8123 Blooming Grove Rd · Jefferson, PA 17329

$184,900

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,388 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 35 Days on market

Built 1890 2.29 ac lot Est $296k · 37% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.9/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +4.6/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful house just minutes from Manheim Adventure Park and Codorus State Park!! When you enter the first floor you will be in the kitchen and dining room. The kitchen and dining room have linoleum flooring, and the kitchen has a great pantry space for storage. On the second floor, you will enter the parlor area. This space has carpeting and beautiful hardwood flooring! There are two doors in the parlor area. One of the doors leads outside to a porch and workshop area. The other door leads to the front balcony! The living room, just off the parlor, has carpting and a ceiling fan. There is also a full bathroom on the second floor. The master bedroom is located on the 2nd floor as well. The master has beautiful hardwood flooring, ceiling fan, 2 closets, and a full bathroom! There are also sliding glass doors in the master that lead to a private deck! On the third floor, there are 3 more bedrooms! All of the bedrooms have wall to wall carpeting! There is a full size attic upstairs, which is perfect for storage! There is a 1 car garage as well! This is a beautiful house and the perfect location for anyone who loves the outdoors but also being close to the shopping areas of town. This is also a great location for commuters with easy access to 30, 795, and 83.

Key facts

• 2.29 acre lot
• 4 garage spots
• Built 1890

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $185k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $0 ($0/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $165k (10.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $165k (10.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 2.5% in Jefferson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#1,242 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Southern York County SD (rural): math 39% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #168 of 539 in PA (top 31%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Friendship El Sch (math 32% / reading 52%, grade F, #883 of 1,518 statewide, top 61%, 408 students, 36% FRL); Southern Ms (math 20% / reading 54%, grade F, #298 of 512 statewide, top 60%, 441 students, 26% FRL); Susquehannock Hs (math 69% / reading 24%, grade D-, #173 of 437 statewide, top 40%, 928 students, 23% FRL).
• Market conditions: 13 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,328 units permitted in York County in 2024 (338 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $20k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $18k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $52k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($179k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask is 23% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo; built in 1890 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $165,000 (10.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 11% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1890 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.65%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.29%
• DSCR: 1.06
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $295,644
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5278 Stone Church Rd	0.69mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,252 (-10%)	15mo	$164,900	$132	34
3710 Jefferson Rd	0.74mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,260 (-9%)	22mo	$268,000	$213	27

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.95×
• Total profit: $100,744
• Equity at exit: $166,573

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.5%
• Equity multiple: 6.73×
• Total profit: $296,753
• Equity at exit: $359,220

Cash invested: $51,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 17329

• Home prices YoY: 7.8%
• Active inventory: 13
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,650 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax from tax record: −$201 /mo · $2,415/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$56 /mo · $666/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$346
• Net cashflow: $0

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,650

Max offer price $184,900

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $105	-5% $52	+0% $0	+5% $-52	+10% $-105
Rent	-10% $-130	-5% $-65	+0% $0	+5% $65	+10% $130
Rate	-1.0pp $93	-0.5pp $47	base $0	+0.5pp $-48	+1.0pp $-97

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,225
• Closing costs: $5,547
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4672 Myers Rd Glen Rock, PA	3.0	1.0	1388	$1,650	$1.19	14d	1	1.07mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-04-28
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-11
   price $184,900
3. 2026-03-11
   historical
4. 2026-02-06
   status Active
5. 2026-01-23
   historical
6. 2026-01-21
   listed $149,900 Active
7. 2023-06-21
   soldstatus $172,500
8. 2023-06-02
   soldstatus $165,000 Closed 1277-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1277 chars)

   Beautiful house just minutes from Manheim Adventure Park and Codorus State Park!! When you enter the first floor you will be in the kitchen and dining room. The kitchen and dining room have linoleum flooring, and the kitchen has a great pantry space for storage. On the second floor, you will enter the parlor area. This space has carpeting and beautiful hardwood flooring! There are two doors in the parlor area. One of the doors leads outside to a porch and workshop area. The other door leads to the front balcony! The living room, just off the parlor, has carpting and a ceiling fan. There is also a full bathroom on the second floor. The master bedroom is located on the 2nd floor as well. The master has beautiful hardwood flooring, ceiling fan, 2 closets, and a full bathroom! There are also sliding glass doors in the master that lead to a private deck! On the third floor, there are 3 more bedrooms! All of the bedrooms have wall to wall carpeting! There is a full size attic upstairs, which is perfect for storage! There is a 1 car garage as well! This is a beautiful house and the perfect location for anyone who loves the outdoors but also being close to the shopping areas of town. This is also a great location for commuters with easy access to 30, 795, and 83.

9. 2023-05-01
   status Pending 1277-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1277 chars)

   Beautiful house just minutes from Manheim Adventure Park and Codorus State Park!! When you enter the first floor you will be in the kitchen and dining room. The kitchen and dining room have linoleum flooring, and the kitchen has a great pantry space for storage. On the second floor, you will enter the parlor area. This space has carpeting and beautiful hardwood flooring! There are two doors in the parlor area. One of the doors leads outside to a porch and workshop area. The other door leads to the front balcony! The living room, just off the parlor, has carpting and a ceiling fan. There is also a full bathroom on the second floor. The master bedroom is located on the 2nd floor as well. The master has beautiful hardwood flooring, ceiling fan, 2 closets, and a full bathroom! There are also sliding glass doors in the master that lead to a private deck! On the third floor, there are 3 more bedrooms! All of the bedrooms have wall to wall carpeting! There is a full size attic upstairs, which is perfect for storage! There is a 1 car garage as well! This is a beautiful house and the perfect location for anyone who loves the outdoors but also being close to the shopping areas of town. This is also a great location for commuters with easy access to 30, 795, and 83.

10. 2023-04-28
    listed $157,500 Active 1277-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1277 chars)

    Beautiful house just minutes from Manheim Adventure Park and Codorus State Park!! When you enter the first floor you will be in the kitchen and dining room. The kitchen and dining room have linoleum flooring, and the kitchen has a great pantry space for storage. On the second floor, you will enter the parlor area. This space has carpeting and beautiful hardwood flooring! There are two doors in the parlor area. One of the doors leads outside to a porch and workshop area. The other door leads to the front balcony! The living room, just off the parlor, has carpting and a ceiling fan. There is also a full bathroom on the second floor. The master bedroom is located on the 2nd floor as well. The master has beautiful hardwood flooring, ceiling fan, 2 closets, and a full bathroom! There are also sliding glass doors in the master that lead to a private deck! On the third floor, there are 3 more bedrooms! All of the bedrooms have wall to wall carpeting! There is a full size attic upstairs, which is perfect for storage! There is a 1 car garage as well! This is a beautiful house and the perfect location for anyone who loves the outdoors but also being close to the shopping areas of town. This is also a great location for commuters with easy access to 30, 795, and 83.

11. 2023-04-26
    historical $157,500 1277-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1277 chars)

    Beautiful house just minutes from Manheim Adventure Park and Codorus State Park!! When you enter the first floor you will be in the kitchen and dining room. The kitchen and dining room have linoleum flooring, and the kitchen has a great pantry space for storage. On the second floor, you will enter the parlor area. This space has carpeting and beautiful hardwood flooring! There are two doors in the parlor area. One of the doors leads outside to a porch and workshop area. The other door leads to the front balcony! The living room, just off the parlor, has carpting and a ceiling fan. There is also a full bathroom on the second floor. The master bedroom is located on the 2nd floor as well. The master has beautiful hardwood flooring, ceiling fan, 2 closets, and a full bathroom! There are also sliding glass doors in the master that lead to a private deck! On the third floor, there are 3 more bedrooms! All of the bedrooms have wall to wall carpeting! There is a full size attic upstairs, which is perfect for storage! There is a 1 car garage as well! This is a beautiful house and the perfect location for anyone who loves the outdoors but also being close to the shopping areas of town. This is also a great location for commuters with easy access to 30, 795, and 83.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,415 · $201/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,668 · $222/mo
• Expected delta: +$253/yr (+$21/mo · 10.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 11% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,800
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,357
• − Property taxes: −$2,415
• − Insurance: −$1,591
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,584
• − Management: −$1,584
• − Depreciation: −$5,379
• Taxable loss: −$3,110
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$746
• After-tax cash flow: $747/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Southern York County SD
• NCES district ID: 4222380
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 58% ▼ -15.00%
• Median HH income: $70,881
• Composite: 43.46/100
• National rank: #3005
• State rank: #168 of 539 in PA

Livability — Jefferson

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #1242
• US rank: #14897

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 152
• Population (ZIP): 3,229

Population outlook (York County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 454,205 people
• By 2030: 457,407 · +0.7%
• By 2040: 457,529 · +0.7%
• By 2050: 448,261 · -1.3%
• By 2075: 427,388 · -5.9%
• By 2100: 384,218 · -15.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 2% Serbian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 0%

Political lean MEDSL · York

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.3) · D 36.9% · R 62.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.7pp toward R · 2008: -13.6pp · 2024: -25.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.3 2020: R+24.6 2016: R+29.3 2012: R+21.2 2008: R+13.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 20.72%
• Current HPI: 286.965
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+17.4% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-11 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-11 Price Changed $184,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-02-06 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-01-23 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-01-21 Listed $149,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2023-06-21 Sold (Public Records) $172,500 Public Records
• 2023-06-02 Sold (MLS) $165,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2023-05-01 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2023-04-28 Listed $157,500 BRIGHT MLS
• 2023-04-26 Coming Soon $157,500 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

+1.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,415 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.