27 Mill Creek Dr · Ward, AR 72176

$230,000

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,370 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 12 Days on market

Built 2016 0.28 ac lot Est $199k · 16% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.5/30.0
• Appreciation +7.7/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.9/10.0
• ARV discount +0.4/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

Come see this great 4bd/2ba home! A large living area and open dining area. The kitchen has granite countertops, all stainless appliances and the refrigerator stays with the home. A separate laundry room and spacious garage. The master bedroom is separate from the other three. One of the bedrooms has countertops installed for use as a craft room or office but can easily be made back into a bedroom. A large back yard with a concrete patio, built in fire pit and above ground pool perfect for entertaining.

Key facts

• Concrete patio
• Built-in countertops
• Backyard retreat

Tags

• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• BUILT-IN COUNTERTOPS
• BACKYARD RETREAT
• CONCRETE PATIO
• BUILT-IN FIRE PIT

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Accepts VA, FHA, conventional and rural development loans, or cash
• HOA & community: Located in the Mill Creek Acres subdivision

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage with automatic door opener
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric service via cooperative; Insulated windows; Insulated doors
• Home design: Brick and metal/vinyl siding exterior
• Construction: Architectural shingle roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Patio; Above-ground pool; Guttering; Paved road access; Level lot in a subdivision

Interior

• Kitchen: Free-standing stove; Electric range; Microwave; Dishwasher; Garbage disposal; Pantry; Refrigerator remains
• Bedrooms: Walk-in closet(s) (bedroom features)
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heating; Central electric cooling
• Interior features: Washer connection; Electric dryer connection; Electric water heater; Smoke detectors; Walk-in closets; Ceiling fans; Granite slab kitchen counters
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $230k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-159 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $202k (12.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $159k (30.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $159k (30.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#66 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Cabot School District (suburban): math 48% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #29 of 238 in AR (top 12%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Ward Central Elementary (math 57% / reading 42%, grade D, #93 of 454 statewide, top 23%, 494 students, 62% FRL); Cabot Middle School North (math 52% / reading 41%, grade D+, #49 of 201 statewide, top 26%, 907 students, 42% FRL); Cabot High School (math 29% / reading 45%, grade F, #64 of 292 statewide, top 26%, 2,198 students, 36% FRL) — zoned schools average 47% FRL vs 30% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 156 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 185 units permitted in Lonoke County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $14k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $12k appreciation (5.3% local appreciation)).
• Lonoke County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $157k; 46% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $159,336 (30.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.69% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.46%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.96%
• DSCR: 0.87
• GRM: 12.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $198,650
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10 Mill Creek Dr	0.11mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,347 (-2%)	1mo	$205,000	$152	85
710 Moon Rd	0.22mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,321 (-4%)	4mo	$224,500	$170	73
720 Moon Rd	0.22mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,321 (-4%)	5mo	$224,500	$170	73
480 Moonlight Graham Blvd	0.37mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,435 (+5%)	5mo	$196,000	$137	64
440 Moonlight Graham Blvd	0.37mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,280 (-7%)	5mo	$185,000	$145	61
460 Moonlight Graham Blvd	0.35mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,489 (+9%)	1mo	$200,000	$134	59
500 Moonlight Graham Blvd	0.35mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,489 (+9%)	4mo	$211,000	$142	57
7 Sunshine Ln	0.65mi	4/2.0	1,449 (+6%)	4mo	$192,000	$133	54
23 Moonridge Dr	0.71mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,242 (-9%)	1mo	$180,000	$145	43
3 Moonlight Cv	0.67mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,485 (+8%)	9mo	$197,900	$133	40
3 Sunrise Ln	0.67mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,198 (-13%)	5mo	$189,900	$159	37
1 Moon Ridge Dr	0.73mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,511 (+10%)	6mo	$219,900	$146	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.35% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.74×
• Total profit: $47,504
• Equity at exit: $135,320

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.33×
• Total profit: $150,134
• Equity at exit: $237,771

Cash invested: $64,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 72176

• Home prices YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 156
• Price-to-rent: 12.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,593 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,206
• Tax from tax record: −$116 /mo · $1,386/yr
• Insurance: −$96
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$335
• Net cashflow: $-159

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,794

Max offer price $201,961

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-29	-5% $-94	+0% $-159	+5% $-224	+10% $-289
Rent	-10% $-285	-5% $-222	+0% $-159	+5% $-96	+10% $-33
Rate	-1.0pp $-43	-0.5pp $-100	base $-159	+0.5pp $-218	+1.0pp $-279

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,500
• Closing costs: $6,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12 Gold Meadows Loop Ward, AR	3.0	2.0	1484	$1,300	$0.88	25d	1	0.77mi
65 Birchwood Dr Ward, AR	3.0	2.0	1302	$1,650	$1.27	23d	1	0.89mi
21 Windsor Park Dr Ward, AR	3.0	2.0	1442	$1,500	$1.04	25d	1	0.93mi
21 Weatherwood Ward, AR	3.0	2.0	1156	$1,300	$1.12	25d	1	1.26mi
29 Green Apple Ward, AR	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,450	$1.21	20d	1	1.27mi
23 Green Apple Ward, AR	3.0	2.0	1212	$1,450	$1.20	25d	1	1.28mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $230,000 Active 12 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $230,000 Active 9 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $230,000 Active 8 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   statusdays on market $230,000 Active 7 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $230,000 New Listing 6 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $230,000 New Listing 4 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   remarks 695-char remark
8. 2026-06-10
   listed $230,000 New Listing 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,386 · $116/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,472 · $123/mo
• Expected delta: +$86/yr (+$7/mo · 6.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 8% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,120
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,884
• − Property taxes: −$1,386
• − Insurance: −$1,150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,530
• − Management: −$1,530
• − Depreciation: −$6,691
• Taxable loss: −$6,049
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,452
• After-tax cash flow: $-453/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cabot School District
• NCES district ID: 0503750
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $55,993
• Composite: 39.66/100
• National rank: #3912
• State rank: #29 of 238 in AR

Livability — Ward

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #66
• US rank: #8464

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety C+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ward, AR
• County: Lonoke County · 46,130 people
• City population: 8,678
• Metro: Little Rock-North Little Rock-Conway, AR
• Population (ZIP): 8,678
• Household income: $68,840
• Rent vs Own: 28.2% rent · 71.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 90.0

Population outlook (Lonoke County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 78,072 people
• By 2030: 80,673 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 84,977 · +8.8%
• By 2050: 87,778 · +12.4%
• By 2075: 91,398 · +17.1%
• By 2100: 87,858 · +12.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2%
• Common ancestry: Russian 2% Iranian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% Tagalog/Filipino 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lonoke

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+53.7) · D 22.2% · R 75.8% · Other 2.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.2pp toward R · 2008: -47.5pp · 2024: -53.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+53.7 2020: R+52.8 2016: R+53.3 2012: R+50.9 2008: R+47.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.35%
• Current HPI: 208.9387
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Little Rock-North Little Rock-Conway, AR
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

+67.9% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-09 Listed $230,000 CARMLS
• 2020-11-18 Sold (Public Records) $157,000 Public Records
• 2020-11-14 Pending — CARMLS
• 2020-11-13 Sold (MLS) $157,000 CARMLS
• 2020-10-07 Contingent — CARMLS
• 2020-10-05 Listed $150,000 CARMLS
• 2017-03-02 Sold (Public Records) $131,000 Public Records
• 2017-02-24 Sold (MLS) $131,000 CARMLS
• 2017-01-19 Pending — CARMLS
• 2017-01-12 Price Changed $136,500 CARMLS
• 2016-12-22 Listed $137,000 CARMLS
• 2016-12-16 Listing Removed — CARMLS
• 2016-08-31 Listed $137,000 CARMLS

Property tax history

+25.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,386 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.