945 Ellicott Dr · Baltimore, MD 21216

$64,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 840 sqft · Townhouse public records · 54 Days on market

Built 1950 1,307 sqft lot $77/sqft · 11% below area Est $73k · 11% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +12.7/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Dont miss this bank owned property. Great for fix and flip or fix and hold.

Key facts

• Built 1950
• Listed 54 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath townhouse listed at $65k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $670 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $65k).
• Recommended offer: $63k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 18.7% vs local median 6.0% in Baltimore — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#90 in MD, #3,396 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Baltimore City Public Schools (urban): math 7% / reading 16% proficiency, ranked #24 of 24 in MD (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 79% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.1%/yr); 252 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 48% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 1,273 units permitted in Baltimore city in 2024 (1,104 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 44% of the median local income ($42k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $449 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Baltimore County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.1% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 54 days — a 3% lower offer ($63k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $43k; 50% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.2% of price; built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $62,953 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 54 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.36% ✓
• Cap rate: 18.68%
• Cash-on-cash: 44.22%
• DSCR: 2.97
• GRM: 3.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $73,307
• List price: $64,900
• Delta: -11.47%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2863 W Lanvale St	0.23mi	2/1.0 (-1)	864 (+3%)	3mo	$56,000	$65	77
3005 Harlem Ave	0.20mi	2/2.0 (-1)	912 (+9%)	3mo	$50,000	$55	65
3019 Harlem Ave	0.19mi	2/2.0 (-1)	912 (+9%)	7mo	$91,700	$101	62
335 N Grantley St	0.63mi	2/2.0 (-1)	840 (0%)	2mo	$85,000	$101	61
914 Whitmore Ave	0.56mi	2/2.0 (-1)	840 (0%)	9mo	$182,000	$217	58
2511 Riggs Ave	0.62mi	3/1.0	896 (+7%)	7mo	$116,500	$130	54
3302 W Franklin St	0.44mi	3/1.0	960 (+14%)	2mo	$50,000	$52	54
910 N Dukeland St	0.30mi	2/1.0 (-1)	960 (+14%)	4mo	$31,000	$32	54
2507 Riggs Ave	0.62mi	2/1.0 (-1)	896 (+7%)	4mo	$45,100	$50	52
3306 W Franklin St	0.44mi	3/2.0	960 (+14%)	1mo	$51,500	$54	50
2534 W Franklin St	0.68mi	3/1.0	928 (+10%)	5mo	$24,000	$26	46
2528 W Franklin St	0.69mi	3/2.0	958 (+14%)	9mo	$50,000	$52	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.1% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 45.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.04×
• Total profit: $37,136
• Equity at exit: $9,677

10-year hold

• IRR: 52.4%
• Equity multiple: 7.00×
• Total profit: $109,104
• Equity at exit: $5,611

Cash invested: $18,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 12 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City Baltimore: 12 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+58

Just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21216

• Rents YoY: 6.1%
• Active inventory: 252
• Price-to-rent: 3.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,530 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$340
• Tax from tax record: −$172 /mo · $2,064/yr
• Insurance: −$27
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$321
• Net cashflow: $670

Break-even live

Break-even rent $683

Max offer price $64,900

Occupancy floor 51%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $706	-5% $688	+0% $670	+5% $651	+10% $633
Rent	-10% $549	-5% $609	+0% $670	+5% $730	+10% $791
Rate	-1.0pp $702	-0.5pp $686	base $670	+0.5pp $653	+1.0pp $636

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $16,225
• Closing costs: $1,947
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1042 Ellicott Dr Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	900	$1,450	$1.61	44d	1	0.17mi
709 Denison St Baltimore, MD	2.0	2.0	840	$1,630	$1.94	24d	1	0.30mi
787 N Grantley St Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1116	$1,575	$1.41	24d	1	0.34mi
2815 W Mulberry St Baltimore, MD	4.0	2.0	1040	$2,050	$1.97	44d	1	0.50mi
3127 Baker St Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,300	$1.30	44d	1	0.53mi
3706 W Franklin St Unit 1 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	735	$1,100	$1.50	5d	1	0.65mi
3607 W Lexington St Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1050	$1,895	$1.80	5d	1	0.69mi
3003 W North Ave Baltimore, MD	1.0–2.0	1.0	841	$935	$1.11	2d	3	0.75mi
3310 Elbert St Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	920	$1,550	$1.68	24d	1	0.78mi
1307 Wildwood Pkwy Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	725	$1,295	$1.79	44d	1	0.80mi
2301 Riggs Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1072	$1,600	$1.49	24d	1	0.82mi
4103 Mountwood Rd Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1030	$1,700	$1.65	44d	1	0.84mi
4103 Stokes Dr Apt 1 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	725	$1,095	$1.51	44d	1	0.88mi
1216 N Augusta Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1024	$1,550	$1.51	24d	1	0.90mi
2636 W North Ave Baltimore, MD	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	975	$1,475	$1.51	5d	1	0.92mi
1617 Moreland Ave Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	900	$1,450	$1.61	24d	1	0.95mi
2516 Hollins St Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,700	$1.55	44d	1	1.00mi
3017 Poplar Ter Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	880	$1,349	$1.53	24d	1	1.01mi
62 N Gorman Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1100	$2,500	$2.27	18d	1	1.02mi
3514 Clifton Ave Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	925	$1,199	$1.30	44d	1	1.02mi
3514 Clifton Ave Unit 21 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	925	$1,150	$1.24	44d	1	1.02mi
3407 Elgin Ave Unit 5 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	800	$1,250	$1.56	44d	1	1.08mi
332 S Franklintown Rd Unit 2 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	776	$795	$1.02	24d	1	1.20mi
2540 Frederick Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1075	$1,400	$1.30	24d	1	1.22mi
4018 Massachusetts Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1050	$1,400	$1.33	24d	1	1.25mi
2 S Woodington Rd Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	856	$1,160	$1.36	15d	1	1.27mi
2 N Woodington Rd Baltimore, MD	1.0–2.0	1.0	738	$1,335	$1.81	3d	5	1.27mi
2220 Lyndhurst Ave Unit 1 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	900	$1,175	$1.31	24d	1	1.30mi
1722 N Monroe St Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1000	$1,350	$1.35	24d	1	1.32mi
1918 W Baltimore St Baltimore, MD	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	857	$1,434	$1.67	44d	1	1.33mi
4520 Scarlet Oak Ln Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	1025	$1,500	$1.46	44d	1	1.33mi
1930 N Payson St Baltimore, MD	2.0	2.0	980	$1,500	$1.53	24d	1	1.34mi
2657 Lehman St Unit 1 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	1056	$1,000	$0.95	44d	1	1.36mi
2742 N Rosedale St Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1024	$1,350	$1.32	44d	2	1.38mi
2738 N Longwood St Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1024	$1,399	$1.37	44d	1	1.39mi
3416 Alto Rd Unit 21 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	700	$1,175	$1.68	44d	1	1.39mi
2601 Garrison Blvd Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	750	$1,175	$1.57	22d	2	1.40mi
3001 Carlisle Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1024	$1,300	$1.27	44d	1	1.40mi
2601 Fairview Ave Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	700	$1,099	$1.57	44d	1	1.41mi
304 Collins Ave Unit 2 Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1016	$2,100	$2.07	44d	1	1.41mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $64,900 Active 54 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $64,900 Active 53 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $64,900 Active 52 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $64,900 Active 51 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $64,900 Active 49 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $64,900 Active 45 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $64,900 Active 44 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $64,900 Active 43 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $64,900 Active 40 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $64,900 Active 39 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $64,900 Active 38 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $64,900 Active 37 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $64,900 Active 36 DOM
14. 2026-04-29
    status Active 75-char remark

    Show marketing remark (75 chars)

    Dont miss this bank owned property. Great for fix and flip or fix and hold.

15. 2026-03-20
    status Pending 75-char remark

    Show marketing remark (75 chars)

    Dont miss this bank owned property. Great for fix and flip or fix and hold.

16. 2026-03-16
    listed $64,900 Active 75-char remark

    Show marketing remark (75 chars)

    Dont miss this bank owned property. Great for fix and flip or fix and hold.

17. 2026-02-22
    historical
18. 2025-12-29
    price $64,900
19. 2025-11-25
    price $74,900
20. 2025-10-10
    listed $79,900 Active
21. 1996-05-30
    soldstatus $43,400
22. 1996-01-16
    soldstatus $43,400

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,064 · $172/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,064 · $172/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,365
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,635
• − Property taxes: −$2,064
• − Insurance: −$324
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,469
• − Management: −$1,469
• − Depreciation: −$1,888
• Taxable income: $7,515
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,804
• After-tax cash flow: $6,232/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Baltimore City Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400090
• Math proficiency: 7% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 16% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $42,108
• Composite: 10.08/100
• National rank: #9805
• State rank: #24 of 24 in MD

Livability — Baltimore

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #90
• US rank: #3396

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A- Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Baltimore, MD
• County: Baltimore City · 558,601 people
• City population: 588,727
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• Population (ZIP): 29,426
• Household income: $42,031
• Rent vs Own: 49.8% rent · 50.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 2264.0

Population outlook (Baltimore County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 624,249 people
• By 2030: 621,541 · -0.4%
• By 2040: 609,756 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 597,249 · -4.3%
• By 2075: 552,236 · -11.5%
• By 2100: 513,934 · -17.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 91% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 3% White 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Baltimore

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+73.0) · D 85.2% · R 12.2% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.5pp toward R · 2008: 75.5pp · 2024: 73.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+73.0 2020: D+76.6 2016: D+74.6 2012: D+76.4 2008: D+75.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -107.42%
• Current HPI: 164.3933
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.10%
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

+49.5% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-29 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-20 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-16 Listed $64,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-02-22 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-12-29 Price Changed $64,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-11-25 Price Changed $74,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-10-10 Listed $79,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 1996-05-30 Sold (Public Records) $43,400 Public Records
• 1996-01-16 Sold (Public Records) $43,400 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,064 · +43.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.