45 Nicole · Ransomville, NY 14131

$99,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 949 sqft · Manufactured · 38 Days on market

Built 1972 Good condition 435 sqft lot $104/sqft · 37% below area Est $157k · 37% under ↓ 21% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.5/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +6.5/10.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Completely refreshed and move-in ready 3 bedroom, 1 bath home in Rainbow Park! This fully updated home offers stylish upgrades throughout. Including brand new vinyl flooring, new carpet, modern light fixtures, and windows - this is one you don't want to miss! Additional major updates include a newer roof and furnace. Situated on a spacious lot with room to enjoy the outdoors, this home combines comfort, affordability, and peace of mind.

Key facts

• New furnace
• Vinyl flooring
• New carpet

Tags

• VINYL FLOORING
• NEW CARPET
• MODERN LIGHT FIXTURES
• NEWER ROOF
• NEW FURNACE
• SPACIOUS LOT

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Land lease payment: $530
• HOA & community: Has land lease

Exterior

• Parking: No garage; Driveway parking
• Utilities: Electricity connected (circuit breakers); Public water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Single-wide mobile home; Single-story; Existing/resale property; Private road frontage
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Asphalt shingle roof; Built as existing structure
• Exterior features: Enclosed porch; Open porch; Blacktop driveway; Gravel driveway; Shed(s) and storage

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas range; Gas oven; Range hood; Exhaust fan; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms on the main level
• Flooring: Carpet; Luxury vinyl; Varies
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Propane heating; Forced air heating; Window and wall air conditioning units
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; Kitchen/family room combo; Solid surface counters; Bedroom on main level; Sunroom/Florida room
• Laundry & utility: Main level laundry; Washer; Propane water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $99k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $131 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $99k).
• Recommended offer: $96k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 2.6% in Ransomville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#548 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Wilson Central School District (town): math 52% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #319 of 590 in NY (top 54%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Wilson Elementary School (math 57% / reading 57%, grade C+, #842 of 2,108 statewide, top 43%, 466 students, 46% FRL); Wilson Middle/High School (math 49% / reading 52%, grade D+, #972 of 1,100 statewide, top 88%, 514 students, 41% FRL) — zoned schools average 43% FRL vs 27% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 32 active listings in the ZIP; 167 units permitted in Niagara County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $11k of equity ($684 loan paydown + $10k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Niagara County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($96k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $96,030 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.88%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.66%
• DSCR: 1.25
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $156,737
• List price: $99,000
• Delta: -36.84%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15 Rainbow Park	0.06mi	2/1.0 (-1)	980 (+3%)	13mo	$68,000	$69	76

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 28.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.25×
• Total profit: $62,258
• Equity at exit: $89,187

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.7%
• Equity multiple: 7.38×
• Total profit: $176,824
• Equity at exit: $192,335

Cash invested: $27,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14131

• Home prices YoY: 7.8%
• Active inventory: 32
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,031 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$519
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$124 /mo · $1,485/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$217
• Net cashflow: $131

Break-even live

Break-even rent $866

Max offer price $99,000

Occupancy floor 82%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $199	-5% $165	+0% $131	+5% $96	+10% $62
Rent	-10% $49	-5% $90	+0% $131	+5% $171	+10% $212
Rate	-1.0pp $181	-0.5pp $156	base $131	+0.5pp $105	+1.0pp $79

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,750
• Closing costs: $2,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $99,000 Active 38 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,000 Active 35 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $99,000 Active 34 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $99,000 Active 33 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,000 Active 32 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $99,000 Active 30 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $99,000 Active 29 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   pricedays on market $99,000 Active 27 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $122,500 Active 26 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $122,500 Active 25 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $122,500 Active 24 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $122,500 Active 20 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $122,500 Active 19 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    pricedays on market $122,500 Active 18 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $124,900 Active 17 DOM
16. 2026-05-14
    listed $124,900 Active 440-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,378
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,546
• − Property taxes: −$1,485
• − Insurance: −$495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$990
• − Management: −$990
• − Depreciation: −$2,880
• Taxable loss: −$8
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2
• After-tax cash flow: $1,570/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This fully updated mobile home is move-in ready with recent major upgrades, including a new roof and furnace. It offers a good condition score and is situated on a spacious lot with a well-maintained lawn and landscaping.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wilson Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3631560
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $57,181
• Composite: 46.37/100
• National rank: #2462
• State rank: #319 of 590 in NY

Livability — Ransomville

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #548
• US rank: #9859

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 5,339
• Population (ZIP): 5,339

Population outlook (Niagara County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 204,149 people
• By 2030: 197,900 · -3.1%
• By 2040: 182,239 · -10.7%
• By 2050: 165,198 · -19.1%
• By 2075: 129,416 · -36.6%
• By 2100: 96,222 · -52.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 14% Slovak 4% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Niagara

• 2024 margin: R (+14.9) · D 42.5% · R 57.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.9pp toward R · 2008: 1.0pp · 2024: -14.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.9 2020: R+9.7 2016: R+19.0 2012: D+0.6 2008: D+1.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 21.41%
• Current HPI: 297.4314
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-20.7% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-09 Price Changed $99,000 WNYREIS
• 2026-06-01 Price Changed $122,500 WNYREIS
• 2026-05-14 Listed $124,900 WNYREIS