54 Shamrock Dr · Lackawanna, NY 14218

$49,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · — sqft · Manufactured · 9 Days on market

Built 2025 Excellent condition ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Wow Brand new in 2025! Fantastic 1 bedroom home with a great open (20 x 14) floor plan in kitchen & great room. Any chef would love all the new appliances, Hickory cabinetry with soft close drawers, a pantry & an island for great entertaining. All windows are double hung which gives you ease of cleaning inside. A large bathroom has an attractive vanity, sink and walk in shower. The concrete driveway makes for convenient parking. Why rent when you can own this brand new home (42x16 for a total of 672 sq ft) which is convenient to all stores, restaurants & travel. Available immediately.

Key facts

• Built 2025
• Listed 9 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $49k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $412 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $49k).
• Cap rate 18.0% vs local median 5.4% in Lackawanna — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#254 in NY, #4,026 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, schools D+, employment D+.
• Lackawanna City School District (suburban): math 19% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #588 of 590 in NY (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 92 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $339 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $49,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.11% ✓
• Cap rate: 18.01%
• Cash-on-cash: 41.86%
• DSCR: 2.86
• GRM: 3.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $27,590
• List price: $49,000
• Delta: 95.73%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 7 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
55 Shamrock Dr	0.01mi	2/1.0 (+1)	768	5mo	$59,900	$78	78
72 Shamrock	0.02mi	2/1.0 (+1)	800	5mo	$25,000	$31	78
92 Tracy Pkwy	0.03mi	2/1.0 (+1)	832	7mo	$27,000	$32	76
68 Shamrock	0.04mi	2/1.0 (+1)	672	8mo	$50,000	$74	74
14 Van Wyck St	0.30mi	2/1.0 (+1)	723	4mo	$24,500	$34	65
48 Van Wyck St	0.30mi	2/1.0 (+1)	600	24mo	$20,000	$33	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 31.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.34×
• Total profit: $18,368
• Equity at exit: $7,306

10-year hold

• IRR: 39.0%
• Equity multiple: 4.65×
• Total profit: $50,026
• Equity at exit: $4,237

Cash invested: $13,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14218

• Home prices YoY: -9.2%
• Active inventory: 92
• Price-to-rent: 3.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,034 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$257
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$61 /mo · $735/yr
• Insurance: −$20
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$217
• Net cashflow: $412

Break-even live

Break-even rent $513

Max offer price $49,000

Occupancy floor 55%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,250
• Closing costs: $1,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5 Warsaw St Lackawanna, NY	2.0	1.0	—	$650	—	44d	1	0.75mi
12 Knowlton Ave Lackawanna, NY	1.0	1.0	750	$975	$1.30	17d	1	0.75mi
16 Knowlton Ave Lackawanna, NY	1.0	1.0	—	$975	—	24d	1	0.75mi
4250 E Allen St Unit 2 Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	—	$1,195	—	44d	1	1.06mi
4227 E Allen St Unit 3 Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,300	$1.30	2d	1	1.07mi
4227 E Allen St Unit 4 Buffalo, NY	1.0	1.0	—	$1,100	—	44d	1	1.07mi
150 Center St Unit REAR Lackawanna, NY	2.0	1.0	—	$1,000	—	24d	1	1.09mi
3400 McKinley Pkwy Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	908	$1,330	$1.46	2d	1	1.21mi
43 Nason Pkwy Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	3194	$1,200	$0.38	24d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $49,000 Active 9 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $49,000 Active 8 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $49,000 Active 7 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $49,000 Active 6 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $49,000 Active 4 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   pricedays on marketlisting id $49,000 Active 1 DOM
7. 2026-05-31
   days on market $54,000 Active 201 DOM
8. 2026-04-21
   price $54,000 609-char remark

   Show marketing remark (609 chars)

   Wow Brand new in 2025! Fantastic 1 bedroom home with a great open (20 x 14) floor plan in kitchen & great room. Any chef would love all the new appliances, Hickory cabinetry with soft close drawers, a pantry & an island for great entertaining. All windows are double hung which gives you ease of cleaning inside. A large bathroom has an attractive vanity, sink and walk in shower. The concrete driveway makes for convenient parking. Why rent when you can own this brand new home (42x16 for a total of 672 sq ft) which is convenient to all stores, restaurants & travel. Available immediately.

9. 2025-11-11
   listed $55,900 Active 609-char remark

   Show marketing remark (609 chars)

   Wow Brand new in 2025! Fantastic 1 bedroom home with a great open (20 x 14) floor plan in kitchen & great room. Any chef would love all the new appliances, Hickory cabinetry with soft close drawers, a pantry & an island for great entertaining. All windows are double hung which gives you ease of cleaning inside. A large bathroom has an attractive vanity, sink and walk in shower. The concrete driveway makes for convenient parking. Why rent when you can own this brand new home (42x16 for a total of 672 sq ft) which is convenient to all stores, restaurants & travel. Available immediately.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 78% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,414
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,745
• − Property taxes: −$735
• − Insurance: −$1,042
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$993
• − Management: −$993
• − Depreciation: −$1,425
• Taxable income: $4,480
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,075
• After-tax cash flow: $3,871/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

Brand new 1-bedroom home with a great open floor plan, new appliances, and double hung windows. Ready to move in immediately.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lackawanna City School District
• NCES district ID: 3616440
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $35,041
• Composite: 19.76/100
• National rank: #8708
• State rank: #588 of 590 in NY

Livability — Lackawanna

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #254
• US rank: #4026

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lackawanna, NY
• City population: 20,661
• Population (ZIP): 20,661

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Black 13% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 8%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 18% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Arabic 11% Spanish 6% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -39.44%
• Current HPI: 389.0188
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-3.4% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-21 Price Changed $54,000 WNYREIS
• 2025-11-11 Listed $55,900 WNYREIS