34334 Countryside Dr · Wesley Chapel, FL 33543

$153,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 936 sqft · Manufactured public records · 16 Days on market

Built 1986 4,086 sqft lot Est $124k · 23% over $217/mo HOA · 13% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.9/30.0
• 1% rule +5.6/10.0
• DSCR +5.6/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

FRONT AND BACK ENCLOSED PORCHES: 2 bedroom, 2 bath, light and bright. The kitchen in this home has a closet pantry and a breakfast bar. Walk in closet in the master bedroom and walk in shower in the master bath. The roof and refrigerator were both replaced in 2021. Carport, additional parking pad and utility storage off the back porch. Comfortable GATED community with no age restriction that boasts 2 pools and 2 clubhouses. Larger pets ok here with some breed restrictions. Just a short drive to Wiregrass Town Center, grocery, home store, eateries, nail salon, gym and more! NO lot rent in this community. Golf carts ok here and the low monthly fee covers grass cutting, water, sewer, trash removal and use of all of the amenities including basketball court and playground. RV/boat storage space available for a minimal fee.

Key facts

• Gated community
• New ac system
• Clubhouse amenities

Tags

• NEW LAMINATE FLOORING
• NEW AC SYSTEM
• GATED COMMUNITY
• CLUBHOUSE AMENITIES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Partially furnished; Condo land included
• Financial info: Total monthly fees (HOA) $217; total annual fees $2,604; Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: HOA: Timber Lake Estates (monthly fee $217); HOA includes pool, private road, recreational facilities, security, sewer, and trash; Association amenities: clubhouse, pool; Association approval required; Pets allowed (dogs OK, cats OK, breed restrictions); Golf carts allowed in community

Exterior

• Parking: Carport (1 space)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Manufactured home (double wide); Residential property; One story; North-facing
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Membrane roof; Crawlspace foundation
• Exterior features: Rain gutters; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Kitchen reverse osmosis system
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room; Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $153k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $128 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $153k).
• Recommended offer: $151k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 3.7% in Wesley Chapel — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#143 in FL, #2,137 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Chester W. Taylor Jr. Elementary School (math 33% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,697 of 2,144 statewide, top 80%, 654 students, 77% FRL); Zephyrhills High School (math 35% / reading 37%, grade F, #359 of 667 statewide, top 55%, 1,656 students, 70% FRL) — zoned schools average 73% FRL vs 48% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 36% at this address vs 51% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Pasco average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.4%/yr); 638 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($151k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $150,705 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.29%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.57%
• DSCR: 1.16
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $124,488
• Comps found: 10

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
34616 Morning Glory Gln	0.33mi	2/2.0	960 (+3%)	8mo	$53,000	$55	74
34121 Tree Lake Dr	0.23mi	2/2.0	988 (+6%)	9mo	$118,000	$119	72
34313 Countryside Dr	0.06mi	2/2.0	1,040 (+11%)	16mo	$139,900	$135	66
34537 Morning Glory Gln	0.30mi	2/2.0	960 (+3%)	19mo	$140,000	$146	66
34630 Petunia Pl	0.31mi	2/2.0	864 (-8%)	10mo	$115,000	$133	65
34704 Morning Glory Gln	0.40mi	3/2.0 (+1)	888 (-5%)	6mo	$60,000	$68	63
34552 Rosebud Row	0.34mi	2/2.0	864 (-8%)	19mo	$118,000	$137	56
34645 Lily Ln	0.33mi	2/2.0	1,056 (+13%)	10mo	$127,500	$121	54
34632 Sweetpea Ln	0.33mi	2/1.0	816 (-13%)	6mo	$70,000	$86	54
34701 Morning Glory Gln	0.40mi	2/2.0	1,056 (+13%)	16mo	$165,000	$156	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.50×
• Total profit: $-21,349
• Equity at exit: $22,813

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-26,205
• Equity at exit: $13,229

Cash invested: $42,840 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33543

• Home prices YoY: -24.0%
• Rents YoY: -0.4%
• Active inventory: 638
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,627 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$802
• Tax from tax record: −$75 /mo · $898/yr
• Insurance: −$64
• HOA: −$217
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$342
• Net cashflow: $128

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,466

Max offer price $153,000

Occupancy floor 87%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,250
• Closing costs: $4,590
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3030 Beaver Creek Dr Wesley Chapel, FL	2.0	1.0	700	$950	$1.36	15d	1	0.20mi
3829 Kim Dr Wesley Chapel, FL	2.0	1.0	832	$1,395	$1.68	24d	1	0.85mi
33780 Charleston Club Cir Wesley Chapel, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	977	$2,135	$2.19	2d	11	1.05mi
33976 Lusitano Dr Wesley Chapel, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1251	$2,284	$1.82	13d	71	1.42mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $217 · $2,604/yr
• Likely covers: watersewertrashpoolgymsecurity

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $153,000 Active 16 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $153,000 Active 15 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $153,000 Active 14 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $153,000 Active 13 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $153,000 Active 11 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $153,000 Active 7 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $153,000 Active 6 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $153,000 Active 5 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $153,000 Active 2 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    remarks 699-char remark
11. 2026-06-02
    listed $153,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $898 · $75/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,270 · $106/mo
• Expected delta: +$372/yr (+$31/mo · 41.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,527
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,570
• − Property taxes: −$898
• − Insurance: −$765
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,562
• − Management: −$1,562
• − HOA: −$2,604
• − Depreciation: −$4,451
• Taxable loss: −$886
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$213
• After-tax cash flow: $1,744/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Wesley Chapel

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #143
• US rank: #2137

Category grades

Amenities C Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Wesley Chapel, FL
• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• City population: 100,771
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 40,648
• Household income: $107,349
• Rent vs Own: 14.8% rent · 85.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 407.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: White 51% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 15% Black 12% Asian 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 8% Cuban 2% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 1% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 2% Tagalog/Filipino 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -83.13%
• Current HPI: 263.2513
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.37%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+337.1% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Listed $153,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-10-19 Sold (Public Records) $144,900 Public Records
• 2023-10-16 Sold (MLS) $144,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-09-18 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-09-13 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-09-13 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-08-31 Listed $144,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-03-15 Sold (MLS) $35,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-09-12 Listed $41,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1993-12-15 Sold (Public Records) $35,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+8.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $898 · -0.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.