209 Clayton Ave · Keenesburg, CO 80643

$369,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,320 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 51 Days on market

Built 2020 4,823 sqft lot $280/sqft · 15% below area Est $417k · 12% under $40/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.2/30.0
• ARV discount +12.7/15.0
• DSCR +6.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 209 Clayton Ave, a residential property with a straightforward design ideal for everyday comfort and ease. The exterior grounds feature a fully fenced in backyard, creating a dedicated outdoor area for organized enjoyment. This functional layout supports routine activities and overall simplicity. Experience practical living and a well-defined outdoor space.. Included 100-Day Home Warranty with buyer activation

Key facts

• 4,823 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2020

Tags

• FULLY FENCED IN BACKYARD
• DEDICATED OUTDOOR AREA

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homes association with professional management; Evan's Place Homeowners Association; HOA fee $40 monthly ($480 annually)

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage; 2 total parking spaces
• Utilities: Electricity available; Natural gas available; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Unattached property; Corporation/Trust ownership
• Construction: Wood siding construction
• Exterior features: Composition roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Microwave
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms, all on the main level
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms, both on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Microwave; Carpet flooring

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $369k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $465 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $361k (2.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $358k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 5.8% in Keenesburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#296 in CO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, employment A, crime B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Weld County School District Re-3J (rural): math 18% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #64 of 86 in CO (top 74%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Hoff Elementary School (math 10% / reading 24%, grade F, #747 of 966 statewide, top 80%, 319 students, 42% FRL); Weld Central Middle School (math 12% / reading 27%, grade F, #207 of 270 statewide, top 79%, 525 students, 53% FRL); Weld Central Senior High School (math 22% / reading 42%, grade F, #220 of 381 statewide, top 59%, 697 students, 42% FRL).
• Market conditions: 62 active listings in the ZIP; 3,170 units permitted in Weld County in 2024 (278 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Weld County population projected at +46% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 51 days — a 3% lower offer ($358k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $23k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $357,930 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 51 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.81%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.40%
• DSCR: 1.24
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $417,297
• List price: $369,000
• Delta: -11.57%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
507 N Johnson St	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,320 (0%)	5mo	$395,000	$299	83
516 Jordan St	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,320 (0%)	4mo	$405,000	$307	76
310 Evans Ave	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,473 (+12%)	2mo	$379,900	$258	74
215 N Stewart St	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,472 (+12%)	5mo	$384,900	$261	74
180 N Cedar St	0.32mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,308 (-1%)	6mo	$365,000	$279	74
201 N Stewart St	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,472 (+12%)	4mo	$400,000	$272	73
310 Quincy Rr Ave	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,473 (+12%)	4mo	$399,000	$271	72
209 N Stewart St	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,476 (+12%)	9mo	$400,000	$271	69
401 Quincy Rr Ave	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,473 (+12%)	11mo	$400,000	$272	58
440 S Pine St	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,251 (-5%)	1mo	$369,900	$296	56
507 Porter Ave	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,476 (+12%)	6mo	$386,000	$262	54
315 S Lambert St	0.60mi	3/3.0	1,482 (+12%)	6mo	$404,100	$273	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.71×
• Total profit: $-30,227
• Equity at exit: $55,019

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.11×
• Total profit: $11,616
• Equity at exit: $31,904

Cash invested: $103,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 38 Tenant-Leaning
• State Colorado: 38 Tenant-Leaning · D+4
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2023 reforms: 10-day cure, mandated notice, source-of-income protected. Courts backlogged in Denver.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 80643

• Home prices YoY: -5.7%
• Active inventory: 62
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,605 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,935
• Tax from tax record: −$254 /mo · $3,051/yr
• Insurance: −$154
• HOA: −$40
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$757
• Net cashflow: $465

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,017

Max offer price $369,000

Occupancy floor 82%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $674	-5% $569	+0% $465	+5% $361	+10% $256
Rent	-10% $180	-5% $323	+0% $465	+5% $607	+10% $750
Rate	-1.0pp $651	-0.5pp $559	base $465	+0.5pp $369	+1.0pp $272

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $92,250
• Closing costs: $11,070
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $40 · $480/yr
• Likely covers: landscaping

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $369,000 Active 51 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $369,000 Active 50 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $369,000 Active 49 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $369,000 Active 48 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $369,000 Active 46 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $369,000 Active 42 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $369,000 Active 41 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $369,000 Active 40 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $369,000 Active 37 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $369,000 Active 36 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $369,000 Active 35 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $369,000 Active 34 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $369,000 Active 33 DOM
14. 2026-05-14
    price $380,000 424-char remark

    Show marketing remark (424 chars)

    Welcome to 209 Clayton Ave, a residential property with a straightforward design ideal for everyday comfort and ease. The exterior grounds feature a fully fenced in backyard, creating a dedicated outdoor area for organized enjoyment. This functional layout supports routine activities and overall simplicity. Experience practical living and a well-defined outdoor space.. Included 100-Day Home Warranty with buyer activation

15. 2026-05-14
    price $380,000 424-char remark

    Show marketing remark (424 chars)

    Welcome to 209 Clayton Ave, a residential property with a straightforward design ideal for everyday comfort and ease. The exterior grounds feature a fully fenced in backyard, creating a dedicated outdoor area for organized enjoyment. This functional layout supports routine activities and overall simplicity. Experience practical living and a well-defined outdoor space.. Included 100-Day Home Warranty with buyer activation

16. 2026-04-28
    listed $392,000 Active 424-char remark

    Show marketing remark (424 chars)

    Welcome to 209 Clayton Ave, a residential property with a straightforward design ideal for everyday comfort and ease. The exterior grounds feature a fully fenced in backyard, creating a dedicated outdoor area for organized enjoyment. This functional layout supports routine activities and overall simplicity. Experience practical living and a well-defined outdoor space.. Included 100-Day Home Warranty with buyer activation

17. 2026-04-28
    listed $392,000 Active 424-char remark

    Show marketing remark (424 chars)

    Welcome to 209 Clayton Ave, a residential property with a straightforward design ideal for everyday comfort and ease. The exterior grounds feature a fully fenced in backyard, creating a dedicated outdoor area for organized enjoyment. This functional layout supports routine activities and overall simplicity. Experience practical living and a well-defined outdoor space.. Included 100-Day Home Warranty with buyer activation

18. 2026-04-22
    soldstatus $343,400
19. 2022-09-22
    historical
20. 2022-08-25
    historical Active - Backup
21. 2022-08-06
    listed $409,900 Active
22. 2022-08-06
    historical
23. 2020-04-07
    status Pending
24. 2020-04-04
    historical
25. 2020-04-04
    historical
26. 2020-04-03
    listed $299,900 Active
27. 2020-04-03
    listed $299,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,051 · $254/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,051 · $254/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $43,261
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,670
• − Property taxes: −$3,051
• − Insurance: −$1,845
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,461
• − Management: −$3,461
• − HOA: −$480
• − Depreciation: −$10,735
• Taxable loss: −$441
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$106
• After-tax cash flow: $5,685/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Weld County School District Re-3J
• NCES district ID: 0804920
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $60,814
• Composite: 22.63/100
• National rank: #8062
• State rank: #64 of 86 in CO

Livability — Keenesburg

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #296
• US rank: #20911

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime B Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Keenesburg, CO
• City population: 4,257
• Population (ZIP): 4,257

Population outlook (Weld County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 351,957 people
• By 2030: 385,304 · +9.5%
• By 2040: 451,818 · +28.4%
• By 2050: 514,478 · +46.2%
• By 2075: 648,733 · +84.3%
• By 2100: 720,400 · +104.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 18% Two or more races 7% Native American 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 2% Romanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, South Korea, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 14%

Political lean MEDSL · Weld

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.0) · D 38.2% · R 59.2% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.2pp toward R · 2008: -8.7pp · 2024: -21.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.0 2020: R+18.0 2016: R+22.4 2012: R+13.2 2008: R+8.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -17.47%
• Current HPI: 287.5564
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.95%
• F500 in state: 14

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology Distribution	1	$31B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$18B
▸Packaging	1	$14B
▸Healthcare	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$10B
▸Technology	1	$4B

Price history

+23.0% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-28 Price Changed $369,000 IRES
• 2026-05-28 Price Changed $369,000 REColorado as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $380,000 IRES
• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $380,000 REColorado as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-28 Listed $392,000 REColorado as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-28 Listed $392,000 IRES
• 2026-04-22 Sold (Public Records) $343,400 Public Records
• 2022-09-22 Listing Removed — IRES
• 2022-08-25 Contingent — IRES
• 2022-08-06 Listed $409,900 IRES
• 2022-08-06 Coming Soon — IRES
• 2020-04-07 Pending — REColorado as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-04-04 Listing Removed — REColorado as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-04-04 Listing Removed — IRES
• 2020-04-03 Listed $299,900 IRES
• 2020-04-03 Listed $299,900 REColorado as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+128.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,051 · -16.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.