5800 Lumberdale Rd #55 · Houston, TX 77092

$125,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,558 sqft · Townhouse public records · 38 Days on market

Built 1976 1,129 sqft lot $80/sqft · 21% below area Est $159k · 21% under $400/mo HOA · 25% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +7.9/10.0
• Cash flow +7.7/30.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.9/5.0
• DSCR +1.8/10.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Tucked into highly sought-after and very charming community of Forest Lake near Oak Forest, this townhome offers space, character, and the opportunity to create something truly your own. The layout features two oversized bedrooms upstairs, each with ensuite baths, while the first floor offers comfortable living and dining spaces, a breakfast area, kitchen, and convenient half bath. A private balcony overlooks the courtyard, and the rear fenced patio creates a great indoor-outdoor connection between the home and the attached two-car covered carport through the sliding glass doors. Unit also has an outdoor storage space in the patio. Residents enjoy a community pool, added security features,

Key facts

• Community pool
• Private balcony
• Rear fenced patio

Tags

• PRIVATE BALCONY
• REAR FENCED PATIO
• OUTDOOR STORAGE SPACE
• COMMUNITY POOL
• ADDED SECURITY FEATURES
• CLOSE TO SHOPPING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Pet restrictions
• Financial info: Lease not considered
• HOA & community: Forrest Lake Townhouse Association; Monthly association fee of $400; HOA covers common areas, cable TV, grounds maintenance, recreation facilities, sewer, trash and water

Exterior

• Parking: Carport for 2 vehicles; Assigned and unassigned parking available
• Security: Guarded community
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Faces west; 2 stories; Entry on first floor
• Construction: Brick construction; Composition roof; Slab foundation; Built in 1976
• Exterior features: Concrete road surface; Additional paved parking

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on first floor (11 x 8); Kitchen/Dining and Kitchen/Family room layouts; Breakfast nook (8 x 8)
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on second floor (19 x 17); One additional bedroom possible (second floor, 12 x 13)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom; Primary bathroom on second floor (5 x 4)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Kitchen/Family room combo; Primary bedroom with private bath; Tub and shower; Kitchen/Dining combo; One fireplace; Seven total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in utility room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-146 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $99k (20.7% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $125k).
• Recommended offer: $99k (20.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Aldine ISD (suburban): math 16% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #790 of 826 in TX (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 79% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Ermel El (math 20% / reading 21%, grade F, #3,515 of 4,322 statewide, top 82%, 449 students, 92% FRL); Hoffman Middle (math 17% / reading 24%, grade F, #1,407 of 1,662 statewide, top 86%, 637 students, 91% FRL); Aldine H S (math 15% / reading 20%, grade F, #1,451 of 1,632 statewide, top 89%, 2,663 students, 94% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.4%/yr); 195 active listings in the ZIP; 37 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($59k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($121k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $47k; list at $125k implies a 164% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.0% of price; HOA is 25% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $99,143 (20.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
5. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.29% ✓
• Cap rate: 4.89%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.02%
• DSCR: 0.78
• GRM: 6.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $159,034
• List price: $125,000
• Delta: -21.40%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5800 Lumberdale Rd #17	0.00mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,558 (0%)	6mo	$179,000	$115	90
5801 Lumberdale Rd #226	0.13mi	3/2.5	1,558 (0%)	10mo	$175,000	$112	86
6401 Deihl Rd #1402	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,512 (-3%)	6mo	$125,000	$83	83
5801 Lumberdale Rd #66	0.13mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,558 (0%)	10mo	$165,000	$106	81
5801 Lumberdale Rd #76	0.08mi	3/2.5	1,696 (+9%)	8mo	$170,000	$100	75
5800 Lumberdale Rd #106	0.00mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,680 (+8%)	10mo	$130,000	$77	74
5801 Lumberdale Rd #74	0.13mi	3/2.5	1,696 (+9%)	11mo	$195,000	$115	70
5801 Lumberdale Rd #125	0.13mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,680 (+8%)	11mo	$199,000	$118	67
5801 Lumberdale Rd #199	0.13mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,680 (+8%)	11mo	$217,500	$129	67
5813 Village Forest Ct	0.55mi	3/2.5	1,516 (-3%)	5mo	$145,000	$96	66
6200 W Tidwell Rd #601	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,373 (-12%)	9mo	$57,000	$42	65
6200 W Tidwell Rd #2608	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,373 (-12%)	11mo	$75,000	$55	64

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -30.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.03×
• Total profit: $-33,945
• Equity at exit: $18,638

10-year hold

• IRR: -74.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.67×
• Total profit: $-58,368
• Equity at exit: $10,808

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77092

• Home prices YoY: -21.9%
• Rents YoY: -2.4%
• Active inventory: 195
• Price-to-rent: 6.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,616 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$315 /mo · $3,783/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$400
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$339
• Net cashflow: $-146

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,801

Max offer price $99,143

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-76	-5% $-111	+0% $-146	+5% $-182	+10% $-217
Rent	-10% $-274	-5% $-210	+0% $-146	+5% $-83	+10% $-19
Rate	-1.0pp $-83	-0.5pp $-115	base $-146	+0.5pp $-179	+1.0pp $-212

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 37 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6200 W Tidwell Rd Houston, TX	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1101	$1,300	$1.18	4d	11	0.12mi
5853 Village Forest Ct Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1142	$1,600	$1.40	45d	1	0.51mi
5550 Bingle Rd Unit 2162 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1190	$1,355	$1.14	7d	1	0.52mi
5550 Bingle Rd Apt 422 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1190	$1,355	$1.14	9d	1	0.52mi
5550 Bingle Rd Unit 2112 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1190	$1,339	$1.13	0d	1	0.52mi
5550 Bingle Rd Unit 2148 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1190	$1,380	$1.16	0d	1	0.52mi
5550 Bingle Rd Unit 2228 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1190	$1,379	$1.16	4d	1	0.52mi
5550 Bingle Rd Unit 5607 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1190	$1,379	$1.16	12d	1	0.52mi
6123 Birchmont Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1879	$2,700	$1.44	45d	1	0.52mi
5550 Bingle Rd Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1190	$1,580	$1.33	20d	1	0.57mi
5550 Bingle Rd Unit 2047 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1190	$1,390	$1.17	12d	1	0.58mi
5625 Antoine Dr Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.5	888	$900	$1.01	26d	12	0.59mi
5625 Antoine Dr Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.5	1052	$900	$0.86	1d	9	0.59mi
6230 Rena St Unit 1316407P Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1765	$7,148	$4.05	1d	1	0.60mi
7007 Pine Grove Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1104	$2,000	$1.81	7d	1	0.66mi
6318 Leaf Arbor Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1478	$2,250	$1.52	45d	1	0.71mi
5555 Antoine Dr Unit 0804 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1179	$1,008	$0.85	3d	1	0.74mi
6240 Antoine Dr Unit 6273 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1484	$1,424	$0.96	0d	1	0.79mi
5555 Antoine Dr Unit 0614 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1179	$985	$0.84	45d	1	0.79mi
5555 Antoine Dr Unit 0816 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1179	$1,260	$1.07	3d	1	0.79mi
5359 Deep Forest Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1227	$1,409	$1.15	26d	1	0.82mi
5500 Antoine Dr Apt 222 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1152	$1,050	$0.91	45d	1	0.84mi
5131 Spring Forest Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1810	$2,295	$1.27	26d	1	1.02mi
6430 Wilshire Fern Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	2227	$2,300	$1.03	45d	1	1.05mi
5800 Hollister St Unit 510 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1270	$1,229	$0.97	0d	1	1.07mi
7200 Pinemont Dr Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	883	$1,689	$1.91	45d	21	1.17mi
8515 Bartletts Harbor Ct Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1812	$1,989	$1.10	18d	1	1.23mi
6000 Hollister St Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.5	855	$1,424	$1.66	21d	62	1.25mi
6506 W 43rd St Unit 1115 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1373	$1,550	$1.13	45d	1	1.26mi
6506 W 43rd St Unit 1115 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1373	$1,550	$1.13	23d	1	1.26mi
7556 Wilshire Place Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1315	$1,730	$1.32	7d	1	1.37mi
7500 Pinemont Dr Unit 7533 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1130	$1,469	$1.30	0d	1	1.38mi
6565 Hollister St Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	970	$1,854	$1.91	1d	22	1.41mi
7550 Wilshire Place Dr Unit 3174 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1315	$1,644	$1.25	12d	1	1.42mi
7550 Wilshire Place Dr Unit 3228 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1315	$1,604	$1.22	0d	1	1.42mi
7550 Wilshire Place Dr Unit 7583 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1315	$1,810	$1.38	45d	1	1.42mi
7107 Hollister Rd Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1436	$1,541	$1.07	26d	1	1.47mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $400 · $4,800/yr
• Likely covers: poolsecurity

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $125,000 Active 38 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $125,000 Active 35 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $125,000 Active 34 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $125,000 Active 33 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $125,000 Active 32 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $125,000 Active 30 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $125,000 Active 29 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $125,000 Active 26 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $125,000 Active 25 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $125,000 Active 24 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $125,000 Active 21 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $125,000 Active 20 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $125,000 Active 19 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $125,000 Active 18 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $125,000 Active 17 DOM
16. 2026-05-14
    listed $125,000 Active 995-char remark
17. 2021-09-16
    soldstatus
18. 2000-03-23
    soldstatus
19. 1998-02-01
    soldstatus $47,285

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,783 · $315/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,783 · $315/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (shaded) · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,389
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$3,783
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,551
• − Management: −$1,551
• − HOA: −$4,800
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable loss: −$3,559
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$854
• After-tax cash flow: $-902/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Aldine ISD
• NCES district ID: 4807710
• Math proficiency: 16% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 21% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $37,081
• Composite: 15.42/100
• National rank: #9317
• State rank: #790 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 36,938
• Household income: $58,728
• Rent vs Own: 59.4% rent · 40.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1979.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 60% White 25% Two or more races 22% Black 11% Native American 3% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 45%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 30% · Canada
• Languages at home: 47% English-only · Spanish 50% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -84.24%
• Current HPI: 300.5572
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.36%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+164.4% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Listed $125,000 HARMLS
• 2021-09-16 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2000-03-23 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1998-02-01 Sold (Public Records) $47,285 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,783 · +5.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.