535 Bay Home Rd · Southold, NY 11971

$1,499,000

3 bd · 4.0 ba · 2,900 sqft · SingleFamily · 233 Days on market

Built 2026 0.37 ac lot $517/sqft · 8% below area Est $1638k · 8% under $33/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.7/30.0
• ARV discount +11.3/15.0
• DSCR +7.6/10.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Waterfront Opportunity on Bay Home Road. Welcome to 535 Bay Home Road, a rare and flexible offering on one of the North Fork’s most coveted canal-front streets, located in the prestigious Willow Point community. With panoramic water views, a private dock, and access to a secluded beach, this property combines timeless coastal charm with modern luxury. Buyers can choose from two exclusive paths to own this exceptional property: Option 1: New Construction Package – $3,300,000 Partner with the highly regarded North Fork Building Company to create a custom 2,900 sq ft modern waterfront home, expertly designed to showcase water views and deliver a luxurious coastal lifestyle. Planned Features Include: 3 en suite bedrooms, additional full bath off the mudroom, main-floor flex room (ideal for a 4th bedroom, home office, or den), Heated waterside pool, covered outdoor living room with kitchen and wood-burning fireplace, private dock + floating swim dock, detached two-car garage with unfinished attic space and breezeway. Interior Highlights: Gourmet kitchen with custom cabinetry, quartz countertops, Thermador appliances, gas fireplace in the living room with custom built-in bookcases, 10’ ceilings on the main level, 9’ ceilings upstairs, white oak flooring throughout, Kohler fixtures, Andersen windows, and recessed lighting. Custom molding package, Walk-in closets in all bedrooms and upstairs laundry room. With final plan approvals nearing completion and permits ready to issue, now is the ideal time to customize your finishes and build your North Fork dream home. Option 2: Purchase As-Is with Approved Plans – $1,499,000 Prefer to build on your own schedule or with your own team? The existing home is also available as-is . This includes: Fully approved architectural plans, ready-to-issue building permits, .37-acre lot on a quiet canal with private dock. Prime opportunity to invest in a trophy location with a head start on construction. Whether you're ready to break ground now or planning for the future, 535 Bay Home Road is a rare chance to own one of the North Fork’s most prestigious waterfront streets — just steps to a private beach and directly across from a scenic vineyard.

Key facts

• 0.37 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $1.50M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $3k ($34k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($16k rent vs $1.50M).
• Recommended offer: $1.32M (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.6% vs local median 6.9% in Southold — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#583 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, schools A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Southold Union Free School District (town): math 46% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #298 of 590 in NY (top 50%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 79 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 80% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $10k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $45k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 233 days — a 12% lower offer ($1.32M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $1.80M (55%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $1.25M; 19% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $1,319,120 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 233 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.58%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.17%
• DSCR: 1.36
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $1,638,156
• List price: $1,499,000
• Delta: -8.49%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 15 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1955 Laurel Ave	0.47mi	3/3.5	3,210 (+11%)	4mo	$2,400,000	$748	55
2215 Laurel Ave	0.52mi	3/3.5	3,210 (+11%)	8mo	$2,400,000	$748	49
1830 Laurel Ave	0.44mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,700 (-7%)	18mo	$1,325,000	$491	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.85×
• Total profit: $-61,148
• Equity at exit: $223,506

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.43×
• Total profit: $179,921
• Equity at exit: $129,606

Cash invested: $419,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11971

• Home prices YoY: -15.8%
• Active inventory: 79
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $15,601 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$7,861
• Tax from tax record: −$947 /mo · $11,367/yr
• Insurance: −$625
• HOA: −$33
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$3,276
• Net cashflow: $2,859

Break-even live

Break-even rent $11,982

Max offer price $1,499,000

Occupancy floor 77%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $374,750
• Closing costs: $44,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
275 Maier Pl Southold, NY	3.0	2.0	2000	$10,000	$5.00	43d	1	0.85mi
950 Blue Marlin Dr Southold, NY	4.0	4.0	3200	$20,000	$6.25	43d	1	0.94mi
3400 Youngs Ave Southold, NY	4.0	2.0	2000	$7,500	$3.75	43d	1	1.21mi
750 Kerwin Blvd Greenport, NY	4.0	4.0	3200	$11,200	$3.50	24d	1	1.28mi
365 Chablis Path Southold, NY	4.0	3.5	3800	$30,000	$7.89	43d	1	1.36mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $33 · $396/yr
• Likely covers: watergaspool

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $1,499,000 Active 233 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $1,499,000 Active 232 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $1,499,000 Active 231 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $1,499,000 Active 230 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $1,499,000 Active 228 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $1,499,000 Active 227 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $1,499,000 Active 224 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $1,499,000 Active 223 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $1,499,000 Active 222 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $1,499,000 Active 221 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $1,499,000 Active 218 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $1,499,000 Active 217 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $1,499,000 Active 216 DOM
14. 2026-04-22
    status Active 2257-char remark

    Show marketing remark (2257 chars)

    Waterfront Opportunity on Bay Home Road. Welcome to 535 Bay Home Road, a rare and flexible offering on one of the North Fork’s most coveted canal-front streets, located in the prestigious Willow Point community. With panoramic water views, a private dock, and access to a secluded beach, this property combines timeless coastal charm with modern luxury. Buyers can choose from two exclusive paths to own this exceptional property: Option 1: New Construction Package – $3,300,000 Partner with the highly regarded North Fork Building Company to create a custom 2,900 sq ft modern waterfront home, expertly designed to showcase water views and deliver a luxurious coastal lifestyle. Planned Features Include: 3 en suite bedrooms, additional full bath off the mudroom, main-floor flex room (ideal for a 4th bedroom, home office, or den), Heated waterside pool, covered outdoor living room with kitchen and wood-burning fireplace, private dock + floating swim dock, detached two-car garage with unfinished attic space and breezeway. Interior Highlights: Gourmet kitchen with custom cabinetry, quartz countertops, Thermador appliances, gas fireplace in the living room with custom built-in bookcases, 10’ ceilings on the main level, 9’ ceilings upstairs, white oak flooring throughout, Kohler fixtures, Andersen windows, and recessed lighting. Custom molding package, Walk-in closets in all bedrooms and upstairs laundry room. With final plan approvals nearing completion and permits ready to issue, now is the ideal time to customize your finishes and build your North Fork dream home. Option 2: Purchase As-Is with Approved Plans – $1,499,000 Prefer to build on your own schedule or with your own team? The existing home is also available as-is . This includes: Fully approved architectural plans, ready-to-issue building permits, .37-acre lot on a quiet canal with private dock. Prime opportunity to invest in a trophy location with a head start on construction. Whether you're ready to break ground now or planning for the future, 535 Bay Home Road is a rare chance to own one of the North Fork’s most prestigious waterfront streets — just steps to a private beach and directly across from a scenic vineyard.

15. 2026-04-15
    historical 2257-char remark

    Show marketing remark (2257 chars)

    Waterfront Opportunity on Bay Home Road. Welcome to 535 Bay Home Road, a rare and flexible offering on one of the North Fork’s most coveted canal-front streets, located in the prestigious Willow Point community. With panoramic water views, a private dock, and access to a secluded beach, this property combines timeless coastal charm with modern luxury. Buyers can choose from two exclusive paths to own this exceptional property: Option 1: New Construction Package – $3,300,000 Partner with the highly regarded North Fork Building Company to create a custom 2,900 sq ft modern waterfront home, expertly designed to showcase water views and deliver a luxurious coastal lifestyle. Planned Features Include: 3 en suite bedrooms, additional full bath off the mudroom, main-floor flex room (ideal for a 4th bedroom, home office, or den), Heated waterside pool, covered outdoor living room with kitchen and wood-burning fireplace, private dock + floating swim dock, detached two-car garage with unfinished attic space and breezeway. Interior Highlights: Gourmet kitchen with custom cabinetry, quartz countertops, Thermador appliances, gas fireplace in the living room with custom built-in bookcases, 10’ ceilings on the main level, 9’ ceilings upstairs, white oak flooring throughout, Kohler fixtures, Andersen windows, and recessed lighting. Custom molding package, Walk-in closets in all bedrooms and upstairs laundry room. With final plan approvals nearing completion and permits ready to issue, now is the ideal time to customize your finishes and build your North Fork dream home. Option 2: Purchase As-Is with Approved Plans – $1,499,000 Prefer to build on your own schedule or with your own team? The existing home is also available as-is . This includes: Fully approved architectural plans, ready-to-issue building permits, .37-acre lot on a quiet canal with private dock. Prime opportunity to invest in a trophy location with a head start on construction. Whether you're ready to break ground now or planning for the future, 535 Bay Home Road is a rare chance to own one of the North Fork’s most prestigious waterfront streets — just steps to a private beach and directly across from a scenic vineyard.

16. 2025-11-05
    price $1,499,000 2257-char remark

    Show marketing remark (2257 chars)

    Waterfront Opportunity on Bay Home Road. Welcome to 535 Bay Home Road, a rare and flexible offering on one of the North Fork’s most coveted canal-front streets, located in the prestigious Willow Point community. With panoramic water views, a private dock, and access to a secluded beach, this property combines timeless coastal charm with modern luxury. Buyers can choose from two exclusive paths to own this exceptional property: Option 1: New Construction Package – $3,300,000 Partner with the highly regarded North Fork Building Company to create a custom 2,900 sq ft modern waterfront home, expertly designed to showcase water views and deliver a luxurious coastal lifestyle. Planned Features Include: 3 en suite bedrooms, additional full bath off the mudroom, main-floor flex room (ideal for a 4th bedroom, home office, or den), Heated waterside pool, covered outdoor living room with kitchen and wood-burning fireplace, private dock + floating swim dock, detached two-car garage with unfinished attic space and breezeway. Interior Highlights: Gourmet kitchen with custom cabinetry, quartz countertops, Thermador appliances, gas fireplace in the living room with custom built-in bookcases, 10’ ceilings on the main level, 9’ ceilings upstairs, white oak flooring throughout, Kohler fixtures, Andersen windows, and recessed lighting. Custom molding package, Walk-in closets in all bedrooms and upstairs laundry room. With final plan approvals nearing completion and permits ready to issue, now is the ideal time to customize your finishes and build your North Fork dream home. Option 2: Purchase As-Is with Approved Plans – $1,499,000 Prefer to build on your own schedule or with your own team? The existing home is also available as-is . This includes: Fully approved architectural plans, ready-to-issue building permits, .37-acre lot on a quiet canal with private dock. Prime opportunity to invest in a trophy location with a head start on construction. Whether you're ready to break ground now or planning for the future, 535 Bay Home Road is a rare chance to own one of the North Fork’s most prestigious waterfront streets — just steps to a private beach and directly across from a scenic vineyard.

17. 2025-10-28
    price $1,550,000 2257-char remark

    Show marketing remark (2257 chars)

    Waterfront Opportunity on Bay Home Road. Welcome to 535 Bay Home Road, a rare and flexible offering on one of the North Fork’s most coveted canal-front streets, located in the prestigious Willow Point community. With panoramic water views, a private dock, and access to a secluded beach, this property combines timeless coastal charm with modern luxury. Buyers can choose from two exclusive paths to own this exceptional property: Option 1: New Construction Package – $3,300,000 Partner with the highly regarded North Fork Building Company to create a custom 2,900 sq ft modern waterfront home, expertly designed to showcase water views and deliver a luxurious coastal lifestyle. Planned Features Include: 3 en suite bedrooms, additional full bath off the mudroom, main-floor flex room (ideal for a 4th bedroom, home office, or den), Heated waterside pool, covered outdoor living room with kitchen and wood-burning fireplace, private dock + floating swim dock, detached two-car garage with unfinished attic space and breezeway. Interior Highlights: Gourmet kitchen with custom cabinetry, quartz countertops, Thermador appliances, gas fireplace in the living room with custom built-in bookcases, 10’ ceilings on the main level, 9’ ceilings upstairs, white oak flooring throughout, Kohler fixtures, Andersen windows, and recessed lighting. Custom molding package, Walk-in closets in all bedrooms and upstairs laundry room. With final plan approvals nearing completion and permits ready to issue, now is the ideal time to customize your finishes and build your North Fork dream home. Option 2: Purchase As-Is with Approved Plans – $1,499,000 Prefer to build on your own schedule or with your own team? The existing home is also available as-is . This includes: Fully approved architectural plans, ready-to-issue building permits, .37-acre lot on a quiet canal with private dock. Prime opportunity to invest in a trophy location with a head start on construction. Whether you're ready to break ground now or planning for the future, 535 Bay Home Road is a rare chance to own one of the North Fork’s most prestigious waterfront streets — just steps to a private beach and directly across from a scenic vineyard.

18. 2025-10-20
    listed $3,300,000 Active 2257-char remark

    Show marketing remark (2257 chars)

    Waterfront Opportunity on Bay Home Road. Welcome to 535 Bay Home Road, a rare and flexible offering on one of the North Fork’s most coveted canal-front streets, located in the prestigious Willow Point community. With panoramic water views, a private dock, and access to a secluded beach, this property combines timeless coastal charm with modern luxury. Buyers can choose from two exclusive paths to own this exceptional property: Option 1: New Construction Package – $3,300,000 Partner with the highly regarded North Fork Building Company to create a custom 2,900 sq ft modern waterfront home, expertly designed to showcase water views and deliver a luxurious coastal lifestyle. Planned Features Include: 3 en suite bedrooms, additional full bath off the mudroom, main-floor flex room (ideal for a 4th bedroom, home office, or den), Heated waterside pool, covered outdoor living room with kitchen and wood-burning fireplace, private dock + floating swim dock, detached two-car garage with unfinished attic space and breezeway. Interior Highlights: Gourmet kitchen with custom cabinetry, quartz countertops, Thermador appliances, gas fireplace in the living room with custom built-in bookcases, 10’ ceilings on the main level, 9’ ceilings upstairs, white oak flooring throughout, Kohler fixtures, Andersen windows, and recessed lighting. Custom molding package, Walk-in closets in all bedrooms and upstairs laundry room. With final plan approvals nearing completion and permits ready to issue, now is the ideal time to customize your finishes and build your North Fork dream home. Option 2: Purchase As-Is with Approved Plans – $1,499,000 Prefer to build on your own schedule or with your own team? The existing home is also available as-is . This includes: Fully approved architectural plans, ready-to-issue building permits, .37-acre lot on a quiet canal with private dock. Prime opportunity to invest in a trophy location with a head start on construction. Whether you're ready to break ground now or planning for the future, 535 Bay Home Road is a rare chance to own one of the North Fork’s most prestigious waterfront streets — just steps to a private beach and directly across from a scenic vineyard.

19. 2025-10-15
    historical $3,300,000 2257-char remark

    Show marketing remark (2257 chars)

    Waterfront Opportunity on Bay Home Road. Welcome to 535 Bay Home Road, a rare and flexible offering on one of the North Fork’s most coveted canal-front streets, located in the prestigious Willow Point community. With panoramic water views, a private dock, and access to a secluded beach, this property combines timeless coastal charm with modern luxury. Buyers can choose from two exclusive paths to own this exceptional property: Option 1: New Construction Package – $3,300,000 Partner with the highly regarded North Fork Building Company to create a custom 2,900 sq ft modern waterfront home, expertly designed to showcase water views and deliver a luxurious coastal lifestyle. Planned Features Include: 3 en suite bedrooms, additional full bath off the mudroom, main-floor flex room (ideal for a 4th bedroom, home office, or den), Heated waterside pool, covered outdoor living room with kitchen and wood-burning fireplace, private dock + floating swim dock, detached two-car garage with unfinished attic space and breezeway. Interior Highlights: Gourmet kitchen with custom cabinetry, quartz countertops, Thermador appliances, gas fireplace in the living room with custom built-in bookcases, 10’ ceilings on the main level, 9’ ceilings upstairs, white oak flooring throughout, Kohler fixtures, Andersen windows, and recessed lighting. Custom molding package, Walk-in closets in all bedrooms and upstairs laundry room. With final plan approvals nearing completion and permits ready to issue, now is the ideal time to customize your finishes and build your North Fork dream home. Option 2: Purchase As-Is with Approved Plans – $1,499,000 Prefer to build on your own schedule or with your own team? The existing home is also available as-is . This includes: Fully approved architectural plans, ready-to-issue building permits, .37-acre lot on a quiet canal with private dock. Prime opportunity to invest in a trophy location with a head start on construction. Whether you're ready to break ground now or planning for the future, 535 Bay Home Road is a rare chance to own one of the North Fork’s most prestigious waterfront streets — just steps to a private beach and directly across from a scenic vineyard.

20. 2024-02-01
    soldstatus $1,255,000
21. 2023-12-13
    soldstatus $1,255,000 Closed 538-char remark

    Show marketing remark (538 chars)

    Southold - Canal Front - Unique opportunity to transform this 1970's home into your North Fork Retreat Situated on Budd's Pond Canal in Willow Point - enter through the foyer into light filled living room with brick fireplace, formal dining area, kitchen with glass doors leading to deck, spacious lawn area, floating dock with direct bay access and a non functioning in ground pool. Bedroom, bath andoffice on first level. Stairs leading to finished dormer with large open area, bedroom and bath., Additional information: Appearance:Fair

22. 2023-09-08
    status Pending 538-char remark

    Show marketing remark (538 chars)

    Southold - Canal Front - Unique opportunity to transform this 1970's home into your North Fork Retreat Situated on Budd's Pond Canal in Willow Point - enter through the foyer into light filled living room with brick fireplace, formal dining area, kitchen with glass doors leading to deck, spacious lawn area, floating dock with direct bay access and a non functioning in ground pool. Bedroom, bath andoffice on first level. Stairs leading to finished dormer with large open area, bedroom and bath., Additional information: Appearance:Fair

23. 2023-08-20
    listed $1,200,000 Active 538-char remark

    Show marketing remark (538 chars)

    Southold - Canal Front - Unique opportunity to transform this 1970's home into your North Fork Retreat Situated on Budd's Pond Canal in Willow Point - enter through the foyer into light filled living room with brick fireplace, formal dining area, kitchen with glass doors leading to deck, spacious lawn area, floating dock with direct bay access and a non functioning in ground pool. Bedroom, bath andoffice on first level. Stairs leading to finished dormer with large open area, bedroom and bath., Additional information: Appearance:Fair

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $11,367 · $947/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $18,350 · $1,529/mo
• Expected delta: +$6,983/yr (+$582/mo · 61.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (shaded) · 60% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $187,206
• − Mortgage interest: −$83,967
• − Property taxes: −$11,367
• − Insurance: −$7,495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$14,977
• − Management: −$14,977
• − HOA: −$396
• − Depreciation: −$43,607
• Taxable income: $10,420
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,501
• After-tax cash flow: $31,803/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Southold Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3627620
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▲ 6.00%
• Median HH income: $78,622
• Composite: 47.54/100
• National rank: #2269
• State rank: #298 of 590 in NY

Livability — Southold

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #583
• US rank: #10545

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing C Health & safety B+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Southold, NY
• City population: 6,507
• Population (ZIP): 6,507

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 5% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 1% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Italian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, China, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 11% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -74.14%
• Current HPI: 396.5481
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+24.9% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-15 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-05 Price Changed $1,499,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-28 Price Changed $1,550,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-20 Listed $3,300,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-15 Coming Soon $3,300,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-02-01 Sold (Public Records) $1,255,000 Public Records
• 2023-12-13 Sold (MLS) $1,255,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-09-08 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-08-20 Listed $1,200,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+3.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $11,367 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.