3740 Blackwood Rd #65 · South Lake Tahoe, CA 96150

$129,990

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 672 sqft · Manufactured · 21 Days on market

Built 2021 Good condition ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.2/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Beautiful Tahoe living in this all ages Manufactured Home Community. Centrally located to everything SPECIAL about South Lake! Home site #65 includes our black appliance package (fridge, stove, oven and microwave). Stop on by and see how adorable this home is in person!

Key facts

• Built 2021
• Listed 21 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Directions: Pioneer Trl to Blackwood, to park entrance; once inside the park, veer left and follow the homes around to 65; Cross street: Pioneer Trl; Property information not verified and subject to change
• HOA & community: No HOA

Exterior

• Parking: No carport; No garage
• Home design: Plans indicate year built; Composition roof
• Construction: Year built source: plans
• Exterior features: Vacant occupancy; Possession at close of escrow

Interior

• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Interior features: Double pane windows; Heating: Other (see remarks)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $130k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $560 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $130k).
• Recommended offer: $128k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.5% vs local median 2.6% in South Lake Tahoe — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#371 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Lake Tahoe Unified (town): math 33% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #786 of 1,400 in CA (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Bijou Community (420 students, 50% FRL); South Tahoe Middle (798 students, 52% FRL); South Tahoe High (1,141 students, 42% FRL) — zoned schools at 48% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.6%/yr); 316 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 437 units permitted in El Dorado County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $898 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• El Dorado County population projected to shrink 3% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.6% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($128k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $128,040 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.42% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.46%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.47%
• DSCR: 1.82
• GRM: 5.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $64,512
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3740 Blackwood Rd #14	0.00mi	2/2.0	720 (+7%)	11mo	$69,000	$96	75
3740 Blackwood Rd #5	0.00mi	1/1.0 (-1)	720 (+7%)	22mo	$80,000	$111	64
3740 Blackwood Rd #22	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	768 (+14%)	9mo	$40,000	$52	59

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.56% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 10.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.43×
• Total profit: $15,693
• Equity at exit: $19,382

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.76×
• Total profit: $64,068
• Equity at exit: $11,239

Cash invested: $36,397 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 96150

• Rents YoY: 3.6%
• Active inventory: 316
• Price-to-rent: 5.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,846 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$682
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$162 /mo · $1,950/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$388
• Net cashflow: $560

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,137

Max offer price $129,990

Occupancy floor 65%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $650	-5% $605	+0% $560	+5% $515	+10% $470
Rent	-10% $414	-5% $487	+0% $560	+5% $633	+10% $706
Rate	-1.0pp $626	-0.5pp $593	base $560	+0.5pp $527	+1.0pp $492

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,498
• Closing costs: $3,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3624 Terry Ln Unit 26 South Lake Tahoe, CA	2.0	1.0	728	$1,895	$2.60	18d	1	0.18mi
1232 Ski Run Blvd South Lake Tahoe, CA	1.0	1.0	700	$1,500	$2.14	0d	1	0.19mi
1235 Ski Run Blvd Unit 5 South Lake Tahoe, CA	1.0	1.0	400	$1,400	$3.50	16d	1	0.24mi
3668 Spruce Ave Unit 21 South Lake Tahoe, CA	1.0	1.0	595	$1,449	$2.44	45d	1	0.32mi
3671 Spruce Ave Unit 1 South Lake Tahoe, CA	1.0	1.0	650	$1,750	$2.69	45d	1	0.34mi
3671 Spruce Ave Unit 5 South Lake Tahoe, CA	1.0	1.0	636	$1,725	$2.71	4d	1	0.34mi
3679 Alder Ave South Lake Tahoe, CA	2.0	2.0	683	$2,200	$3.22	4d	1	0.53mi
3780 Stewart Way Unit 6 South Lake Tahoe, CA	2.0	1.0	616	$2,500	$4.06	13d	1	0.54mi
3831 Pentagon Rd Unit 14 South Lake Tahoe, CA	1.0	1.0	400	$1,475	$3.69	45d	1	0.87mi
3880 Pioneer Trl #2 South Lake Tahoe, CA	1.0	1.0	446	$1,600	$3.59	25d	1	0.94mi
3930 Pioneer Trl Unit 200-25 South Lake Tahoe, CA	1.0	1.0	500	$1,400	$2.80	25d	1	1.07mi
1037 Echo Rd Unit 3 South Lake Tahoe, CA	1.0	1.0	545	$1,875	$3.44	6d	1	1.10mi
1037 Echo Rd Unit 4 South Lake Tahoe, CA	1.0	1.0	545	$1,975	$3.62	19d	1	1.10mi
3993 Manzanita Ave Unit 8 South Lake Tahoe, CA	1.0	1.0	700	$1,595	$2.28	16d	1	1.22mi
966 Modesto Ave South Lake Tahoe, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	450	$1,590	$3.53	0d	2	1.26mi
946 Modesto Ave Unit 4 South Lake Tahoe, CA	1.0	1.0	600	$1,695	$2.83	45d	1	1.30mi
881 Modesto Ave Unit 6 South Lake Tahoe, CA	1.0	1.0	670	$1,450	$2.16	6d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $129,990 Active 21 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $129,990 Active 18 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $129,990 Active 17 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $129,990 Active 16 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $129,990 Active 15 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $129,990 Active 13 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $129,990 Active 9 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $129,990 Active 8 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $129,990 Active 7 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $129,990 Active 3 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $129,990 Active 2 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    remarks 270-char remark
13. 2026-06-01
    listed $129,990 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 69% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥81°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 7/10 Severe 13 unhealthy d/yr today · 15 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,156
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,281
• − Property taxes: −$1,950
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,772
• − Management: −$1,772
• − Depreciation: −$3,782
• Taxable income: $4,948
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,188
• After-tax cash flow: $5,536/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 8 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This manufactured home is in good condition with cosmetic updates needed to enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Replace carpet in bedrooms — Improves aesthetics and comfort
• Both Install smart home devices — Enhances convenience and marketability

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Replace carpet in bedrooms — Improves aesthetics and comfort ↑
• Both Install smart home devices — Enhances convenience and marketability ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lake Tahoe Unified
• NCES district ID: 0620640
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $49,114
• Composite: 35.24/100
• National rank: #9844
• State rank: #786 of 1400 in CA

Livability — South Lake Tahoe

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #371
• US rank: #12667

Category grades

Amenities C Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment C Housing C Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: South Lake Tahoe, CA
• County: El Dorado County · 144,198 people
• City population: 29,646
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• Population (ZIP): 29,646
• Household income: $92,517
• Rent vs Own: 38.8% rent · 61.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1109.0

Population outlook (El Dorado County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 191,666 people
• By 2030: 193,662 · +1.0%
• By 2040: 192,583 · +0.5%
• By 2050: 185,904 · -3.0%
• By 2075: 169,543 · -11.5%
• By 2100: 139,623 · -27.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Hispanic / Latino 24% Two or more races 11% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 17% Tagalog/Filipino 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · El Dorado

• 2024 margin: R (+12.0) · D 42.6% · R 54.6% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.5pp toward R · 2008: -10.5pp · 2024: -12.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+12.0 2020: R+8.8 2016: R+13.9 2012: R+18.2 2008: R+10.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -571.55%
• Current HPI: 316.6411
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.56%
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-7.1% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-31 Listed $129,990 STARMLS
• 2024-02-20 Price Changed $119,990 STARMLS
• 2023-11-08 Listed $139,990 STARMLS