1537 Bay St · Saginaw, MI 48602

$99,000

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,290 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 325 Days on market

Built 1884 0.45 ac lot Est $90k · 10% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.5/30.0
• DSCR +9.7/10.0
• 1% rule +7.6/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• ARV discount +3.2/15.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Landlords/Investors, enjoy the guaranteed rental payments with this Section 8 rental property. This 4-bedroom property has undergone many recent updates. Section 8 pays $1290 directly to the owner. Do Not Disturb tenants! Serious buyers only!

Key facts

• 0.45 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1884

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage (about 1.5 car capacity)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; Two levels; Ground-level entry with steps
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Block foundation
• Exterior features: Paved road access; Lot approximately 0.45 acres (66 x 297)

Interior

• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); No central cooling
• Interior features: Unfinished basement; Six total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $99k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $294 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $99k).
• Recommended offer: $87k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#521 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Saginaw School District (urban): math 20% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #444 of 540 in MI (top 82%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 76% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+4.0%/yr); 250 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 154 units permitted in Saginaw County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($47k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $684 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Saginaw County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 325 days — a 12% lower offer ($87k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $75k; 32% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1884 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $87,120 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 325 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1884 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.26% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.85%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.72%
• DSCR: 1.57
• GRM: 6.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $90,300
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2844 Schemm St	0.22mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,336 (+4%)	3mo	$40,000	$30	76
1610 Cleveland St	0.37mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,279 (-1%)	4mo	$45,000	$35	73
1407 Bay St	0.12mi	4/1.5	1,464 (+14%)	2mo	$142,900	$98	68
251 Trier St	0.44mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,262 (-2%)	2mo	$147,000	$116	67
2408 State St	0.50mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,362 (+6%)	1mo	$40,000	$29	62
1819 Delaware St	0.67mi	4/1.0	1,334 (+3%)	3mo	$93,000	$70	61
1016 Thurman St	0.65mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,230 (-5%)	3mo	$69,900	$57	54
1920 W Genesee St	0.60mi	4/2.0	1,391 (+8%)	3mo	$53,500	$38	53
278 Wylie St	0.49mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,411 (+9%)	4mo	$148,000	$105	51
250 Goetz St	0.45mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,120 (-13%)	4mo	$79,900	$71	49
266 Lockwood St	0.47mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,436 (+11%)	3mo	$150,000	$104	48
1724 State St	0.74mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,144 (-11%)	2mo	$75,000	$66	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.98% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.14×
• Total profit: $3,927
• Equity at exit: $14,761

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.18×
• Total profit: $32,788
• Equity at exit: $8,560

Cash invested: $27,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48602

• Home prices YoY: -19.7%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 250
• Price-to-rent: 6.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,245 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$519
• Tax from tax record: −$129 /mo · $1,553/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$261
• Net cashflow: $294

Break-even live

Break-even rent $873

Max offer price $99,000

Occupancy floor 71%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $350	-5% $322	+0% $294	+5% $266	+10% $238
Rent	-10% $195	-5% $245	+0% $294	+5% $343	+10% $392
Rate	-1.0pp $344	-0.5pp $319	base $294	+0.5pp $268	+1.0pp $242

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,750
• Closing costs: $2,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4156 Ann St Saginaw, MI	4.0	1.5	1387	$1,225	$0.88	44d	1	1.31mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $99,000 Active 325 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,000 Active 324 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $99,000 Active 323 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $99,000 Active 322 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,000 Active 321 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $99,000 Active 319 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $99,000 Active 318 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $99,000 Active 315 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $99,000 Active 314 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $99,000 Active 313 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $99,000 Active 310 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $99,000 Active 309 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $99,000 Active 308 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $99,000 Active 307 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $99,000 Active 306 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $99,000 Active 305 DOM
17. 2025-07-29
    listed $99,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (242 chars)

    Landlords/Investors, enjoy the guaranteed rental payments with this Section 8 rental property. This 4-bedroom property has undergone many recent updates. Section 8 pays $1290 directly to the owner. Do Not Disturb tenants! Serious buyers only!

18. 2025-07-29
    listed $99,000 Active 242-char remark

    Show marketing remark (242 chars)

    Landlords/Investors, enjoy the guaranteed rental payments with this Section 8 rental property. This 4-bedroom property has undergone many recent updates. Section 8 pays $1290 directly to the owner. Do Not Disturb tenants! Serious buyers only!

19. 2021-09-13
    soldstatus $75,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,553 · $129/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,553 · $129/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,941
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,546
• − Property taxes: −$1,553
• − Insurance: −$495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,195
• − Management: −$1,195
• − Depreciation: −$2,880
• Taxable income: $2,076
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$498
• After-tax cash flow: $3,026/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Saginaw School District
• NCES district ID: 2630390
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $28,940
• Composite: 19.6/100
• National rank: #8755
• State rank: #444 of 540 in MI

Livability — Saginaw

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #521
• US rank: #15424

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Saginaw, MI
• County: Saginaw County · 54,884 people
• City population: 54,884
• Metro: Saginaw, MI
• Population (ZIP): 27,127
• Household income: $46,984
• Rent vs Own: 35.8% rent · 64.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1416.0

Population outlook (Saginaw County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 180,568 people
• By 2030: 172,302 · -4.6%
• By 2040: 153,919 · -14.8%
• By 2050: 135,519 · -24.9%
• By 2075: 97,199 · -46.2%
• By 2100: 65,037 · -64.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: White 50% Black 27% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 12%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Saginaw

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.0% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.6pp toward R · 2008: 17.3pp · 2024: -3.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.3 2020: D+0.3 2016: R+1.1 2012: D+11.9 2008: D+17.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -39.15%
• Current HPI: 159.8807
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.98%
• Metro: Saginaw, MI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+32.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2025-07-29 Listed $99,000 REALCOMP
• 2025-07-29 Listed $99,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2021-09-13 Sold (Public Records) $75,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,553 · -16.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.