474 Lake Murex Cir · Sanibel, FL 33957

$725,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,400 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 167 Days on market

Built 1983 0.28 ac lot $8/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

NEW, NEW, NEW! This property has been renovated and remodeled from the inside out!. This beautiful updated house in the desirous Lake Murex neighborhood is a short walk to the beach. It boasts beautiful tile flooring in the living areas and 3rd bedroom/den and carpet in the master bedroom and 2nd bedroom. The bright and open kitchen with quartz counters, white cabinets and stainless appliances flows to the open living/dining area. Sliders to the new 900 sq ft deck will be the center of all your entertaining. Bonus: there is still room for a pool! All new impact windows, doors, wiring, plumbing, HVAC, appliances and hardi-board siding - move in and you're done!

Key facts

• Minutes from beaches
• Large private lot
• Bike paths

Tags

• ELEVATED CONSTRUCTION
• LARGE PRIVATE LOT
• LUSH TROPICAL LANDSCAPING
• UNDER-HOME PARKING AND STORAGE
• MINUTES FROM BEACHES
• BIKE PATHS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot is approximately 0.281 acres; Irrigation: central; View: see remarks; Single-level (1 floor) dwelling; One unit in the building/complex
• HOA & community: Mandatory HOA; Annual master HOA fee of $100; Community amenities include beach access, bike and jog path, extra storage, and guest room; Non-gated community

Exterior

• Parking: Detached 1-car garage; Attached 2-space carport
• Utilities: Central water; Central sewer; Cable available
• Home design: Residential single-family home on stilts (elevated); Built in 1983; Rear exposure faces south; Located in the Lake Murex development
• Construction: Vinyl siding exterior; Shingle roof; Elevated construction
• Exterior features: Deck; Patio; Room for pool; Storage

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric cooktop; Self-cleaning oven; Microwave; Dishwasher; Disposal; Refrigerator; Freezer; Ice maker (stand-alone); Grill (gas)
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Master bath with combo tub and shower and separate shower options
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heat; Central electric cooling
• Interior features: Built-in cabinets; Smoke detectors; Dining area can serve as formal dining or living/dining combination; Guest room; Open porch/lanai
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry in residence

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $725k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $8k ($92k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($16k rent vs $725k).
• Recommended offer: $638k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 19.7% vs local median 3.8% in Sanibel — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#541 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, employment A+; Watch: housing D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Lee (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #42 of 73 in FL (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 526 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 15,411 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (4,686 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $5k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $22k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lee County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $203k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 167 days — a 12% lower offer ($638k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $638,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 167 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.26% ✓
• Cap rate: 19.72%
• Cash-on-cash: 47.95%
• DSCR: 3.13
• GRM: 3.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 42.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.83×
• Total profit: $372,330
• Equity at exit: $108,100

10-year hold

• IRR: 48.7%
• Equity multiple: 5.71×
• Total profit: $955,990
• Equity at exit: $62,685

Cash invested: $203,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33957

• Home prices YoY: -15.7%
• Active inventory: 526
• Price-to-rent: 3.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $16,349 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,802
• Tax from tax record: −$693 /mo · $8,312/yr
• Insurance: −$302
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$8
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$3,433
• Net cashflow: $7,684

Break-even live

Break-even rent $6,622

Max offer price $725,000

Occupancy floor 48%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $8,095	-5% $7,890	+0% $7,684	+5% $7,479	+10% $7,274
Rent	-10% $6,393	-5% $7,039	+0% $7,684	+5% $8,330	+10% $8,976
Rate	-1.0pp $8,050	-0.5pp $7,869	base $7,684	+0.5pp $7,497	+1.0pp $7,305

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $181,250
• Closing costs: $21,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
707 Durion Ct Sanibel, FL	3.0	2.5	1306	$12,000	$9.19	24d	1	1.11mi
2445 W Gulf Dr Unit 47B Sanibel, FL	2.0	2.0	1243	$20,000	$16.09	24d	1	1.26mi
2445 W Gulf Dr Unit 32E Sanibel, FL	2.0	2.0	1243	$18,000	$14.48	24d	1	1.34mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $8 · $96/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-17
   days on market $725,000 Active 167 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   days on market $725,000 Active 166 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $725,000 Active 165 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $725,000 Active 163 DOM
5. 2026-06-10
   days on market $725,000 Active 160 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $725,000 Active 159 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $725,000 Active 157 DOM
8. 2026-06-02
   days on market $725,000 Active 152 DOM
9. 2026-06-01
   days on market $725,000 Active 151 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $725,000 Active 150 DOM
11. 2026-04-07
    price $725,000
12. 2026-01-01
    listed $750,000 Active
13. 2018-04-17
    soldstatus $655,000
14. 2018-04-06
    soldstatus $655,000 Sold 668-char remark

    Show marketing remark (668 chars)

    NEW, NEW, NEW! This property has been renovated and remodeled from the inside out!. This beautiful updated house in the desirous Lake Murex neighborhood is a short walk to the beach. It boasts beautiful tile flooring in the living areas and 3rd bedroom/den and carpet in the master bedroom and 2nd bedroom. The bright and open kitchen with quartz counters, white cabinets and stainless appliances flows to the open living/dining area. Sliders to the new 900 sq ft deck will be the center of all your entertaining. Bonus: there is still room for a pool! All new impact windows, doors, wiring, plumbing, HVAC, appliances and hardi-board siding - move in and you're done!

15. 2018-03-17
    status Pending With Contingencies 668-char remark

    Show marketing remark (668 chars)

    NEW, NEW, NEW! This property has been renovated and remodeled from the inside out!. This beautiful updated house in the desirous Lake Murex neighborhood is a short walk to the beach. It boasts beautiful tile flooring in the living areas and 3rd bedroom/den and carpet in the master bedroom and 2nd bedroom. The bright and open kitchen with quartz counters, white cabinets and stainless appliances flows to the open living/dining area. Sliders to the new 900 sq ft deck will be the center of all your entertaining. Bonus: there is still room for a pool! All new impact windows, doors, wiring, plumbing, HVAC, appliances and hardi-board siding - move in and you're done!

16. 2018-02-21
    price $674,900 668-char remark

    Show marketing remark (668 chars)

    NEW, NEW, NEW! This property has been renovated and remodeled from the inside out!. This beautiful updated house in the desirous Lake Murex neighborhood is a short walk to the beach. It boasts beautiful tile flooring in the living areas and 3rd bedroom/den and carpet in the master bedroom and 2nd bedroom. The bright and open kitchen with quartz counters, white cabinets and stainless appliances flows to the open living/dining area. Sliders to the new 900 sq ft deck will be the center of all your entertaining. Bonus: there is still room for a pool! All new impact windows, doors, wiring, plumbing, HVAC, appliances and hardi-board siding - move in and you're done!

17. 2018-02-16
    price $679,900 668-char remark

    Show marketing remark (668 chars)

    NEW, NEW, NEW! This property has been renovated and remodeled from the inside out!. This beautiful updated house in the desirous Lake Murex neighborhood is a short walk to the beach. It boasts beautiful tile flooring in the living areas and 3rd bedroom/den and carpet in the master bedroom and 2nd bedroom. The bright and open kitchen with quartz counters, white cabinets and stainless appliances flows to the open living/dining area. Sliders to the new 900 sq ft deck will be the center of all your entertaining. Bonus: there is still room for a pool! All new impact windows, doors, wiring, plumbing, HVAC, appliances and hardi-board siding - move in and you're done!

18. 2017-12-06
    price $685,000 668-char remark

    Show marketing remark (668 chars)

    NEW, NEW, NEW! This property has been renovated and remodeled from the inside out!. This beautiful updated house in the desirous Lake Murex neighborhood is a short walk to the beach. It boasts beautiful tile flooring in the living areas and 3rd bedroom/den and carpet in the master bedroom and 2nd bedroom. The bright and open kitchen with quartz counters, white cabinets and stainless appliances flows to the open living/dining area. Sliders to the new 900 sq ft deck will be the center of all your entertaining. Bonus: there is still room for a pool! All new impact windows, doors, wiring, plumbing, HVAC, appliances and hardi-board siding - move in and you're done!

19. 2017-09-26
    status Active 668-char remark

    Show marketing remark (668 chars)

    NEW, NEW, NEW! This property has been renovated and remodeled from the inside out!. This beautiful updated house in the desirous Lake Murex neighborhood is a short walk to the beach. It boasts beautiful tile flooring in the living areas and 3rd bedroom/den and carpet in the master bedroom and 2nd bedroom. The bright and open kitchen with quartz counters, white cabinets and stainless appliances flows to the open living/dining area. Sliders to the new 900 sq ft deck will be the center of all your entertaining. Bonus: there is still room for a pool! All new impact windows, doors, wiring, plumbing, HVAC, appliances and hardi-board siding - move in and you're done!

20. 2017-09-01
    status Pending With Contingencies 668-char remark

    Show marketing remark (668 chars)

    NEW, NEW, NEW! This property has been renovated and remodeled from the inside out!. This beautiful updated house in the desirous Lake Murex neighborhood is a short walk to the beach. It boasts beautiful tile flooring in the living areas and 3rd bedroom/den and carpet in the master bedroom and 2nd bedroom. The bright and open kitchen with quartz counters, white cabinets and stainless appliances flows to the open living/dining area. Sliders to the new 900 sq ft deck will be the center of all your entertaining. Bonus: there is still room for a pool! All new impact windows, doors, wiring, plumbing, HVAC, appliances and hardi-board siding - move in and you're done!

21. 2017-07-12
    listed $689,000 Active 668-char remark

    Show marketing remark (668 chars)

    NEW, NEW, NEW! This property has been renovated and remodeled from the inside out!. This beautiful updated house in the desirous Lake Murex neighborhood is a short walk to the beach. It boasts beautiful tile flooring in the living areas and 3rd bedroom/den and carpet in the master bedroom and 2nd bedroom. The bright and open kitchen with quartz counters, white cabinets and stainless appliances flows to the open living/dining area. Sliders to the new 900 sq ft deck will be the center of all your entertaining. Bonus: there is still room for a pool! All new impact windows, doors, wiring, plumbing, HVAC, appliances and hardi-board siding - move in and you're done!

22. 2017-01-31
    soldstatus $360,000
23. 2004-03-11
    soldstatus $403,000
24. 2004-03-01
    soldstatus $403,000 275-char remark

    Show marketing remark (275 chars)

    Walk Or Bike To The Beach From This Charming 2 Bd/2 Ba Near Beach Home. New Ac & Hot Water Heater. This Home Is Being Sold Furnished. Storageroom On Ground Level W/ Lots Of Room Under House For Vehicles Or Boatstorage. Owner Has Done Some Upgrading & Landscaping.

25. 2004-01-14
    price $409,994 275-char remark

    Show marketing remark (275 chars)

    Walk Or Bike To The Beach From This Charming 2 Bd/2 Ba Near Beach Home. New Ac & Hot Water Heater. This Home Is Being Sold Furnished. Storageroom On Ground Level W/ Lots Of Room Under House For Vehicles Or Boatstorage. Owner Has Done Some Upgrading & Landscaping.

26. 2002-08-14
    soldstatus $308,000
27. 1989-02-01
    soldstatus $164,900
28. 1987-12-22
    soldstatus $149,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $8,312 · $693/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,312 · $693/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $196,188
• − Mortgage interest: −$40,611
• − Property taxes: −$8,312
• − Insurance: −$8,744
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$15,695
• − Management: −$15,695
• − HOA: −$96
• − Depreciation: −$21,091
• Taxable income: $85,945
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$20,627
• After-tax cash flow: $71,587/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lee
• NCES district ID: 1201080
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $49,518
• Composite: 41.49/100
• National rank: #3458
• State rank: #42 of 73 in FL

Livability — Sanibel

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #541
• US rank: #10166

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing D+ Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sanibel, FL
• City population: 6,402
• Population (ZIP): 6,402

Population outlook (Lee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 871,946 people
• By 2030: 955,468 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 1,113,587 · +27.7%
• By 2050: 1,256,891 · +44.1%
• By 2075: 1,560,270 · +78.9%
• By 2100: 1,726,848 · +98.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 2% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Romanian 4% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · German/W. Germanic 1% Spanish 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.4) · D 35.5% · R 63.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.0pp toward R · 2008: -10.4pp · 2024: -28.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.4 2020: R+19.2 2016: R+20.4 2012: R+16.6 2008: R+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -93.08%
• Current HPI: 501.0
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+384.9% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-07 Price Changed $725,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2026-01-01 Listed $750,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2018-04-17 Sold (Public Records) $655,000 Public Records
• 2018-04-06 Sold (MLS) $655,000 FORTMLS
• 2018-03-17 Pending — FORTMLS
• 2018-02-21 Price Changed $674,900 FORTMLS
• 2018-02-16 Price Changed $679,900 FORTMLS
• 2017-12-06 Price Changed $685,000 FORTMLS
• 2017-09-26 Relisted — FORTMLS
• 2017-09-01 Pending — FORTMLS
• 2017-07-12 Listed $689,000 FORTMLS
• 2017-01-31 Sold (Public Records) $360,000 Public Records
• 2004-03-11 Sold (Public Records) $403,000 Public Records
• 2004-03-01 Sold (MLS) $403,000 FORTMLS
• 2004-01-14 Price Changed $409,994 FORTMLS
• 2002-08-14 Sold (Public Records) $308,000 Public Records
• 1989-02-01 Sold (Public Records) $164,900 Public Records
• 1987-12-22 Sold (Public Records) $149,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $8,312 · +24.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.