6217 Jeffrey Dr · Louisville/Jefferson County metro government (balance), KY 40258

$174,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,000 sqft · SingleFamily · 98 Days on market

Built 1981 0.25 ac lot Est $205k · 15% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.2/30.0
• ARV discount +14.1/15.0
• DSCR +4.7/10.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Lots of Updates in 2015 including the Roof, Windows, Kitchen Cabinets & Flooring, Carpet & a Nice Large Deck. Storage Shed in Backyard can remain. Seller providing a One Year First American Home Warranty. Need 24 hour notice to show, property is currently has renters.

Key facts

• Great deck
• Large backyard
• Eat in kitchen

Tags

• LARGE BACKYARD
• GREAT DECK
• EAT IN KITCHEN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $61 ($737/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $147k (16.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $147k (16.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 4.0% in Louisville/Jefferson County metro government (balance) — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Jefferson County (urban): math 19% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #121 of 165 in KY (top 73%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 122 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,836 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (1,558 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jefferson County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 98 days — a 9% lower offer ($159k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 25y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $14k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $112k; list at $175k implies a 56% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $146,583 (16.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 98 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.71%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.51%
• DSCR: 1.07
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $205,000
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6103 Mayna Rd	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,080 (+8%)	6mo	$220,000	$204	66
6513 Alamo Ct	0.57mi	3/1.0	1,055 (+6%)	2mo	$205,000	$194	63
6617 Hunters Creek Blvd	0.43mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,001 (+0%)	10mo	$205,000	$205	62
5312 Mount Blanc Rd	0.70mi	3/1.0	1,000 (0%)	8mo	$228,000	$228	60
6507 Don Bon Ct	0.55mi	3/1.0	1,050 (+5%)	7mo	$210,000	$200	60
6508 Jennifer Valley Way	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,040 (+4%)	3mo	$210,500	$202	60
6504 Jennifer Valley Way	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,040 (+4%)	4mo	$206,000	$198	60
3215 Lemmah Dr	0.68mi	3/1.0	990 (-1%)	9mo	$190,000	$192	59
6647 Sylvania Rd	0.51mi	3/1.0	924 (-8%)	6mo	$197,000	$213	59
6715 Memory Ln	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,061 (+6%)	3mo	$219,999	$207	54
6005 Cole Ave	0.21mi	2/1.0 (-1)	851 (-15%)	9mo	$175,000	$206	53
6814 Memory Ln	0.73mi	3/1.0	936 (-6%)	10mo	$200,000	$214	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.5% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-28,072
• Equity at exit: $26,078

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-33,637
• Equity at exit: $15,122

Cash invested: $48,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 40258

• Rents YoY: 0.5%
• Active inventory: 122
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,466 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$917
• Tax from tax record: −$106 /mo · $1,278/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$308
• Net cashflow: $61

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,388

Max offer price $174,900

Occupancy floor 91%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,725
• Closing costs: $5,247
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 19 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6004 Noah Dr Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1130	$1,650	$1.46	17d	1	0.16mi
6712 Stana Dr Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	984	$1,375	$1.40	14d	1	0.36mi
6311 Hackel Dr Louisville, KY	3.0	1.5	1248	$1,735	$1.39	1d	1	0.36mi
6711 Hunters Creek Blvd Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,349	$1.35	10d	1	0.42mi
6424 Hackel Dr Unit 12 Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	850	$1,100	$1.29	23d	1	0.50mi
6508 Hackel Dr Unit 5 Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	825	$800	$0.97	19d	1	0.59mi
6512 Hackel Dr Unit 2 Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	825	$850	$1.03	23d	1	0.61mi
5629 Fox Horn Cir Louisville, KY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1092	$1,145	$1.05	1d	8	0.62mi
6516 Hackel Dr Apt 6 Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	900	$1,100	$1.22	3d	1	0.63mi
7210 Strive Ln Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	975	$1,495	$1.53	14d	1	0.84mi
7414 Terry Rd Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1046	$1,635	$1.56	2d	1	1.10mi
5010 Kaufman Ln Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0–2.0	1076	$1,402	$1.30	1d	3	1.20mi
3219 Wilkie Rd Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	725	$1,350	$1.86	10d	1	1.23mi
7817 Moss Creek Dr Louisville, KY	2.0	2.0	1053	$1,259	$1.20	1d	14	1.31mi
4810 Guy Dr Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	925	$1,800	$1.95	23d	1	1.35mi
4902 Saddlebrook Ln Unit 3 Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	800	$899	$1.12	23d	1	1.37mi
4911 Saddlebrook Ln Apt 3 Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	800	$949	$1.19	23d	1	1.42mi
4904 Saddlebrook Ln Unit 4 Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	725	$765	$1.06	23d	1	1.43mi
6701 Barfield Rd Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	900	$1,560	$1.73	23d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-02-16
   status Pending
2. 2025-12-09
   price $174,900
3. 2025-12-03
   price $179,900
4. 2025-11-10
   listed $189,000 Active
5. 2024-12-10
   historical
6. 2024-08-30
   listed $169,900 Active
7. 2021-07-28
   soldstatus $112,000
8. 2018-05-11
   soldstatus $97,500
9. 2018-05-09
   soldstatus $97,500 Closed 276-char remark

   Show marketing remark (276 chars)

   Lots of Updates in 2015 including the Roof, Windows, Kitchen Cabinets & Flooring, Carpet & a Nice Large Deck. Storage Shed in Backyard can remain. Seller providing a One Year First American Home Warranty. Need 24 hour notice to show, property is currently has renters.

10. 2018-03-08
    status Pending 276-char remark

    Show marketing remark (276 chars)

    Lots of Updates in 2015 including the Roof, Windows, Kitchen Cabinets & Flooring, Carpet & a Nice Large Deck. Storage Shed in Backyard can remain. Seller providing a One Year First American Home Warranty. Need 24 hour notice to show, property is currently has renters.

11. 2018-03-06
    listed $99,500 Active 276-char remark

    Show marketing remark (276 chars)

    Lots of Updates in 2015 including the Roof, Windows, Kitchen Cabinets & Flooring, Carpet & a Nice Large Deck. Storage Shed in Backyard can remain. Seller providing a One Year First American Home Warranty. Need 24 hour notice to show, property is currently has renters.

12. 2001-11-09
    historical
13. 2001-09-21
    listed $78,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,278 · $106/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,504 · $125/mo
• Expected delta: +$226/yr (+$19/mo · 17.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,590
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,797
• − Property taxes: −$1,278
• − Insurance: −$874
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,407
• − Management: −$1,407
• − Depreciation: −$5,088
• Taxable loss: −$2,262
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$543
• After-tax cash flow: $1,280/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jefferson County
• NCES district ID: 2102990
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $47,885
• Composite: 23.45/100
• National rank: #7884
• State rank: #121 of 165 in KY

Livability — Louisville/Jefferson County metro government (balance)

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Louisville/Jefferson County metro government (balance), KY
• County: Jefferson County · 790,184 people
• City population: 419,741
• Metro: Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN
• Population (ZIP): 26,841
• Household income: $68,162
• Rent vs Own: 26.1% rent · 73.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 839.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 823,112 people
• By 2030: 849,343 · +3.2%
• By 2040: 895,696 · +8.8%
• By 2050: 933,630 · +13.4%
• By 2075: 1,028,262 · +24.9%
• By 2100: 1,072,675 · +30.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Black 22% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 2% Italian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: D (+16.6) · D 57.4% · R 40.9% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.5pp toward D · 2008: 12.0pp · 2024: 16.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.6 2020: D+20.1 2016: D+13.3 2012: D+11.1 2008: D+12.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -296.36%
• Current HPI: 244.6667
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.50%
• Metro: Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+122.8% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-16 Pending — Metro Search MLS
• 2025-12-09 Price Changed $174,900 Metro Search MLS
• 2025-12-03 Price Changed $179,900 Metro Search MLS
• 2025-11-10 Listed $189,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2024-12-10 Listing Removed — Metro Search MLS
• 2024-08-30 Listed $169,900 Metro Search MLS
• 2021-07-28 Sold (Public Records) $112,000 Public Records
• 2018-05-11 Sold (Public Records) $97,500 Public Records
• 2018-05-09 Sold (MLS) $97,500 Metro Search MLS
• 2018-03-08 Pending — Metro Search MLS
• 2018-03-06 Listed $99,500 Metro Search MLS
• 2001-11-09 Listing Removed — Metro Search MLS
• 2001-09-21 Listed $78,500 Metro Search MLS

Property tax history

+3.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,278 · -2.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.