• Composite: 28.15/100
• National rank: #6814
• State rank: #223 of 620 in IL

Livability — Fairbury

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #176
• US rank: #3357

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fairbury, IL
• Population (ZIP): 4,673

Population outlook (Livingston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 32,749 people
• By 2030: 30,848 · -5.8%
• By 2040: 27,357 · -16.5%
• By 2050: 24,048 · -26.6%
• By 2075: 17,574 · -46.3%
• By 2100: 12,096 · -63.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Hispanic / Latino 3% Two or more races 2% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Iranian 2% German 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada

Political lean MEDSL · Livingston

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+46.3) · D 26.1% · R 72.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -27.1pp toward R · 2008: -19.2pp · 2024: -46.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+46.3 2020: R+44.2 2016: R+41.0 2012: R+31.5 2008: R+19.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -5.83%
• Current HPI: 251.2057
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

+82.3% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-15 Pending — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-13 Listed $124,900 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-02-21 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-03-10 Sold (MLS) $65,500 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-03-10 Sold (Public Records) $65,500 Public Records
• 2004-10-08 Listed $68,500 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-10-08 Listed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

-1.4%/yr

Latest (2024): $1,419 · +16.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.