1414 Daniels Creek Rd · Collinsville, VA 24078

$162,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,590 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 128 Days on market

Built 1945 5.00 ac lot Est $227k · 28% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +13.9/30.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

More less 5 acres of nice lying land, located In the heart of Collinsville so convenient to shopping, churches, restaurants etc. Hardwood Floors in LR/Bedrooms, New Cornings Roof last year.

Key facts

• Large den
• Stainless appliances
• Hardwood floors

Tags

• 5 ACRE PARK-LIKE SETTING
• OPEN COUNTRY KITCHEN
• STAINLESS APPLIANCES
• SPACIOUS FAMILY ROOM
• LARGE DEN
• HARDWOOD FLOORS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Approximately 5 acres lot
• HOA & community: Nearby restaurant

Exterior

• Parking: 1 covered parking space; Off-street parking available
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 1945
• Exterior features: Front porch

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms, all on the main level
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl; Wood
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (oil); Electric heat pump for cooling
• Interior features: Storage; 8 total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $163k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $19 ($222/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $123k (24.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $123k (24.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 3.8% in Collinsville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#265 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, schools B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Henry County Public School District (rural): math 45% / reading 69% proficiency, ranked #78 of 131 in VA (top 60%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 35 active listings in the ZIP; 33 units permitted in Henry County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Henry County population projected at -28% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 128 days — a 12% lower offer ($143k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $127k; 28% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1945 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $123,230 (24.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 128 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1945 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.43%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.49%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 11.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $227,370
• Comps found: 7

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
440 Belmont St	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,678 (+6%)	1mo	$239,900	$143	73
1343 Daniels Creek Rd	0.08mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,584 (-0%)	24mo	$103,000	$65	67
40 Hawthorne Ct	0.37mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,396 (-12%)	4mo	$200,000	$143	54
280 Ikenberry Rd	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,817 (+14%)	15mo	$290,000	$160	49
50 Williams St	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,638 (+3%)	16mo	$253,600	$155	48
58 Hawthorne Ct	0.35mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,396 (-12%)	16mo	$183,500	$131	45
127 Patsy Ave	0.64mi	3/1.5	1,687 (+6%)	22mo	$203,500	$121	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-25,302
• Equity at exit: $24,289

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.54×
• Total profit: $-20,863
• Equity at exit: $14,085

Cash invested: $45,612 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 24078

• Home prices YoY: -19.3%
• Active inventory: 35
• Price-to-rent: 11.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,232 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$854
• Tax from tax record: −$33 /mo · $394/yr
• Insurance: −$68
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$259
• Net cashflow: $19

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,209

Max offer price $162,900

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $111	-5% $65	+0% $19	+5% $-28	+10% $-74
Rent	-10% $-79	-5% $-30	+0% $19	+5% $67	+10% $116
Rate	-1.0pp $101	-0.5pp $60	base $19	+0.5pp $-24	+1.0pp $-67

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $40,725
• Closing costs: $4,887
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-04-29
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-19
   status Active
3. 2026-03-06
   status Pending
4. 2025-12-09
   listed $162,900 Active
5. 2023-09-22
   soldstatus $127,000
6. 2023-09-21
   historical 190-char remark

   Show marketing remark (190 chars)

   More less 5 acres of nice lying land, located In the heart of Collinsville so convenient to shopping, churches, restaurants etc. Hardwood Floors in LR/Bedrooms, New Cornings Roof last year.

7. 2023-09-20
   soldstatus $127,000 Closed 190-char remark

   Show marketing remark (190 chars)

   More less 5 acres of nice lying land, located In the heart of Collinsville so convenient to shopping, churches, restaurants etc. Hardwood Floors in LR/Bedrooms, New Cornings Roof last year.

8. 2023-08-21
   status Pending 190-char remark

   Show marketing remark (190 chars)

   More less 5 acres of nice lying land, located In the heart of Collinsville so convenient to shopping, churches, restaurants etc. Hardwood Floors in LR/Bedrooms, New Cornings Roof last year.

9. 2023-07-21
   price $149,900 190-char remark

   Show marketing remark (190 chars)

   More less 5 acres of nice lying land, located In the heart of Collinsville so convenient to shopping, churches, restaurants etc. Hardwood Floors in LR/Bedrooms, New Cornings Roof last year.

10. 2023-05-25
    listed $159,900 Active 190-char remark

    Show marketing remark (190 chars)

    More less 5 acres of nice lying land, located In the heart of Collinsville so convenient to shopping, churches, restaurants etc. Hardwood Floors in LR/Bedrooms, New Cornings Roof last year.

11. 2008-09-10
    historical
12. 2008-04-11
    listed $99,795

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $394 · $33/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,336 · $111/mo
• Expected delta: +$942/yr (+$78/mo · 239.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,788
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,125
• − Property taxes: −$394
• − Insurance: −$814
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,183
• − Management: −$1,183
• − Depreciation: −$4,739
• Taxable loss: −$2,651
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$636
• After-tax cash flow: $859/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Henry County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5101920
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -37.00%
• Reading proficiency: 69% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $34,579
• Composite: 47.02/100
• National rank: #2345
• State rank: #78 of 131 in VA

Livability — Collinsville

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #265
• US rank: #9378

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Collinsville, VA
• City population: 7,217
• Population (ZIP): 7,217

Population outlook (Henry County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 46,903 people
• By 2030: 44,141 · -5.9%
• By 2040: 38,687 · -17.5%
• By 2050: 33,742 · -28.1%
• By 2075: 25,720 · -45.2%
• By 2100: 19,868 · -57.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Black 18% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Serbian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 11% Arabic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Henry

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+32.8) · D 33.3% · R 66.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.4pp toward R · 2008: -10.5pp · 2024: -32.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+32.8 2020: R+29.1 2016: R+29.2 2012: R+14.7 2008: R+10.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -39.80%
• Current HPI: 166.2533
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+63.2% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-29 Pending — MLSRV
• 2026-03-19 Relisted — MLSRV
• 2026-03-06 Pending — MLSRV
• 2025-12-09 Listed $162,900 MLSRV
• 2023-09-22 Sold (Public Records) $127,000 Public Records
• 2023-09-21 Delisted — MHPCAR
• 2023-09-20 Sold (MLS) $127,000 MHPCAR
• 2023-08-21 Pending — MHPCAR
• 2023-07-21 Price Changed $149,900 MHPCAR
• 2023-05-25 Listed $159,900 MHPCAR
• 2008-09-10 Listing Removed — MLSRV
• 2008-04-11 Listed $99,795 MLSRV

Property tax history

+1.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $394 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.