Is Lavaca Plan in Sienna, TX a good investment?

CashFlowRE grades it F with a 3.9% cap rate and $-920/mo modeled cash flow at a $439,995 list price. See the full underwriting and recommended offer on the page.

What is the cap rate for Lavaca Plan?

The modeled cap rate is 3.9% — annual NOI divided by price, using CashFlowRE's rent and expense estimates.

What would this property rent for?

Estimated market rent is $2,905/month, from CashFlowRE's rent model.

🏗️ New Construction

F Composite 34.25

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

ARV discount +7.5/15.0
Cash flow +5.9/30.0
Schools +5.6/10.0
Condition / age +4.8/5.0
Appreciation +4.2/10.0
Rent growth +2.5/5.0
Livability +2.5/5.0
1% rule +1.2/10.0
DSCR +0.2/10.0

$439,995

Lavaca Plan · Sienna, TX 77459

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,496 sqft · SingleFamily · 139 Days on market

Excellent condition 2-car garage

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks

The Lavaca's welcoming porch and inviting foyer hallway with tray ceilings open onto the elegant formal dining room, offering views to the expansive great room and desirable covered patio. The well-appointed kitchen overlooks a bright casual dining area, and is complete with a large center island with breakfast bar, plenty of counter and cabinet space, and enormous walk-in pantry. The impressive primary bedroom suite is enhanced by a gorgeous cathedral ceiling, dual walk-in closets, and deluxe primary bath with dual-sink vanity, large soaking tub, luxe shower with seat, and private water closet. Secondary bedrooms feature sizable closets, one with private bath, two with shared hall bath.

Key facts

Expansive great room
Welcoming porch
2 garage spots

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $440k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

At list price, monthly cash flow is $-920 ($-11k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $332k (24.5% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $291k (34.0% below list).
Recommended offer: $291k (34.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Cap rate 3.9% vs local median 2.8% in Sienna — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
Fort Bend ISD (suburban): math 44% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #140 of 826 in TX (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Heritage Rose El (math 29% / reading 28%, grade F, #2,706 of 4,322 statewide, top 63%, 1,209 students, 83% FRL); Billy Baines Middle (math 47% / reading 53%, grade C, #347 of 1,662 statewide, top 21%, 1,296 students, 37% FRL); Ridge Point H S (math 61% / reading 69%, grade B, #198 of 1,632 statewide, top 12%, 3,170 students, 31% FRL) — zoned schools average 50% FRL vs 35% district-wide (15 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.1%/yr); 1771 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 72d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

Local home prices are declining (-1.7%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

It's been on market 139 days — a 12% lower offer ($387k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $290,515 (34.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 139 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 34% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule: 0.62% ✗
Cap rate: 3.92%
Cash-on-cash: -8.47%
DSCR: 0.62
GRM: 13.3

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp): $465,180
List price: $439,995
Delta: -3.26%
Verdict: FAIR
Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9311 Crescent Mill Dr	0.51mi	4/3.0	2,577 (+3%)	3mo	$419,900	$163	68
2023 Pembrook Pl	0.47mi	4/3.0	2,640 (+6%)	1mo	$650,000	$246	68
10723 Kingston Spring Dr	0.69mi	4/3.0	2,525 (+1%)	4mo	$449,000	$178	63
10723 Verdant Hl	0.75mi	4/3.0	2,524 (+1%)	1mo	$424,000	$168	62
10114 Native Grove Dr	0.26mi	4/3.0	2,122 (-15%)	1mo	$329,999	$156	62
10751 Kingston Spg	0.74mi	4/3.0	2,472 (-1%)	4mo	$424,000	$172	60
10606 Kingston Spring Dr	0.65mi	4/3.5	2,593 (+4%)	2mo	$447,000	$172	60
2527 Ormond Run	0.57mi	4/2.5	2,682 (+8%)	1mo	$399,800	$149	58
1610 Country Air Ln	0.72mi	4/3.0	2,388 (-4%)	4mo	$369,900	$155	56
2030 Edgemont Pl	0.61mi	3/3.5 (-1)	2,736 (+10%)	1mo	$435,000	$159	48
1506 Country Air Ln	0.65mi	4/3.5	2,808 (+12%)	7mo	$425,000	$151	41
9510 Spring Rose Dr	0.66mi	3/3.5 (-1)	2,831 (+13%)	2mo	$588,989	$208	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.67% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

IRR: -23.1%
Equity multiple: 0.11×
Total profit: $-115,914
Equity at exit: $97,562

10-year hold

IRR: -21.0%
Equity multiple: -0.42×
Total profit: $-185,033
Equity at exit: $90,366

Cash invested: $130,250 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
County: — inherits STATE
City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now: 179 active · 66 under contract
Months of supply: 16.3 mo (6%/mo absorbed)
Median asking: $498,850 ($192/sqft)
Median days on market: 126 d
This list price: 31% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking: -3.0% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77459

Home prices YoY: -0.8%
Rents YoY: -0.1%
Active inventory: 1771
Price-to-rent: 12.6×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent: $2,905 high interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I): −$2,439
Tax est. 1.5%: −$581 /mo · $6,978/yr
Insurance: −$194
HOA: −$0
Lot rent: −$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$610
Net cashflow: $-920

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,069

Max offer price $332,100

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-598	-5% $-759	+0% $-920	+5% $-1,080	+10% $-1,241
Rent	-10% $-1,149	-5% $-1,034	+0% $-920	+5% $-805	+10% $-690
Rate	-1.0pp $-685	-0.5pp $-801	base $-920	+0.5pp $-1,040	+1.0pp $-1,163

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment: $116,295
Closing costs: $13,955
Club membership (one-time): —
Reserves months: —
Total cash needed: —

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1714 Forest Mist Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	3.0	1979	$3,000	$1.52	139d	1	0.27mi
1414 Emma Lake Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.5	2337	$2,750	$1.18	74d	1	0.60mi
10614 Kingston Spring Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	3.0	2800	$3,499	$1.25	47d	1	0.63mi
1539 Rustling Creek Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	2.0	2812	$1,495	$0.53	24d	1	0.69mi
1523 Rustling Creek Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.5	1858	$2,500	$1.35	24d	1	0.71mi
1914 Misty Field Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	3.0	2051	$2,200	$1.07	10d	1	0.91mi
1618 Rosedale Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	3.5	2990	$3,400	$1.14	81d	1	0.96mi
8719 Fox Trail Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	3.5	2143	$6,000	$2.80	117d	1	0.97mi
2142 Ironwood Pass Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	3.0	2140	$6,000	$2.80	71d	1	1.02mi
8735 Morris Woods Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	1780	$2,000	$1.12	45d	1	1.32mi
10426 Caribou Cv Missouri City, TX	4.0	2.5	2488	$2,450	$0.98	24d	1	1.34mi
2918 Five Oaks Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	2.5	2476	$2,350	$0.95	74d	1	1.49mi

Property features AI

Finance

Financial info: List price $458,995

Exterior

Parking: 2 total parking spaces2-car garage
Home design: Plan: LavacaNew construction (Plan inventory)

Interior

Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
Interior features: Living area of 2,496

Listing history 50 events

2026-09-23

days on market $439,995 Active 139 DOM
2026-09-22

days on market $439,995 Active 138 DOM
2026-09-21

days on market $439,995 Active 137 DOM
2026-09-20

days on market $439,995 Active 136 DOM
2026-09-19

days on market $439,995 Active 135 DOM
2026-09-18

pricedays on market $439,995 Active 134 DOM
2026-09-17

days on market $449,995 Active 133 DOM
2026-09-16

days on market $449,995 Active 132 DOM
2026-09-15

days on market $449,995 Active 131 DOM
2026-09-14

days on market $449,995 Active 130 DOM
2026-09-13

days on market $449,995 Active 129 DOM
2026-09-12

days on market $449,995 Active 128 DOM
2026-09-11

days on market $449,995 Active 127 DOM
2026-09-05

days on market $449,995 Active 121 DOM
2026-09-04

days on market $449,995 Active 120 DOM
2026-08-31

days on market $449,995 Active 116 DOM
2026-08-30

days on market $449,995 Active 115 DOM
2026-08-29

days on market $449,995 Active 114 DOM
2026-08-28

days on market $449,995 Active 113 DOM
2026-08-27

days on market $449,995 Active 112 DOM
2026-08-25

days on market $449,995 Active 110 DOM
2026-08-24

days on market $449,995 Active 109 DOM
2026-08-23

days on market $449,995 Active 108 DOM
2026-08-22

days on market $449,995 Active 107 DOM
2026-08-21

days on market $449,995 Active 106 DOM
2026-08-20

price $449,995 Active 105 DOM
2026-08-20

days on market $458,995 Active 105 DOM
2026-08-19

days on market $458,995 Active 104 DOM
2026-08-18

days on market $458,995 Active 103 DOM
2026-08-17

days on market $458,995 Active 102 DOM
2026-08-16

days on market $458,995 Active 101 DOM
2026-08-15

days on market $458,995 Active 100 DOM
2026-08-14

days on market $458,995 Active 99 DOM
2026-08-13

days on market $458,995 Active 98 DOM
2026-08-12

days on market $458,995 Active 97 DOM
2026-08-11

days on market $458,995 Active 96 DOM
2026-08-10

days on market $458,995 Active 95 DOM
2026-08-09

days on market $458,995 Active 94 DOM
2026-08-08

days on market $458,995 Active 93 DOM
2026-08-06

days on market $458,995 Active 91 DOM
2026-08-05

days on market $458,995 Active 90 DOM
2026-08-04

days on market $458,995 Active 89 DOM
2026-08-03

days on market $458,995 Active 88 DOM
2026-07-31

days on market $458,995 Active 85 DOM
2026-07-30

days on market $458,995 Active 83 DOM
2026-07-28

days on market $458,995 Active 82 DOM
2026-07-26

days on market $458,995 Active 80 DOM
2026-07-24

days on market $458,995 Active 78 DOM
2026-07-23

days on market $458,995 Active 77 DOM
2026-07-22

days on market $458,995 Active 76 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X · 24% chance over 30 yrs
🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income: $34,862
− Mortgage interest: −$26,057
− Property taxes: −$6,978
− Insurance: −$2,326
− Repairs & maintenance: −$2,789
− Management: −$2,789
− Depreciation: −$13,532
Taxable loss: −$19,609

Your marginal tax rate % combined federal + state — saved on this device

Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,706
After-tax cash flow: $-6,330/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 11 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with a modern and well-maintained interior and exterior. It is move-in ready and has the potential for further value increases through minor updates.

Value-add opportunities

Both Painting the exterior brick facade — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
Both Adding smart home features — Improves convenience and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modernizes the kitchen and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
Both Adding a smart thermostat — Improves energy efficiency and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑

D Composite school gradezoned avg 56/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Alyssa Ferguson El Middle Ronald Thornton Middle D+ TX #462/1,662 Nat'l #4,433/14,009 High Ridge Point H S B TX #198/1,632 Nat'l #2,785/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District: Fort Bend ISD
NCES district ID: 4819650
Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -15.00%
Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
Median HH income: $82,360
Composite: 44.61/100
National rank: #2779
State rank: #140 of 826 in TX

Livability — Sienna

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

Census place: Sienna, TX
County: Fort Bend County · 1,004,526 people
Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
Population (ZIP): 84,221
Household income: $129,151
Rent vs Own: 14.8% rent · 85.2% own
Severe rent burden: 20% of renters

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.75)
Race & ethnicity: White 34% Black 26% Asian 22% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 10%
Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, China, Vietnam
Languages at home: 73% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 8% Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

Civics: —

Market trends

HPI YoY: ▼ -1.67%
Current HPI: 212.3573
Rent YoY: ▼ -0.15%
Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
Energy	16	$1,198B
#8 Exxon Mobil Spring $349.6B #16 Chevron Houston $202.8B #28 Phillips 66 Houston $145.5B #34 Valero Energy San Antonio $124.0B #53 Energy Transfer Dallas $82.7B #75 ConocoPhillips Houston $57.0B #78 Enterprise Products Partners Houston $56.2B #92 Plains GP Holdings Houston $50.1B #134 HF Sinclair Dallas $29.6B #142 Occidental Petroleum Houston $26.3B #173 Targa Resources Houston $19.4B #188 Cheniere Energy Houston $17.6B #239 Kinder Morgan Houston $15.3B #419 APA Corporation Houston $8.6B #393 Cabot Oil & Gas Houston $7.9B #455 Coterra Energy Houston $5.8B
Technology	5	$198B
#44 Dell Technologies Round Rock $95.6B #87 Oracle Austin $53.0B #132 Hewlett Packard Enterprise Spring $30.1B #193 Texas Instruments Dallas $16.3B #406 Match Group Dallas $3.4B
Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
#228 Quanta Services Houston $23.7B #258 Jacobs Solutions Dallas $16.3B #318 AECOM Dallas $16.1B #279 Fluor Irving $16.1B
Energy Services	3	$60B
#136 Baker Hughes Houston $28.5B #154 Halliburton Houston $23.1B #368 Smith International Houston $8.4B
Utilities	3	$41B
#194 Vistra Irving $16.3B #211 NRG Energy Houston $15.4B #259 CenterPoint Energy Houston $9.4B
Healthcare	2	$330B
#9 McKesson Irving $309.0B #163 Tenet Healthcare Dallas $20.6B

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

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