Stafford Plan · Hinesville, GA 31313

$241,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,565 sqft · SingleFamily · 1 Days on market

Good condition $30/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.9/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• DSCR +2.6/10.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The Stafford floor plan is loaded with curb appeal and always catches the eye. Ideal for any sized family, this flexible plan can have either 3 or 4 bedrooms. The open concept living area features clear sight lines from both the kitchen and breakfast area, plus an additional dining room that could be converted into the fourth bedroom. The master suite has a huge walk-in closet, plus a private bath with dual vanity, garden tub and separate shower. Artistic renderings are for informational purposes only. Actual floor plans, features and inclusions may vary.

Key facts

• 2 parking spots

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: List price $241,900
• HOA & community: Association fee approximately $30

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces
• Utilities: Electric heating (forced air); Central air conditioning
• Home design: Stafford plan; Located on Joann Lewis Ln, Hinesville, GA
• Exterior features: Asphalt roof; Living area approximately 1565

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric forced-air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Active listing (Plan: Stafford); Plan inventory type

🏗️ New construction. The $241,900 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $286,395.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $242k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-336 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $238k (1.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $228k (5.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $228k (5.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#51 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, commute D+, crime F.
• Liberty County (urban): math 19% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #133 of 174 in GA (top 76%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.4%/yr); 641 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 471 units permitted in Liberty County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,277/mo this rent would consume 45% of the median local household income ($60k/yr) (locally 1693% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Liberty County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 98% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $227,682 (5.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.41%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.15%
• DSCR: 0.86
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $286,395
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
301 Joann Lewis Ln	0.11mi	4/2.0	1,565 (0%)	16mo	$280,000	$179	82
221 Joann Lewis Ln	0.14mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,477 (-6%)	1mo	$268,900	$182	78
283 Joann Lewis Ln	0.11mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,380 (-12%)	3mo	$270,000	$196	68
125 Whipple Ave	0.60mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,544 (-1%)	9mo	$258,000	$167	58
27 Wythe St	0.73mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,475 (-6%)	12mo	$284,900	$193	41
25 Anzio Ave	0.49mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,775 (+13%)	14mo	$240,000	$135	38
223 Whipple Ave	0.57mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,374 (-12%)	14mo	$252,000	$183	37
145 Whipple Ave	0.58mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,346 (-14%)	16mo	$250,000	$186	31
14 Cohen Dr	0.75mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,423 (-9%)	18mo	$259,900	$183	30
220 Gambrell Rd	0.72mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,462 (-7%)	22mo	$255,000	$174	30
826 Marne Blvd	0.72mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,423 (-9%)	18mo	$264,000	$186	29
195 Gambrell Rd	0.75mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,462 (-7%)	24mo	$241,000	$165	27

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.41% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.23×
• Total profit: $-62,008
• Equity at exit: $42,702

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.29×
• Total profit: $-56,628
• Equity at exit: $24,762

Cash invested: $80,191 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 31313

• Home prices YoY: -27.1%
• Rents YoY: 5.4%
• Active inventory: 641
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,277 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,502
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$358 /mo · $4,296/yr
• Insurance: −$119
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$125 /mo · $1,502/yr
• HOA: −$30
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$478
• Net cashflow: $-336

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,702

Max offer price $237,814

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-138	-5% $-237	+0% $-336	+5% $-435	+10% $-534
Rent	-10% $-516	-5% $-426	+0% $-336	+5% $-246	+10% $-156
Rate	-1.0pp $-192	-0.5pp $-263	base $-336	+0.5pp $-410	+1.0pp $-485

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $71,599
• Closing costs: $8,592
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
326 Joann Lewis Ln Hinesville, GA	4.0	3.0	1793	$2,150	$1.20	44d	1	0.11mi
222 Courage Way Hinesville, GA	4.0	3.0	1984	$2,150	$1.08	44d	1	0.11mi
195 Courage Way Hinesville, GA	3.0	2.5	1746	$2,200	$1.26	44d	1	0.14mi
34 Wythe St Hinesville, GA	4.0	2.5	1978	$2,200	$1.11	44d	1	0.73mi
403 Valdez Ct Hinesville, GA	3.0	2.5	1810	$2,000	$1.10	44d	1	0.97mi
501 Burke Dr Hinesville, GA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1132	$1,891	$1.67	44d	18	1.06mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $30 · $360/yr

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-02
   remarks 561-char remark
2. 2026-06-02
   listed $241,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone A · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 98% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,322
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,043
• − Property taxes: −$4,296
• − Insurance: −$2,934
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,186
• − Management: −$2,186
• − HOA: −$360
• − Depreciation: −$8,331
• Taxable loss: −$9,014
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,163
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,865/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This Stafford floor plan is in excellent condition with new siding and roof, and a modern kitchen and bathrooms. Minor maintenance and curb appeal improvements would further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Trim landscaping — Improves curb appeal and value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Trim landscaping — Improves curb appeal and value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Liberty County
• NCES district ID: 1303300
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $43,911
• Composite: 20.2/100
• National rank: #8630
• State rank: #133 of 174 in GA

Livability — Hinesville

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #51
• US rank: #5200

Category grades

Amenities C+ Commute D+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hinesville, GA
• County: Liberty County · 58,565 people
• City population: 42,838
• Metro: Hinesville, GA
• Population (ZIP): 42,838
• Household income: $60,233
• Rent vs Own: 50.1% rent · 49.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1693.0

Population outlook (Liberty County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 58,689 people
• By 2030: 57,670 · -1.7%
• By 2040: 55,750 · -5.0%
• By 2050: 54,155 · -7.7%
• By 2075: 58,947 · +0.4%
• By 2100: 66,919 · +14.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 47% White 31% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 11% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 7%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Italian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Liberty

• 2024 margin: D (+17.4) · D 58.5% · R 41.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.9pp toward R · 2008: 28.4pp · 2024: 17.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+17.4 2020: D+24.1 2016: D+21.2 2012: D+30.2 2008: D+28.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -77.50%
• Current HPI: 208.0927
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.41%
• Metro: Hinesville, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B