104 Lawrence Landing Rd · Mayflower, AR 72032

$205,500

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,774 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 240 Days on market

Built 1986 0.50 ac lot Est $282k · 27% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.0/30.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

SBL

Key facts

• 18x24 shed
• Half-acre lot
• Fresh paint

Tags

• 18X24 SHED
• NEW ROOF
• FRESH PAINT
• HALF-ACRE LOT

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage
• Utilities: Propane; Septic tank
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Outbuilding; Half-acre lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Dishwasher

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $206k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $26 ($307/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $166k (19.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $166k (19.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 4.6% in Mayflower — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#390 in AR) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Conway School District (urban): math 43% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #36 of 238 in AR (top 15%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Conway High West (math 37% / reading 50%, grade F, #36 of 292 statewide, top 12%, 2,181 students, 47% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 187 active listings in the ZIP; 865 units permitted in Faulkner County in 2024 (451 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($65k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Faulkner County population projected at +32% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 240 days — a 12% lower offer ($181k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $54k (21%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $165,746 (19.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 240 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.53%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $282,066
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3 Holly Ln	0.12mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,604 (-10%)	0mo	$255,000	$159	71
114 Lawrence Landing Rd	0.09mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,544 (-13%)	4mo	$225,000	$146	64
2 Pumping Station Rd W	0.18mi	4/2.0	1,589 (-10%)	17mo	$261,500	$165	58

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.15% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-34,758
• Equity at exit: $30,641

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.30×
• Total profit: $-40,384
• Equity at exit: $17,768

Cash invested: $57,540 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 72032

• Home prices YoY: -17.0%
• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 187
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,657 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,078
• Tax from tax record: −$121 /mo · $1,446/yr
• Insurance: −$86
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$348
• Net cashflow: $26

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,625

Max offer price $205,500

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $142	-5% $84	+0% $26	+5% $-33	+10% $-91
Rent	-10% $-105	-5% $-40	+0% $26	+5% $91	+10% $157
Rate	-1.0pp $129	-0.5pp $78	base $26	+0.5pp $-28	+1.0pp $-82

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $51,375
• Closing costs: $6,165
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $205,500 Active 240 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $205,500 Active 239 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $205,500 Active 238 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $205,500 Active 237 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $205,500 Active 235 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $205,500 Active 232 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $205,500 Active 231 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $205,500 Active 230 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $205,500 Active 229 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $205,500 Active 225 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $205,500 Active 224 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $205,500 Active 223 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $205,500 Active 222 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    pricedays on market $205,500 Active 221 DOM
15. 2026-05-18
    price $219,500
16. 2026-05-01
    status Active
17. 2026-05-01
    price $229,500
18. 2026-02-20
    price $188,500
19. 2026-01-23
    price $200,000
20. 2025-11-25
    price $230,000
21. 2025-10-27
    price $234,900
22. 2025-10-17
    price $244,900
23. 2025-10-01
    listed $259,900 Active
24. 2023-08-29
    soldstatus $191,820
25. 2023-08-22
    soldstatus $191,820 3-char remark

    Show marketing remark (3 chars)

    SBL

26. 2023-07-11
    listed $191,820 3-char remark

    Show marketing remark (3 chars)

    SBL

27. 2006-05-23
    soldstatus $91,000
28. 2003-03-24
    soldstatus $87,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,446 · $121/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,446 · $121/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 8% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,890
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,511
• − Property taxes: −$1,446
• − Insurance: −$1,028
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,591
• − Management: −$1,591
• − Depreciation: −$5,978
• Taxable loss: −$3,256
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$781
• After-tax cash flow: $1,089/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conway School District
• NCES district ID: 0504590
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $46,270
• Composite: 38.27/100
• National rank: #4236
• State rank: #36 of 238 in AR

Livability — Mayflower

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #390
• US rank: #22893

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C+ Housing B+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Faulkner County · 103,634 people
• Metro: Little Rock-North Little Rock-Conway, AR
• Population (ZIP): 34,469
• Household income: $64,695
• Rent vs Own: 36.6% rent · 63.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 916.0

Population outlook (Faulkner County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 138,985 people
• By 2030: 148,264 · +6.7%
• By 2040: 166,010 · +19.4%
• By 2050: 183,362 · +31.9%
• By 2075: 224,593 · +61.6%
• By 2100: 250,603 · +80.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Black 15% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Serbian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 6%

Political lean MEDSL · Faulkner

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+32.3) · D 32.6% · R 64.9% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.1pp toward R · 2008: -25.3pp · 2024: -32.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+32.3 2020: R+29.5 2016: R+31.6 2012: R+31.7 2008: R+25.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -48.15%
• Current HPI: 234.6331
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.15%
• Metro: Little Rock-North Little Rock-Conway, AR
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

+152.3% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Price Changed $219,500 NEABOR MLS
• 2026-05-01 Relisted — NEABOR MLS
• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $229,500 NEABOR MLS
• 2026-02-20 Price Changed $188,500 NEABOR MLS
• 2026-01-23 Price Changed $200,000 NEABOR MLS
• 2025-11-25 Price Changed $230,000 NEABOR MLS
• 2025-10-27 Price Changed $234,900 NEABOR MLS
• 2025-10-17 Price Changed $244,900 NEABOR MLS
• 2025-10-01 Listed $259,900 NEABOR MLS
• 2023-08-29 Sold (Public Records) $191,820 Public Records
• 2023-08-22 Sold (MLS) $191,820 CARMLS
• 2023-07-11 Listed $191,820 CARMLS
• 2006-05-23 Sold (Public Records) $91,000 Public Records
• 2003-03-24 Sold (Public Records) $87,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,446 · -4.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.