2954 Vineyards Pkwy Unit 22-3 · Branson, MO 65616

$219,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,147 sqft · Condo · 70 Days on market

Built 2007 Good condition $191/sqft · 8% below area Est $239k · 8% under $265/mo HOA · 14% of rent ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.2/15.0
• Cash flow +6.9/30.0
• Schools +4.9/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• DSCR +1.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• $265 HOA
• Built 2007
• Listed 69 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $219k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-328 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $172k (21.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $184k (16.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $172k (21.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.5% vs local median 2.8% in Branson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#32 in MO, #2,940 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F.
• Branson R-IV (rural): math 48% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #44 of 324 in MO (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Cedar Ridge Elementary (math 52% / reading 47%, grade D, #284 of 1,115 statewide, top 30%, 503 students, 65% FRL); Branson Jr. High (math 48% / reading 49%, grade C-, #81 of 391 statewide, top 21%, 724 students, 51% FRL); Branson High (math 42% / reading 56%, grade D, #145 of 521 statewide, top 28%, 1,423 students, 46% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.9%/yr); 1267 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 93d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 331 units permitted in Taney County in 2024 (50 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($60k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Taney County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 70 days — a 6% lower offer ($206k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $171,577 (21.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 70 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.50%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.41%
• DSCR: 0.71
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $238,849
• List price: $219,000
• Delta: -8.31%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2954 Vineyards Pkwy Unit 22-5	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,147 (0%)	3mo	$159,500	$139	97
2954 Vineyards Pkwy Unit 22-6	0.01mi	3/2.0	1,147 (0%)	3mo	$159,500	$139	97
2955 Vineyards Pkwy #4	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,161 (+1%)	0mo	$175,000	$151	96
2955 Vineyard Pkwy #3	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,161 (+1%)	0mo	$175,000	$151	96
3004 North Vineyards Terrace Ter Unit 36-2	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,147 (0%)	2mo	$247,500	$216	95
3107 S Vineyards Ter #4	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,147 (0%)	0mo	$267,900	$234	93
2910 Vineyard Pkwy #2	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,147 (0%)	4mo	$167,500	$146	91
310 Sunset Cv #333	1.46mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,214 (+6%)	3mo	$295,000	$243	48
800 Compton Ridge Rd	1.39mi	3/2.0	1,287 (+12%)	3mo	$164,900	$128	42
80 Celebration Cove Cir	1.22mi	3/2.0	1,412 (+23%)	1mo	$359,500	$255	39
80 Celebration Cove Cir #354	1.22mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,412 (+23%)	1mo	$389,000	$275	34
200 Majestic Dr #219	1.34mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,420 (+24%)	2mo	$380,000	$268	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.9% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -27.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.08×
• Total profit: $-56,355
• Equity at exit: $32,654

10-year hold

• IRR: -25.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.24×
• Total profit: $-75,932
• Equity at exit: $18,935

Cash invested: $61,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 1 active
• Median asking: $189,000 ($165/sqft)
• Median days on market: 354 d
• This list price: 100% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +26.4% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 65616

• Home prices YoY: -24.3%
• Rents YoY: 2.9%
• Active inventory: 1267
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,836 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,148
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$274 /mo · $3,285/yr
• Insurance: −$91
• HOA: −$265
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$386
• Net cashflow: $-328

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,251

Max offer price $171,577

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-176	-5% $-252	+0% $-328	+5% $-403	+10% $-479
Rent	-10% $-473	-5% $-400	+0% $-328	+5% $-255	+10% $-183
Rate	-1.0pp $-217	-0.5pp $-272	base $-328	+0.5pp $-384	+1.0pp $-442

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $54,750
• Closing costs: $6,570
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2905 Vineyards Pkwy #5 Branson, MO	3.0	2.0	1147	$1,850	$1.61	93d	1	0.02mi
2907 Vineyards Pkwy #2 Branson, MO	3.0	2.0	1147	$1,850	$1.61	93d	1	0.02mi
3515 Arlene St Branson, MO	2.0	2.0	880	$1,025	$1.16	93d	1	0.61mi
513 Lakewood Rd Branson, MO	3.0	3.0	1487	$1,750	$1.18	93d	1	1.15mi
325 Majestic Dr Branson, MO	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	941	$1,650	$1.75	93d	2	1.36mi

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Monthly association fee of $265

Exterior

• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
• Home design: CondominiumSingle-story
• Construction: 1,147 above-grade finished square feet
• Exterior features: Located in The Vineyard Condominiums subdivisionDirections: Hwy 265 to the Vineyard Condominiums

Interior

• Kitchen: Includes standard kitchen appliances
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric)Central air conditioningCeiling fans
• Interior features: One-level living
• Laundry & utility: Washer/dryer hookups (in-unit laundry not specified)

HOA detail $265/mo · $3,180/yr condo

• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $219,000 Active 70 DOM
2. 2026-08-07
   days on market $219,000 Active 69 DOM
3. 2026-08-06
   days on market $219,000 Active 68 DOM
4. 2026-08-05
   days on market $219,000 Active 67 DOM
5. 2026-08-04
   days on market $219,000 Active 66 DOM
6. 2026-08-03
   days on market $219,000 Active 65 DOM
7. 2026-07-31
   days on market $219,000 Active 62 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   days on market $219,000 Active 61 DOM
9. 2026-07-29
   days on market $219,000 Active 60 DOM
10. 2026-07-27
    days on market $219,000 Active 58 DOM
11. 2026-07-25
    days on market $219,000 Active 56 DOM
12. 2026-07-24
    days on market $219,000 Active 55 DOM
13. 2026-07-23
    days on market $219,000 Active 54 DOM
14. 2026-07-22
    days on market $219,000 Active 53 DOM
15. 2026-07-21
    days on market $219,000 Active 52 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $219,000 Active 49 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $219,000 Active 47 DOM
18. 2026-07-15
    days on market $219,000 Active 46 DOM
19. 2026-07-14
    days on market $219,000 Active 45 DOM
20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $219,000 Active 44 DOM
21. 2026-07-12
    days on market $219,000 Active 43 DOM
22. 2026-07-11
    days on market $219,000 Active 42 DOM
23. 2026-07-11
    days on market $219,000 Active 41 DOM
24. 2026-07-09
    days on market $219,000 Active 40 DOM
25. 2026-07-08
    days on market $219,000 Active 39 DOM
26. 2026-07-07
    days on market $219,000 Active 38 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $219,000 Active 37 DOM
28. 2026-07-05
    days on market $219,000 Active 36 DOM
29. 2026-07-04
    days on market $219,000 Active 35 DOM
30. 2026-07-03
    days on market $219,000 Active 34 DOM
31. 2026-07-02
    days on market $219,000 Active 33 DOM
32. 2026-07-01
    days on market $219,000 Active 32 DOM
33. 2026-06-30
    days on marketlisting id $219,000 Active 31 DOM
34. 2026-06-30
    days on marketlisting id $219,000 Active 1 DOM
35. 2026-06-29
    price $219,000 Active 30 DOM
36. 2026-06-29
    days on market $229,000 Active 30 DOM
37. 2026-06-28
    days on market $229,000 Active 29 DOM
38. 2026-06-27
    days on market $229,000 Active 28 DOM
39. 2026-06-26
    days on market $229,000 Active 26 DOM
40. 2026-06-22
    days on market $229,000 Active 23 DOM
41. 2026-06-21
    days on market $229,000 Active 22 DOM
42. 2026-06-19
    days on market $229,000 Active 20 DOM
43. 2026-06-18
    days on market $229,000 Active 19 DOM
44. 2026-06-17
    days on market $229,000 Active 18 DOM
45. 2026-06-16
    days on market $229,000 Active 17 DOM
46. 2026-06-15
    days on market $229,000 Active 16 DOM
47. 2026-06-14
    days on market $229,000 Active 14 DOM
48. 2026-06-12
    days on market $229,000 Active 13 DOM
49. 2026-06-09
    days on market $229,000 Active 10 DOM
50. 2026-06-08
    days on market $229,000 Active 9 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,036
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,267
• − Property taxes: −$3,285
• − Insurance: −$1,095
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,763
• − Management: −$1,763
• − HOA: −$3,180
• − Depreciation: −$6,371
• Taxable loss: −$7,688
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,845
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,088/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 3 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $5,735–$17,205 screening

This single-family home is in good condition with a good exterior and interior. It's ready for a fresh coat of paint and landscaping to enhance its curb appeal and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Landscaping — Improves curb appeal and rental appeal ↑
• Both Interior cleaning — Prepares for showing and rental ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 49/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Cedar Ridge Primary Middle Branson Jr. High C- MO #81/391 Nat'l #3,846/14,009 High Branson High D MO #145/521 Nat'l #6,078/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Branson R-IV
• NCES district ID: 2905760
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $41,473
• Composite: 41.96/100
• National rank: #3347
• State rank: #44 of 324 in MO

B Composite livability gradescore 77/100

Livability — Branson

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #32
• US rank: #2940

Category grades

Amenities A- Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Branson, MO
• County: Taney County · 59,017 people
• City population: 28,460
• Metro: Branson, MO
• Population (ZIP): 28,460
• Household income: $60,489
• Rent vs Own: 41.8% rent · 58.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 6% of renters

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Population outlook (Taney County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 59,017 people
• By 2030: 61,235 · +3.8%
• By 2040: 65,225 · +10.5%
• By 2050: 68,842 · +16.6%
• By 2075: 77,705 · +31.7%
• By 2100: 82,002 · +38.9%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 10% Black 2% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Taney

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+59.3) · D 19.9% · R 79.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.2pp toward R · 2008: -37.2pp · 2024: -59.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+59.3 2020: R+57.7 2016: R+59.3 2012: R+47.4 2008: R+37.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -64.45%
• Current HPI: 200.8392
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.90%
• Metro: Branson, MO
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Monthly association fee of $265

Exterior

• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
• Home design: CondominiumSingle-story
• Construction: 1,147 above-grade finished square feet
• Exterior features: Located in The Vineyard Condominiums subdivisionDirections: Hwy 265 to the Vineyard Condominiums

Interior

• Kitchen: Includes standard kitchen appliances
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric)Central air conditioningCeiling fans
• Interior features: One-level living
• Laundry & utility: Washer/dryer hookups (in-unit laundry not specified)

Price history

-4.4% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-29 Price Changed $219,000 SOMO
• 2026-05-29 Listed $229,000 SOMO
• 2023-08-04 Rental Removed — APPFOLIO