309 Willow Grove Rd · Stony Point, NY 10980

$499,000

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,403 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 54 Days on market

Built 1783 0.81 ac lot $356/sqft · 12% below area Est $850k · 41% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +5.6/30.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.3/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 309 Willow Grove Rd. Located in the highly sought-after Stony Point neighborhood, this Cape Cod home offers great potential for investors or for you to make it your own home. With 5 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and spacious living areas, it provides ample space for rental income. The large outdoor area offers flexibility for various uses, adding significant value. This property is ideally positioned in a growing market with strong demand, making it a solid investment for immediate returns or long-term appreciation. Don’t miss this opportunity; schedule a viewing today.

Key facts

• Large outdoor area
• 0.81 acre lot
• Built 1783

Tags

• LARGE OUTDOOR AREA

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $499k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-12k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $316k (36.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $315k (36.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $315k (36.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 3.8% vs local median 2.6% in Stony Point — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#450 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Haverstraw-Stony Point CSD (North Rockland) (suburban): math 41% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #427 of 590 in NY (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Thiells Elementary School (math 37% / reading 52%, grade F, #1,277 of 2,108 statewide, top 64%, 645 students, 18% FRL); Fieldstone Middle School (math 18% / reading 46%, grade F, #511 of 729 statewide, top 71%, 1,247 students, 0% FRL); North Rockland High School (math 86% / reading 67%, grade A-, #612 of 1,100 statewide, top 56%, 2,687 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 6% FRL vs 40% district-wide (34 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 91 active listings in the ZIP; 429 units permitted in Rockland County in 2024 (231 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $15k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Rockland County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 54 days — a 3% lower offer ($484k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $270k; list at $499k implies a 85% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1783 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $314,738 (36.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 54 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 37% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1783 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.63% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.81%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.88%
• DSCR: 0.60
• GRM: 13.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $849,802
• List price: $499,000
• Delta: -41.28%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -32.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.05×
• Total profit: $-146,651
• Equity at exit: $74,403

10-year hold

• IRR: -36.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.52×
• Total profit: $-212,162
• Equity at exit: $43,144

Cash invested: $139,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 10980

• Active inventory: 91
• Price-to-rent: 13.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,147 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,617
• Tax from tax record: −$696 /mo · $8,354/yr
• Insurance: −$208
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$661
• Net cashflow: $-1,034

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,457

Max offer price $316,264

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-752	-5% $-893	+0% $-1,034	+5% $-1,176	+10% $-1,317
Rent	-10% $-1,283	-5% $-1,159	+0% $-1,034	+5% $-910	+10% $-786
Rate	-1.0pp $-783	-0.5pp $-908	base $-1,034	+0.5pp $-1,164	+1.0pp $-1,295

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $124,750
• Closing costs: $14,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-04-12
   status Active 586-char remark

   Show marketing remark (586 chars)

   Welcome to 309 Willow Grove Rd. Located in the highly sought-after Stony Point neighborhood, this Cape Cod home offers great potential for investors or for you to make it your own home. With 5 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and spacious living areas, it provides ample space for rental income. The large outdoor area offers flexibility for various uses, adding significant value. This property is ideally positioned in a growing market with strong demand, making it a solid investment for immediate returns or long-term appreciation. Don’t miss this opportunity; schedule a viewing today.

2. 2026-03-13
   listed $499,000 Active 586-char remark

   Show marketing remark (586 chars)

   Welcome to 309 Willow Grove Rd. Located in the highly sought-after Stony Point neighborhood, this Cape Cod home offers great potential for investors or for you to make it your own home. With 5 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and spacious living areas, it provides ample space for rental income. The large outdoor area offers flexibility for various uses, adding significant value. This property is ideally positioned in a growing market with strong demand, making it a solid investment for immediate returns or long-term appreciation. Don’t miss this opportunity; schedule a viewing today.

3. 2025-03-01
   historical
4. 2024-11-26
   listed $599,000 Active
5. 2023-08-23
   soldstatus $270,000
6. 2023-03-22
   soldstatus $200,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $8,354 · $696/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,393 · $699/mo
• Expected delta: +$40/yr (+$3/mo · 0.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 23% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $37,769
• − Mortgage interest: −$27,952
• − Property taxes: −$8,354
• − Insurance: −$2,495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,021
• − Management: −$3,021
• − Depreciation: −$14,516
• Taxable loss: −$21,591
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,182
• After-tax cash flow: $-7,231/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Haverstraw-Stony Point CSD (North Rockland)
• NCES district ID: 3614010
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $80,218
• Composite: 40.68/100
• National rank: #3672
• State rank: #427 of 590 in NY

Livability — Stony Point

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #450
• US rank: #7882

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime B Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Stony Point, NY
• Population (ZIP): 13,793

Population outlook (Rockland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 339,642 people
• By 2030: 345,987 · +1.9%
• By 2040: 357,178 · +5.2%
• By 2050: 362,456 · +6.7%
• By 2075: 367,281 · +8.1%
• By 2100: 328,211 · -3.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Hispanic / Latino 22% Black 12% Two or more races 10% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 9% Dominican 8%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Hispanic 3% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 12% French/Haitian/Cajun 3% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Rockland

• 2024 margin: R (+11.8) · D 44.1% · R 55.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.7pp toward R · 2008: 5.9pp · 2024: -11.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.8 2020: D+1.7 2016: D+5.1 2012: D+6.6 2008: D+5.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -459.52%
• Current HPI: 243.4467
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+149.5% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-12 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-13 Listed $499,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-01 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-11-26 Listed $599,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-08-23 Sold (Public Records) $270,000 Public Records
• 2023-03-22 Sold (Public Records) $200,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $8,354 · -6.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.