Carson Plan · Huntsville, AL 35811

$264,890

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,559 sqft · SingleFamily · 25 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.6/30.0
• Rent growth +4.2/5.0
• Livability +4.1/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.6/10.0
• Appreciation +1.4/10.0
• DSCR +0.8/10.0

Listing remarks

This new single-story home design combines comfort and style. An open-plan layout connects the welcoming living room, modern kitchen and dining area, which enjoys direct access to the rear patio. Situated on opposite sides of the home for enhanced privacy are three secondary bedrooms and the serene owner's suite, equipped with an attached bathroom and walk-in closet.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Open-plan layout
• Modern kitchen

Tags

• OPEN-PLAN LAYOUT
• MODERN KITCHEN
• REAR PATIO
• OWNER'S SUITE
• WALK-IN CLOSET

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Listing status: Active; Inventory type: Plan (new construction)
• Financial info: List price $264,890

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces; 2-car garage
• Home design: Single-family home (Carson plan); Located at 128 Southern Trl, Huntsville, AL 35811
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1,559 square feet

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Plan: Carson (new construction plan)

🏗️ New construction. The $264,890 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $302,535.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $265k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-503 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $230k (13.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $201k (24.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $201k (24.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#3 in AL, #1,082 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Madison County (rural): math 27% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #19 of 129 in AL (top 15%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Mt Carmel Elementary School (math 37% / reading 72%, grade C, #87 of 627 statewide, top 15%, 646 students, 34% FRL); Buckhorn Middle School (math 19% / reading 59%, grade F, #64 of 257 statewide, top 25%, 688 students, 38% FRL); Buckhorn High School (math 31% / reading 33%, grade F, #59 of 305 statewide, top 21%, 1,287 students, 34% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.8%/yr); 570 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 44% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 4,709 units permitted in Madison County in 2024 (1,186 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Madison County population projected at +18% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 25 days — a 2% lower offer ($261k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $201,015 (24.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.66% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.30%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.12%
• DSCR: 0.68
• GRM: 12.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $302,535
• List price: $264,890
• Delta: -12.44%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
249 Catalyst St	0.17mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,556 (-0%)	1mo	$286,500	$184	86
305 Pond Spring Dr	0.18mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,703 (+9%)	5mo	$285,650	$168	67
304 Pond Spring Dr	0.18mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,703 (+9%)	6mo	$265,000	$156	66
314 Pond Spring Dr	0.18mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,703 (+9%)	6mo	$286,990	$169	66
114 Starling Mill Trl	0.23mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,355 (-13%)	1mo	$245,390	$181	62
108 Cool Cir	0.19mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,703 (+9%)	11mo	$299,490	$176	62
104 Cool Cir	0.17mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,703 (+9%)	13mo	$295,490	$174	61
135 Oakcrest Rd	0.74mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,551 (-0%)	4mo	$167,000	$108	56
377 Robinson Rd	0.68mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,525 (-2%)	10mo	$266,000	$174	52
155 Oakcrest Rd	0.72mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,563 (+0%)	13mo	$246,000	$157	50
3102 Ray Blair Pl	0.70mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,520 (-2%)	12mo	$286,000	$188	48
105 Umbra Cir	0.59mi	4/2.0	1,730 (+11%)	15mo	$279,900	$162	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.81% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.14×
• Total profit: $-73,012
• Equity at exit: $45,109

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.18×
• Total profit: $-69,171
• Equity at exit: $26,158

Cash invested: $84,710 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 35811

• Home prices YoY: -2.1%
• Rents YoY: 6.8%
• Active inventory: 570
• Price-to-rent: 11.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,010 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,587
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$378 /mo · $4,538/yr
• Insurance: −$126
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$422
• Net cashflow: $-503

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,647

Max offer price $229,789

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-294	-5% $-398	+0% $-503	+5% $-607	+10% $-712
Rent	-10% $-662	-5% $-582	+0% $-503	+5% $-423	+10% $-344
Rate	-1.0pp $-350	-0.5pp $-426	base $-503	+0.5pp $-581	+1.0pp $-661

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $75,634
• Closing costs: $9,076
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
154 SOUTHERN Trl Huntsville, AL	4.0	2.0	2106	$2,070	$0.98	45d	1	0.16mi
186 Pennington Ave Huntsville, AL	3.0	2.5	2209	$2,100	$0.95	25d	1	0.32mi
144 Oakcrest Rd Huntsville, AL	3.0	2.0	2153	$1,695	$0.79	23d	1	0.74mi
149 Wolfe Ln Huntsville, AL	3.0	3.0	1442	$2,000	$1.39	15d	1	1.05mi
147 Wolfe Ln Huntsville, AL	3.0	3.0	1442	$2,100	$1.46	15d	1	1.05mi
128 Somerset Park Dr Huntsville, AL	3.0	2.0	1570	$1,750	$1.11	25d	1	1.12mi
229 Paca Ln Huntsville, AL	3.0	2.0	1850	$1,950	$1.05	45d	1	1.14mi
244 Paca Ln Huntsville, AL	4.0	2.0	2106	$2,150	$1.02	45d	1	1.14mi
244 Paca Ln Huntsville, AL	4.0	2.0	2106	$2,150	$1.02	25d	1	1.14mi
119 Wind Rush Rd Huntsville, AL	3.0	2.0	1690	$1,875	$1.11	45d	1	1.15mi
153 LILLIAN FARMS Blvd Huntsville, AL	3.0	2.0	1703	$1,900	$1.12	25d	1	1.16mi
150 LILLIAN FARMS Blvd Huntsville, AL	3.0	2.0	1703	$1,900	$1.12	25d	1	1.16mi
313 Mchenry DR Huntsville, AL	4.0	3.0	1938	$1,970	$1.02	45d	1	1.21mi
6107 Trailwood Dr Huntsville, AL	3.0	2.0	1879	$1,650	$0.88	25d	1	1.24mi
6111 Homestead Rd Huntsville, AL	4.0	2.0	1640	$2,500	$1.52	45d	1	1.42mi
123 Ann Bradley Dr Huntsville, AL	3.0	2.0	1165	$1,500	$1.29	45d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $264,890 Active 25 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $264,890 Active 22 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $264,890 Active 21 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $264,890 Active 20 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $264,890 Active 19 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $264,890 Active 17 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $264,890 Active 14 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $264,890 Active 13 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $264,890 Active 12 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $264,890 Active 11 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $264,890 Active 6 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $264,890 Active 5 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $264,890 Active 4 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $264,890 Active 3 DOM
15. 2026-05-02
    price $262,640 369-char remark
16. 2026-04-23
    price $257,640 369-char remark
17. 2026-03-22
    price $256,640 369-char remark
18. 2026-02-16
    listed $256,390 Active 369-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 14% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,122
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,947
• − Property taxes: −$4,538
• − Insurance: −$1,513
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,930
• − Management: −$1,930
• − Depreciation: −$8,801
• Taxable loss: −$11,536
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,769
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,264/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Madison County
• NCES district ID: 0102220
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -32.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $66,058
• Composite: 37.15/100
• National rank: #4483
• State rank: #19 of 129 in AL

Livability — Huntsville

• Score: 82/100
• State rank: #3
• US rank: #1082

Category grades

Amenities B Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Madison County · 380,832 people
• City population: 220,435
• Metro: Huntsville, AL
• Population (ZIP): 31,008
• Household income: $90,812
• Rent vs Own: 22.4% rent · 77.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 517.0

Population outlook (Madison County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 392,086 people
• By 2030: 409,788 · +4.5%
• By 2040: 440,557 · +12.4%
• By 2050: 460,990 · +17.6%
• By 2075: 502,872 · +28.3%
• By 2100: 513,623 · +31.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Black 27% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Madison

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+9.0) · D 44.7% · R 53.7% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.0pp toward D · 2008: -14.9pp · 2024: -9.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+9.0 2020: R+8.0 2016: R+16.8 2012: R+18.7 2008: R+14.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -7.13%
• Current HPI: 332.9423
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.81%
• Metro: Huntsville, AL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B