712 Lake Point Dr · Johnson City, TN 37686

$374,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,357 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 218 Days on market

Built 2018 0.39 ac lot Est $415k · 10% under ↓ 12% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +11.9/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 712 Lake Pointe Drive - ''Cuteness Overload'' a beautifully maintained cottage style home in the highly sought-after Lake Pointe community of Piney Flats with no restrictions or HOA! This attractive 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers a bright and open floor plan with easy access, and custom touches throughout. The main level features an open living area with a beautiful kitchen complete with granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, and white cabinets. The downstairs bedroom has a walk-in closet, and rear deck access, nice bathroom with walk-in shower. Two additional bedrooms and a full bath with additional space currently being used as a powder room upstairs provide ample spac

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Landscaped yard
• Walk in closet

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• WALK IN CLOSET
• REAR DECK ACCESS
• LANDSCAPED YARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $375k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $4k ($51k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($8k rent vs $375k).
• Recommended offer: $330k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 20.0% vs local median 3.1% in Johnson City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#8 in TN, #3,349 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A; Watch: crime D, commute F, employment F.
• Sullivan County (suburban): math 17% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #109 of 139 in TN (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Mary Hughes School (math 27% / reading 22%, grade F, #546 of 952 statewide, top 61%, 339 students, 0% FRL); Sullivan East Middle School (math 8% / reading 11%, grade F, #260 of 333 statewide, top 79%, 573 students, 0% FRL); Sullivan East High School (math 10% / reading 27%, grade F, #208 of 332 statewide, top 63%, 849 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 45% district-wide (45 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 85 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 453 units permitted in Sullivan County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sullivan County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $105k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 218 days — a 12% lower offer ($330k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $329,999 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 218 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.20% ✓
• Cap rate: 20.02%
• Cash-on-cash: 49.04%
• DSCR: 3.18
• GRM: 3.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $415,242
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
760 Lake Point Dr	0.10mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,280 (-6%)	1mo	$565,000	$441	80
422 Lake Haven Private Dr	0.19mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,502 (+11%)	13mo	$460,000	$306	56
208 Two St	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,392 (+3%)	23mo	$304,000	$218	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 46.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.02×
• Total profit: $212,432
• Equity at exit: $55,914

10-year hold

• IRR: 52.4%
• Equity multiple: 6.11×
• Total profit: $536,485
• Equity at exit: $32,423

Cash invested: $105,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 37686

• Home prices YoY: -10.2%
• Active inventory: 85
• Price-to-rent: 3.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $8,246 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,967
• Tax from tax record: −$100 /mo · $1,206/yr
• Insurance: −$156
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,732
• Net cashflow: $4,291

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,814

Max offer price $374,999

Occupancy floor 43%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $93,750
• Closing costs: $11,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
521 Baywood Dr Unit 1397963P Piney Flats, TN	2.0	2.5	1614	$8,246	$5.11	21d	1	1.08mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2025-12-19
   soldstatus $365,000
2. 2025-11-16
   status Pending
3. 2025-11-11
   status Active
4. 2025-11-08
   historical
5. 2025-07-28
   price $374,999
6. 2025-05-23
   price $379,999
7. 2025-04-27
   price $394,999
8. 2025-04-09
   listed $399,999 Active
9. 2025-03-31
   historical
10. 2024-11-22
    price $400,000
11. 2024-11-11
    price $414,600
12. 2024-11-07
    price $400,000
13. 2024-09-13
    listed $415,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TN · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,206 · $100/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,662 · $222/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,456/yr (+$121/mo · 120.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $98,952
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,006
• − Property taxes: −$1,206
• − Insurance: −$1,875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$7,916
• − Management: −$7,916
• − Depreciation: −$10,909
• Taxable income: $48,124
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$11,550
• After-tax cash flow: $39,943/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sullivan County
• NCES district ID: 4703990
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 24% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $43,263
• Composite: 17.66/100
• National rank: #9030
• State rank: #109 of 139 in TN

Livability — Johnson City

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #8
• US rank: #3349

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment F Housing A- Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 99,926
• Population (ZIP): 9,149

Population outlook (Sullivan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 157,030 people
• By 2030: 156,415 · -0.4%
• By 2040: 153,778 · -2.1%
• By 2050: 149,018 · -5.1%
• By 2075: 138,068 · -12.1%
• By 2100: 119,927 · -23.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Asian 3% Hispanic / Latino 2% Two or more races 2% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 7% Slovak 3% Serbian 3%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sullivan

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+55.0) · D 22.0% · R 77.0% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.6pp toward R · 2008: -41.3pp · 2024: -55.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+55.0 2020: R+51.9 2016: R+56.2 2012: R+47.2 2008: R+41.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -34.96%
• Current HPI: 306.7377
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

-12.0% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-19 Sold (Public Records) $365,000 Public Records
• 2025-11-16 Pending — TVRMLS
• 2025-11-11 Relisted — TVRMLS
• 2025-11-08 Delisted — TVRMLS
• 2025-07-28 Price Changed $374,999 TVRMLS
• 2025-05-23 Price Changed $379,999 TVRMLS
• 2025-04-27 Price Changed $394,999 TVRMLS
• 2025-04-09 Listed $399,999 TVRMLS
• 2025-03-31 Listing Removed — Knoxville MLS
• 2024-11-22 Price Changed $400,000 TVRMLS
• 2024-11-11 Price Changed $414,600 TVRMLS
• 2024-11-07 Price Changed $400,000 Knoxville MLS
• 2024-09-13 Listed $415,000 Knoxville MLS

Property tax history

+29.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,206 · +13.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.