309 West Ave S · McComb, MS 39648

$79,500

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 912 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 8 Days on market

Built 1965 $87/sqft · at area comps Est $76k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.4/30.0
• DSCR +7.9/10.0
• 1% rule +5.9/10.0
• ARV discount +5.3/15.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Looking for a cute starter home or an investment property, this is the home for you. Located on a peaceful, dead end street, this property has a large backyard and is convenient to schools and shopping.

Key facts

• Lots of shopping
• Close to schools
• Lots of shade trees

Tags

• QUIET NEIGHBORHOOD
• LOTS OF SHADE TREES
• CLOSE TO SCHOOLS
• LOTS OF SHOPPING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $80k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $162 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($866 rent vs $80k).
• Cap rate 8.7% vs local median 6.4% in McComb — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#50 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A-; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Mccomb School District (town): math 15% / reading 16% proficiency, ranked #106 of 130 in MS (top 82%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 93% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 191 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 10 units permitted in Pike County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $550 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pike County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 5 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $79,500

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.74%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.73%
• DSCR: 1.39
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $75,769
• List price: $79,500
• Delta: 4.92%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
302 Laurel	0.53mi	2/1.0	972 (+7%)	20mo	$84,500	$87	47
507 N James Ave	0.69mi	2/1.0	1,030 (+13%)	22mo	$49,000	$48	28

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.88×
• Total profit: $-2,575
• Equity at exit: $11,854

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.50×
• Total profit: $11,020
• Equity at exit: $6,874

Cash invested: $22,260 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39648

• Active inventory: 191
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $866 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$417
• Tax from tax record: −$72 /mo · $863/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$182
• Net cashflow: $162

Break-even live

Break-even rent $661

Max offer price $79,500

Occupancy floor 76%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $207	-5% $184	+0% $162	+5% $139	+10% $117
Rent	-10% $94	-5% $128	+0% $162	+5% $196	+10% $230
Rate	-1.0pp $202	-0.5pp $182	base $162	+0.5pp $141	+1.0pp $120

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,875
• Closing costs: $2,385
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
919 25th St McComb, MS	3.0	3.0	1107	$595	$0.54	44d	1	0.83mi
1210 Parklane Rd McComb, MS	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	844	$1,171	$1.39	44d	5	0.96mi
1240 Parklane Rd McComb, MS	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	994	$836	$0.84	44d	1	1.05mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $79,500 Active 8 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $79,500 Active 6 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $79,500 Active 5 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $79,500 Active 4 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $79,500 Active 3 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   remarks 367-char remark
7. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on marketlisting id $79,500 Active 1 DOM
8. 2026-04-22
   price $79,500
9. 2025-12-02
   status Active
10. 2025-11-18
    status Pending
11. 2025-11-18
    historical
12. 2025-05-01
    listed $89,000 Active
13. 2018-10-04
    soldstatus
14. 2018-06-07
    soldstatus 203-char remark

    Show marketing remark (203 chars)

    Looking for a cute starter home or an investment property, this is the home for you. Located on a peaceful, dead end street, this property has a large backyard and is convenient to schools and shopping.

15. 2018-06-07
    soldstatus

    Show marketing remark (203 chars)

    Looking for a cute starter home or an investment property, this is the home for you. Located on a peaceful, dead end street, this property has a large backyard and is convenient to schools and shopping.

16. 2018-03-29
    listed $39,900 203-char remark

    Show marketing remark (203 chars)

    Looking for a cute starter home or an investment property, this is the home for you. Located on a peaceful, dead end street, this property has a large backyard and is convenient to schools and shopping.

17. 2018-02-23
    historical
18. 2017-08-23
    listed $44,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $863 · $72/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $863 · $72/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,388
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,453
• − Property taxes: −$863
• − Insurance: −$398
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$831
• − Management: −$831
• − Depreciation: −$2,313
• Taxable income: $699
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$168
• After-tax cash flow: $1,775/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mccomb School District
• NCES district ID: 2802880
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 16% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $29,855
• Composite: 12.26/100
• National rank: #9645
• State rank: #106 of 130 in MS

Livability — McComb

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #50
• US rank: #8347

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment F Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: McComb, MS
• Population (ZIP): 19,767

Population outlook (Pike County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 38,766 people
• By 2030: 37,874 · -2.3%
• By 2040: 35,743 · -7.8%
• By 2050: 33,276 · -14.2%
• By 2075: 26,799 · -30.9%
• By 2100: 18,562 · -52.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 64% White 32% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pike

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.8% · R 51.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.0pp toward R · 2008: 3.5pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+1.0 2016: R+0.7 2012: D+7.6 2008: D+3.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -88.61%
• Current HPI: 92.2495
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+78.7% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-13 Listed $79,500 FSBO.com
• 2026-04-22 Price Changed $79,500 MLSU
• 2025-12-02 Relisted — MLSU
• 2025-11-18 Pending — MLSU
• 2025-11-18 Listing Removed — MLSU
• 2025-05-01 Listed $89,000 MLSU
• 2018-10-04 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2018-06-07 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2018-06-07 Sold (MLS) — MLSU
• 2018-03-29 Listed $39,900 MLSU
• 2018-02-23 Listing Removed — MLSU
• 2017-08-23 Listed $44,500 MLSU

Property tax history

+0.7%/yr

Latest (2024): $863 · +1.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.