Lavaca Plan · Sienna, TX 77459

$439,995

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,496 sqft · SingleFamily · 185 Days on market

Excellent condition 2-car garage

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.6/30.0
• Schools +5.6/10.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Appreciation +4.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.1/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The Lavaca's welcoming porch and inviting foyer hallway with tray ceilings open onto the elegant formal dining room, offering views to the expansive great room and desirable covered patio. The well-appointed kitchen overlooks a bright casual dining area, and is complete with a large center island with breakfast bar, plenty of counter and cabinet space, and enormous walk-in pantry. The impressive primary bedroom suite is enhanced by a gorgeous cathedral ceiling, dual walk-in closets, and deluxe primary bath with dual-sink vanity, large soaking tub, luxe shower with seat, and private water closet. Secondary bedrooms feature sizable closets, one with private bath, two with shared hall bath.

Key facts

• Expansive great room
• Welcoming porch
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• WELCOMING PORCH
• INVITING FOYER HALLWAY
• ELEGANT FORMAL DINING ROOM
• EXPANSIVE GREAT ROOM
• DESIRABLE COVERED PATIO
• WELL-APPOINTED KITCHEN

🏗️ New construction. The $439,995 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $461,595.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $440k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-965 ($-12k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $322k (26.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $282k (36.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $282k (36.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 3.8% vs local median 2.8% in Sienna — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Fort Bend ISD (suburban): math 44% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #140 of 826 in TX (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Heritage Rose El (math 29% / reading 28%, grade F, #2,706 of 4,322 statewide, top 63%, 1,209 students, 83% FRL); Billy Baines Middle (math 47% / reading 53%, grade C, #347 of 1,662 statewide, top 21%, 1,296 students, 37% FRL); Ridge Point H S (math 61% / reading 69%, grade B, #198 of 1,632 statewide, top 12%, 3,170 students, 31% FRL) — zoned schools average 50% FRL vs 35% district-wide (15 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.1%/yr); 1941 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 70d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 71% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.7%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 185 days — a 12% lower offer ($387k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $281,671 (36.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 185 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 36% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.61% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.78%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.96%
• DSCR: 0.60
• GRM: 13.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $461,595
• List price: $439,995
• Delta: -4.68%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1550 Park Path Dr	0.48mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,510 (+1%)	1mo	$307,000	$122	69
9311 Crescent Mill Dr	0.51mi	4/3.0	2,577 (+3%)	4mo	$419,900	$163	67
2023 Pembrook Pl	0.47mi	4/3.0	2,640 (+6%)	2mo	$650,000	$246	67
9426 Orchard Trl	0.40mi	4/3.0	2,752 (+10%)	1mo	$516,888	$188	63
10723 Verdant Hl	0.75mi	4/3.0	2,524 (+1%)	2mo	$424,000	$168	61
10114 Native Grove Dr	0.26mi	4/3.0	2,122 (-15%)	3mo	$329,999	$156	60
10606 Kingston Spring Dr	0.65mi	4/3.5	2,593 (+4%)	3mo	$447,000	$172	58
2527 Ormond Run	0.57mi	4/2.5	2,682 (+8%)	2mo	$399,800	$149	57
1739 Waters Branch Dr	0.74mi	4/3.0	2,266 (-9%)	1mo	$385,000	$170	49
2030 Edgemont Pl	0.61mi	3/3.5 (-1)	2,736 (+10%)	3mo	$435,000	$159	46
2607 River Run Rd	0.63mi	4/3.5	2,853 (+14%)	1mo	$399,900	$140	44
9510 Spring Rose Dr	0.66mi	3/3.5 (-1)	2,831 (+13%)	3mo	$588,989	$208	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.67% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.09×
• Total profit: $-118,152
• Equity at exit: $96,810

10-year hold

• IRR: -21.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.47×
• Total profit: $-189,869
• Equity at exit: $89,669

Cash invested: $129,247 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 187 active · 79 under contract
• Months of supply: 15.6 mo (6%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $498,850 ($191/sqft)
• Median days on market: 156 d
• This list price: 33% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -3.1% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77459

• Home prices YoY: -0.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.1%
• Active inventory: 1941
• Price-to-rent: 13.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,817 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,421
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$577 /mo · $6,924/yr
• Insurance: −$192
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$592
• Net cashflow: $-965

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,038

Max offer price $321,990

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-646	-5% $-805	+0% $-965	+5% $-1,124	+10% $-1,284
Rent	-10% $-1,187	-5% $-1,076	+0% $-965	+5% $-854	+10% $-742
Rate	-1.0pp $-732	-0.5pp $-847	base $-965	+0.5pp $-1,084	+1.0pp $-1,206

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $115,399
• Closing costs: $13,848
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1714 Forest Mist Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	3.0	1979	$3,000	$1.52	184d	1	0.27mi
1414 Emma Lake Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.5	2337	$2,750	$1.18	119d	1	0.60mi
10614 Kingston Spring Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	3.0	2800	$3,499	$1.25	92d	1	0.63mi
1539 Rustling Creek Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	2.0	2812	$1,495	$0.53	69d	1	0.69mi
1539 Rustling Creek Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	2.0	2812	$1,495	$0.53	10d	1	0.69mi
1523 Rustling Creek Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.5	1858	$2,500	$1.35	69d	1	0.71mi
1914 Misty Field Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	3.0	2051	$2,200	$1.07	10d	1	0.91mi
1618 Rosedale Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	3.5	2990	$3,400	$1.14	127d	1	0.96mi
8719 Fox Trail Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	3.5	2143	$6,000	$2.80	163d	1	0.97mi
2142 Ironwood Pass Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	3.0	2140	$6,000	$2.80	116d	1	1.02mi
11030 Valley Fort Dr Unit Labs Missouri City, TX	4.0	3.0	2300	$3,120	$1.36	7d	1	1.18mi
3046 Antler Way Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	1936	$2,400	$1.24	45d	1	1.24mi
8735 Morris Woods Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	1780	$2,000	$1.12	10d	1	1.32mi
8735 Morris Woods Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	1780	$2,000	$1.12	90d	1	1.32mi
10426 Caribou Cv Missouri City, TX	4.0	2.5	2488	$2,450	$0.98	69d	1	1.34mi
2507 Manor Valley Ct Missouri City, TX	3.0	3.0	1870	$1,900	$1.02	10d	1	1.36mi
2918 Five Oaks Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	2.5	2476	$2,350	$0.95	119d	1	1.49mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $458,995

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces2-car garage
• Home design: Plan: LavacaNew construction (Plan inventory)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Living area of 2,496

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $439,995 Active 185 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $439,995 Active 184 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $439,995 Active 183 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $439,995 Active 182 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $439,995 Active 181 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $439,995 Active 179 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $439,995 Active 178 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $439,995 Active 177 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $439,995 Active 176 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $439,995 Active 175 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $439,995 Active 174 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $439,995 Active 173 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $439,995 Active 172 DOM
14. 2026-10-26
    days on market $439,995 Active 171 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $439,995 Active 170 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $439,995 Active 169 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $439,995 Active 168 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $439,995 Active 167 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $439,995 Active 166 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $439,995 Active 165 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $439,995 Active 164 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $439,995 Active 163 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $439,995 Active 162 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $439,995 Active 161 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $439,995 Active 160 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $439,995 Active 159 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $439,995 Active 158 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $439,995 Active 157 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $439,995 Active 156 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $439,995 Active 155 DOM
31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $439,995 Active 154 DOM
32. 2026-10-07
    days on market $439,995 Active 153 DOM
33. 2026-10-06
    days on market $439,995 Active 152 DOM
34. 2026-10-05
    days on market $439,995 Active 151 DOM
35. 2026-10-04
    days on market $439,995 Active 150 DOM
36. 2026-10-04
    days on market $439,995 Active 149 DOM
37. 2026-10-02
    days on market $439,995 Active 148 DOM
38. 2026-10-01
    days on market $439,995 Active 147 DOM
39. 2026-09-30
    days on market $439,995 Active 146 DOM
40. 2026-09-29
    days on market $439,995 Active 145 DOM
41. 2026-09-28
    days on market $439,995 Active 144 DOM
42. 2026-09-27
    days on market $439,995 Active 143 DOM
43. 2026-09-26
    days on market $439,995 Active 142 DOM
44. 2026-09-25
    days on market $439,995 Active 141 DOM
45. 2026-09-24
    days on market $439,995 Active 140 DOM
46. 2026-09-23
    days on market $439,995 Active 139 DOM
47. 2026-09-22
    days on market $439,995 Active 138 DOM
48. 2026-09-21
    days on market $439,995 Active 137 DOM
49. 2026-09-20
    days on market $439,995 Active 136 DOM
50. 2026-09-19
    days on market $439,995 Active 135 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,801
• − Mortgage interest: −$25,856
• − Property taxes: −$6,924
• − Insurance: −$2,308
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,704
• − Management: −$2,704
• − Depreciation: −$13,428
• Taxable loss: −$20,124
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,830
• After-tax cash flow: $-6,748/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 11 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with a modern and well-maintained interior and exterior. It is move-in ready and has the potential for further value increases through minor updates.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior brick facade — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Improves convenience and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modernizes the kitchen and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Adding a smart thermostat — Improves energy efficiency and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑

D Composite school gradezoned avg 56/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Alyssa Ferguson El Middle Ronald Thornton Middle D+ TX #462/1,662 Nat'l #4,433/14,009 High Ridge Point H S B TX #198/1,632 Nat'l #2,785/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fort Bend ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819650
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $82,360
• Composite: 44.61/100
• National rank: #2779
• State rank: #140 of 826 in TX

Livability — Sienna

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sienna, TX
• County: Fort Bend County · 1,004,526 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 84,221
• Household income: $129,151
• Rent vs Own: 14.8% rent · 85.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 20% of renters

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Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.75)
• Race & ethnicity: White 34% Black 26% Asian 22% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 8% Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 5%

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Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.67%
• Current HPI: 212.3573
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.15%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $458,995

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces2-car garage
• Home design: Plan: LavacaNew construction (Plan inventory)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Living area of 2,496