26351 Anthony Mill Rd · Denton, MD 21629

$264,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,092 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1977 1.02 ac lot Est $287k · 8% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +7.9/30.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.0/10.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0
• 1% rule +1.5/10.0

Listing remarks

Affordable country living with room to grow! This well-maintained home is currently configured as a 2-bedroom but offers the potential for a 3rd bedroom, with septic already approved for 3 bedrooms. Situated on a full acre, the property features an above-ground pool, multiple outbuildings for storage, hobbies, or workshop space, and a generator hookup for added peace of mind. A rare opportunity to enjoy space, functionality, and value all in one property. Being sold "as-is", but in great condition.

Key facts

• Generator hookup
• Above-ground pool
• 1.02 acre lot

Tags

• ABOVE-GROUND POOL
• MULTIPLE OUTBUILDINGS
• GENERATOR HOOKUP

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Fee simple ownership; Not in a federal flood zone

Exterior

• Parking: Detached carport with 2 spaces; Driveway parking on asphalt/paved driveway; Total of 2 garage/parking spaces
• Utilities: Well water; Private septic tank; Electric heating, cooling, and hot water
• Home design: Detached single-family home; Entry level main floor; Facing direction not specified
• Construction: Aluminum siding; Stick-built construction; Block foundation with crawl space; Double-hung insulated windows with screens; Pets allowed (cats and dogs)
• Exterior features: Corner lot with front and rear yard; Partly wooded and private, secluded setting; Not in development; Road frontage; Above-ground personal pool with vinyl lining; Shed / storage barn on property (wood/metal); Other outbuilding(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Electric oven/range; Range hood; Stove; Extra refrigerator/freezer; Freezer
• Bedrooms: 2 main-level bedrooms; Rooms include: Living Room, Bedroom 1, Bedroom 2, Bedroom 3, Kitchen, Laundry, Bathroom
• Flooring: Luxury vinyl plank; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Electric baseboard heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Stall shower; Ceiling fans; Chair railings; Crown moldings; Traditional floor plan; Eat-in kitchen with table space; Wainscoting; Window treatments
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Electric dryer (front-loading); Main-floor laundry; Electric water heater; Exhaust fan

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $265k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-281 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $215k (18.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $173k (34.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $173k (34.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 3.6% in Denton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#260 in MD) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities C-, employment D, schools D-.
• Caroline County Public Schools (rural): math 13% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #17 of 24 in MD (top 71%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 56 active listings in the ZIP; 59 units permitted in Caroline County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $28k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $26k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Caroline County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$46k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 55% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $173,455 (34.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.65% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.02%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.55%
• DSCR: 0.80
• GRM: 12.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $287,196
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
26280 Hobbs Rd	0.19mi	2/1.5	960 (-12%)	19mo	$252,500	$263	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.70×
• Total profit: $126,259
• Equity at exit: $238,643

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.1%
• Equity multiple: 6.20×
• Total profit: $385,746
• Equity at exit: $514,642

Cash invested: $74,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21629

• Home prices YoY: 8.5%
• Active inventory: 56
• Price-to-rent: 12.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,735 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,389
• Tax from tax record: −$152 /mo · $1,827/yr
• Insurance: −$110
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$364
• Net cashflow: $-281

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,091

Max offer price $215,173

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-132	-5% $-207	+0% $-281	+5% $-356	+10% $-431
Rent	-10% $-419	-5% $-350	+0% $-281	+5% $-213	+10% $-144
Rate	-1.0pp $-148	-0.5pp $-214	base $-281	+0.5pp $-350	+1.0pp $-420

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $66,225
• Closing costs: $7,947
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-17
   status $264,900 Pending 1 DOM
2. 2026-05-20
   historical Active Under Contract
3. 2026-05-19
   listed $264,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,827 · $152/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,357 · $196/mo
• Expected delta: +$530/yr (+$44/mo · 29.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 55% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,815
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,839
• − Property taxes: −$1,827
• − Insurance: −$1,324
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,665
• − Management: −$1,665
• − Depreciation: −$7,706
• Taxable loss: −$8,212
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,971
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,407/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Caroline County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400180
• Math proficiency: 13% ▼ -22.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -14.00%
• Median HH income: $55,076
• Composite: 19.16/100
• National rank: #8823
• State rank: #17 of 24 in MD

Livability — Denton

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #260
• US rank: #13277

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 10,285
• Population (ZIP): 10,285

Population outlook (Caroline County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 31,205 people
• By 2030: 30,204 · -3.2%
• By 2040: 27,866 · -10.7%
• By 2050: 25,342 · -18.8%
• By 2075: 20,554 · -34.1%
• By 2100: 17,415 · -44.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Black 14% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Caroline

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+38.0) · D 29.9% · R 67.9% · Other 2.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.0pp toward R · 2008: -23.0pp · 2024: -38.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+38.0 2020: R+32.9 2016: R+39.5 2012: R+24.4 2008: R+23.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 27.95%
• Current HPI: 356.683
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Contingent — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-19 Listed $264,900 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

+3.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,827 · +5.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.