203 Wild Winds Dr · O'Fallon, MO 63368

$174,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 962 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 9 Days on market

Built 1972 7,130 sqft lot Est $264k · 34% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.7/10.0
• 1% rule +6.6/10.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Handyman special/sweat equity opportunity, priced well below market. Great starter home for someone looking to build instant equity and make it your own. Three bedroom, 1 bath ranch in great location, priced below market. Home has newer roof, windows and doors, privacy fence, and updated kitchen and bath. Home sold as-is. Buyer may obtain inspections for informational purposes. Broker-owned.

Key facts

• Newer roof
• Newer doors
• Privacy fence

Tags

• NEWER ROOF
• NEWER WINDOWS
• NEWER DOORS
• PRIVACY FENCE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Carport with space for 2 vehicles
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity (Ameren); Natural gas connected
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story
• Construction: Frame construction with vinyl siding
• Exterior features: Level lot

Interior

• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms, all on the main level
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Forced-air heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Fireplace with wood-burning stove and blower fan; Ceiling fans; Central air

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $433 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $175k).
• Cap rate 9.3% vs local median 3.2% in O'Fallon — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Ft. Zumwalt R-II (suburban): math 54% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #14 of 324 in MO (top 4%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Dardenne Elem. (math 47% / reading 52%, grade D, #284 of 1,115 statewide, top 30%, 412 students, 42% FRL); Ft. Zumwalt West High (math 64% / reading 72%, grade B, #13 of 521 statewide, top 2%, 1,778 students, 17% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 376 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 2,021 units permitted in St. Charles County in 2024 (568 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Charles County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $174,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.16% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.27%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.62%
• DSCR: 1.47
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $263,588
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2416 Merribrook Ln	0.19mi	3/1.5	1,040 (+8%)	11mo	$244,900	$235	66
301 Wild Winds Dr	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,046 (+9%)	15mo	$250,000	$239	66
2006 Winter Hill Dr	0.32mi	3/1.5	1,020 (+6%)	11mo	$259,900	$255	64
1908 Winter Hill Dr	0.49mi	3/2.0	948 (-2%)	11mo	$260,000	$274	61
1903 Autumn Hill Dr	0.50mi	3/1.5	1,020 (+6%)	11mo	$244,900	$240	56
1904 Pebble Brook Dr	0.47mi	3/1.5	900 (-6%)	16mo	$249,000	$277	52
2325 Sundance Dr	0.50mi	2/1.0 (-1)	832 (-14%)	3mo	$189,900	$228	47
206 Cherrywood Parc Dr	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,064 (+11%)	1mo	$299,999	$282	43
279 Cherrywood Parc Dr	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,092 (+14%)	1mo	$300,000	$275	42
617 Sundance Dr	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,078 (+12%)	4mo	$279,900	$260	40
2406 Amarillo Dr	0.54mi	2/1.5 (-1)	832 (-14%)	6mo	$245,000	$294	40
27 Laura Dr	0.63mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,092 (+14%)	5mo	$325,000	$298	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.59% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.93×
• Total profit: $-3,569
• Equity at exit: $26,078

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.43×
• Total profit: $21,131
• Equity at exit: $15,122

Cash invested: $48,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63368

• Home prices YoY: -20.7%
• Rents YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 376
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,033 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$917
• Tax from tax record: −$182 /mo · $2,188/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$427
• Net cashflow: $433

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,484

Max offer price $174,900

Occupancy floor 74%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $532	-5% $483	+0% $433	+5% $384	+10% $334
Rent	-10% $273	-5% $353	+0% $433	+5% $514	+10% $594
Rate	-1.0pp $522	-0.5pp $478	base $433	+0.5pp $388	+1.0pp $342

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,725
• Closing costs: $5,247
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
25 Joan Dr Saint Peters, MO	2.0	1.0	950	$1,700	$1.79	26d	1	0.66mi
43 Kingspointe Dr Saint Peters, MO	3.0	2.0	1072	$2,125	$1.98	26d	1	1.33mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-21
   statusdays on market $174,900 Pending 9 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $174,900 Active 8 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $174,900 Active 7 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $174,900 Active 6 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   remarks 394-char remark
6. 2026-06-15
   remarks 359-char remark
7. 2026-06-15
   price $174,900 Active 5 DOM
8. 2026-06-15
   days on market $189,900 Active 5 DOM
9. 2026-06-13
   remarks 257-char remark
10. 2026-06-13
    listed $189,900 Active 3 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,188 · $182/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,188 · $182/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,392
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,797
• − Property taxes: −$2,188
• − Insurance: −$874
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,951
• − Management: −$1,951
• − Depreciation: −$5,088
• Taxable income: $2,542
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$610
• After-tax cash flow: $4,591/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ft. Zumwalt R-II
• NCES district ID: 2908370
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $75,817
• Composite: 51.04/100
• National rank: #1772
• State rank: #14 of 324 in MO

Livability — O'Fallon

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Saint Charles County · 399,703 people
• City population: 45,862
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 46,966
• Household income: $124,297
• Rent vs Own: 18.0% rent · 82.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 538.0

Population outlook (St. Charles County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 437,857 people
• By 2030: 461,707 · +5.4%
• By 2040: 503,222 · +14.9%
• By 2050: 534,684 · +22.1%
• By 2075: 597,047 · +36.4%
• By 2100: 609,682 · +39.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Asian 5% Two or more races 5% Black 4% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 2% Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Charles

• 2024 margin: R (+17.0) · D 40.8% · R 57.8% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.2pp toward R · 2008: -9.7pp · 2024: -17.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+17.0 2020: R+17.5 2016: R+26.4 2012: R+21.0 2008: R+9.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -57.32%
• Current HPI: 219.7731
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Listed $189,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-06-11 Coming Soon $189,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1987-03-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,188 · +7.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.