320 Lucy Ln Ln · Horseshoe Bay, TX 78657

$499,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,331 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 58 Days on market

Built 1982 0.25 ac lot $214/sqft · 43% below area Est $882k · 43% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +6.4/30.0
• Appreciation +5.5/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.4/10.0
• DSCR +0.7/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Well-maintained home on a beautiful, quiet street near Lake LBJ in the heart of Horseshoe Bay Resort. Located just one hour from Austin and the airport, this 3-bedroom, 4-bath residence with a 2-car garage offers comfort, convenience, and an inviting lifestyle. The nicely updated kitchen features granite countertops and opens to the living areas, creating a great space for everyday living and entertaining. Enjoy pleasant views and a peaceful setting throughout the property. The primary suite has two ensuite bathrooms and large walk-in closet. Horseshoe Bay Resort offers exceptional amenities for members, including four championship golf courses, a marina, private airport, spa, and fitness center. Residents also enjoy community events at the clubhouse, picnic grounds, walking trails, pickleball, and a variety of water activities. Experience relaxed Hill Country living with resort-style amenities just minutes from your door.

Key facts

• Lake lbj
• Updated kitchen
• Large walk-in closet

Tags

• LAKE LBJ
• UPDATED KITCHEN
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• TWO ENSUITE BATHROOMS
• LARGE WALK-IN CLOSET
• FOUR CHAMPIONSHIP GOLF COURSES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $499k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-859 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $347k (30.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $320k (35.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $320k (35.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.2% vs local median 1.0% in Horseshoe Bay — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#625 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A-, housing A-; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Marble Falls ISD (town): math 32% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #511 of 826 in TX (top 62%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 1223 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 64% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 891 units permitted in Burnet County in 2024 (76 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($91k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $5k appreciation (0.9% local appreciation)).
• Burnet County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 58 days — a 3% lower offer ($484k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 15y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 60% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $319,867 (35.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 58 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 36% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.64% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.23%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.38%
• DSCR: 0.67
• GRM: 13.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $881,612
• List price: $499,000
• Delta: -43.40%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
402 Horseshoe Bay North Blvd	0.07mi	3/3.5	2,513 (+8%)	2mo	$1,645,000	$655	80
711 Twin Sails	0.64mi	3/3.5	2,473 (+6%)	10mo	$699,000	$283	50
900 Sharp Rock	0.73mi	3/3.5	2,594 (+11%)	2mo	$550,000	$212	43
450 Fire Dance	0.71mi	3/3.0	2,128 (-9%)	15mo	$595,000	$280	40
304 Crestview	0.45mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,120 (-9%)	21mo	$563,990	$266	40
306 Fire Dance	0.68mi	3/3.5	2,018 (-13%)	9mo	$1,125,000	$557	37
103 Hi Ridge Rd	0.58mi	3/3.0	2,671 (+15%)	23mo	$874,999	$328	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.95% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.67×
• Total profit: $-46,696
• Equity at exit: $168,932

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.86×
• Total profit: $-18,994
• Equity at exit: $223,404

Cash invested: $139,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78657

• Home prices YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 1223
• Price-to-rent: 13.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,199 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,617
• Tax from tax record: −$561 /mo · $6,733/yr
• Insurance: −$208
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$672
• Net cashflow: $-859

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,286

Max offer price $347,271

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-576	-5% $-718	+0% $-859	+5% $-1,000	+10% $-1,141
Rent	-10% $-1,112	-5% $-985	+0% $-859	+5% $-733	+10% $-606
Rate	-1.0pp $-608	-0.5pp $-732	base $-859	+0.5pp $-988	+1.0pp $-1,120

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $124,750
• Closing costs: $14,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
415 Horseshoe Bay North Blvd Unit 1 Horseshoe Bay, TX	4.0	4.5	2375	$3,500	$1.47	44d	1	0.13mi
403 Island Dr Horseshoe Bay, TX	3.0	3.0	1875	$4,300	$2.29	44d	1	0.50mi
305 Fire Dance Horseshoe Bay, TX	4.0	3.0	2416	$3,800	$1.57	44d	1	0.70mi
306 Out Yonder #154 Horseshoe Bay, TX	2.0	2.0	1900	$1,550	$0.82	24d	1	0.85mi
402 Hi Stirrup Horseshoe Bay, TX	3.0	3.0	2038	$2,200	$1.08	44d	1	0.90mi
106 Cross Bow Horseshoe Bay, TX	3.0	3.0	1764	$2,900	$1.64	44d	1	0.97mi
512 Side Saddle Horseshoe Bay, TX	4.0	3.0	1850	$2,700	$1.46	44d	1	0.99mi
820 Broken Arrow Horseshoe Bay, TX	4.0	3.5	3328	$4,590	$1.38	44d	1	1.00mi
717 Indian Paint Blvd Horseshoe Bay, TX	3.0	3.5	2742	$3,650	$1.33	24d	1	1.09mi
533 Lighthouse Dr Horseshoe Bay, TX	3.0	3.0	2500	$5,000	$2.00	13d	1	1.15mi
1314 Clayton Nolen Dr Horseshoe Bay, TX	3.0	2.0	1885	$2,850	$1.51	24d	1	1.16mi
1406 Prospect Horseshoe Bay, TX	3.0	2.0	1998	$2,700	$1.35	4d	1	1.21mi
202 Lighthouse Dr Horseshoe Bay, TX	3.0	2.0	1993	$3,000	$1.51	44d	1	1.38mi
102 Prairie Horseshoe Bay, TX	3.0	2.0	2154	$2,700	$1.25	44d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $499,000 Active 58 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $499,000 Active 57 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $499,000 Active 56 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $499,000 Active 55 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $499,000 Active 53 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $499,000 Active 52 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $499,000 Active 49 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $499,000 Active 48 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $499,000 Active 47 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $499,000 Active 44 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $499,000 Active 43 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $499,000 Active 42 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $499,000 Active 41 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $499,000 Active 40 DOM
15. 2026-04-17
    listed $499,000 Active 936-char remark

    Show marketing remark (936 chars)

    Well-maintained home on a beautiful, quiet street near Lake LBJ in the heart of Horseshoe Bay Resort. Located just one hour from Austin and the airport, this 3-bedroom, 4-bath residence with a 2-car garage offers comfort, convenience, and an inviting lifestyle. The nicely updated kitchen features granite countertops and opens to the living areas, creating a great space for everyday living and entertaining. Enjoy pleasant views and a peaceful setting throughout the property. The primary suite has two ensuite bathrooms and large walk-in closet. Horseshoe Bay Resort offers exceptional amenities for members, including four championship golf courses, a marina, private airport, spa, and fitness center. Residents also enjoy community events at the clubhouse, picnic grounds, walking trails, pickleball, and a variety of water activities. Experience relaxed Hill Country living with resort-style amenities just minutes from your door.

16. 2012-03-06
    soldstatus 548-char remark

    Show marketing remark (548 chars)

    HUGE PRICE REDUCTION now in "Investment" realm!!! Owner will consider Owner Finance and 1031 exchange! REMODELED Split Level home features fantastic views from lower or upper level to Lake LBJ and vacant land behind property! Large Kitchen with slate counters, SPACE, Storage/Cabinets, opens to larg Family Room and stone Fireplace! Master Suite with his/her bathrooms!, 2 bed/2 bath down with Utility room and 2nd Living Area. 2 Covered patio/deck! Owner will consider 1031 exchange and Owner Financing!FEMA - Unknown Restrictions: Yes

17. 2012-02-01
    historical 548-char remark

    Show marketing remark (548 chars)

    HUGE PRICE REDUCTION now in "Investment" realm!!! Owner will consider Owner Finance and 1031 exchange! REMODELED Split Level home features fantastic views from lower or upper level to Lake LBJ and vacant land behind property! Large Kitchen with slate counters, SPACE, Storage/Cabinets, opens to larg Family Room and stone Fireplace! Master Suite with his/her bathrooms!, 2 bed/2 bath down with Utility room and 2nd Living Area. 2 Covered patio/deck! Owner will consider 1031 exchange and Owner Financing!FEMA - Unknown Restrictions: Yes

18. 2011-11-14
    listed $174,900 548-char remark

    Show marketing remark (548 chars)

    HUGE PRICE REDUCTION now in "Investment" realm!!! Owner will consider Owner Finance and 1031 exchange! REMODELED Split Level home features fantastic views from lower or upper level to Lake LBJ and vacant land behind property! Large Kitchen with slate counters, SPACE, Storage/Cabinets, opens to larg Family Room and stone Fireplace! Master Suite with his/her bathrooms!, 2 bed/2 bath down with Utility room and 2nd Living Area. 2 Covered patio/deck! Owner will consider 1031 exchange and Owner Financing!FEMA - Unknown Restrictions: Yes

19. 2011-10-31
    historical
20. 2011-03-17
    listed
21. 2009-01-29
    soldstatus
22. 1986-07-01
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,733 · $561/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $9,132 · $761/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,398/yr (+$200/mo · 35.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 60% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $38,384
• − Mortgage interest: −$27,952
• − Property taxes: −$6,733
• − Insurance: −$2,495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,071
• − Management: −$3,071
• − Depreciation: −$14,516
• Taxable loss: −$19,454
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,669
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,638/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marble Falls ISD
• NCES district ID: 4829010
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $49,663
• Composite: 30.3/100
• National rank: #6278
• State rank: #511 of 826 in TX

Livability — Horseshoe Bay

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #625
• US rank: #11913

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A- Health & safety B- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Horseshoe Bay, TX
• County: Llano County · 16,310 people
• City population: 7,591
• Metro: nan
• Population (ZIP): 7,591
• Household income: $91,452
• Rent vs Own: 18.7% rent · 81.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 45.0

Population outlook (Burnet County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 50,492 people
• By 2030: 52,995 · +5.0%
• By 2040: 57,528 · +13.9%
• By 2050: 61,444 · +21.7%
• By 2075: 71,098 · +40.8%
• By 2100: 74,634 · +47.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 8% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Portuguese 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Burnet

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+55.7) · D 21.7% · R 77.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.6pp toward R · 2008: -44.1pp · 2024: -55.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+55.7 2020: R+53.1 2016: R+56.8 2012: R+54.6 2008: R+44.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.95%
• Current HPI: 229.9918
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: nan
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+185.3% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-17 Listed $499,000 HLMLS as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2012-03-06 Sold (MLS) — Unlock MLS
• 2012-02-01 Delisted — Unlock MLS
• 2011-11-14 Listed $174,900 Unlock MLS
• 2011-10-31 Delisted — Unlock MLS
• 2011-03-17 Listed — Unlock MLS
• 2009-01-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1986-07-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+5.9%/yr

Latest (2026): $6,733 · +10.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.