875 Hawkins Ave · Lakeside, FL 32065

$194,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Manufactured public records · 326 Days on market

Built 1973 1.45 ac lot Est $206k · 6% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.1/30.0
• ARV discount +10.1/15.0
• DSCR +6.0/10.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Peaceful 1.5+ Acre Property - Zoned for Horses, No HOA! Nestled in a prime location on a quiet dead-end street, this property offers the perfect blend of space, seclusion, and convenience. Enjoy close proximity to top-rated schools, shopping, and easy access to the interstate, all while relishing the freedom of rural living. This property gives you the flexibility to truly customize it to your vision—whether you're dreaming of a family compound, mini farm, or adding additional dwellings. Also includes a shed with electricity—ideal for a workshop or storage. Do not miss this opportunity to own this versatile piece of land.

Key facts

• Acre property
• No hoa
• Zoned for horses

Tags

• ACRE PROPERTY
• ZONED FOR HORSES
• NO HOA
• QUIET DEAD-END STREET
• EASY ACCESS TO THE INTERSTATE
• SHED WITH ELECTRICITY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $194k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $207 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $187k (3.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $171k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 4.7% in Lakeside — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#505 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, schools B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Clay (suburban): math 58% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #14 of 73 in FL (top 19%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.7%/yr); 217 active listings in the ZIP; 22 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,876 units permitted in Clay County in 2024 (14 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Clay County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 326 days — a 12% lower offer ($171k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $75k (28%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $90k; list at $194k implies a 116% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $170,720 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 326 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.57%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.58%
• DSCR: 1.20
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $205,920
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
875 Hawkins Ave	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,440 (0%)	1mo	$175,000	$122	99
853 Fern Ave	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,400 (-3%)	16mo	$199,900	$143	70
758 Washington Ave	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,380 (-4%)	8mo	$170,000	$123	60
472 Logan Ave	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,590 (+10%)	14mo	$230,000	$145	44
440 Hansen Ave	0.40mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,248 (-13%)	14mo	$225,000	$180	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.73% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.69×
• Total profit: $-16,865
• Equity at exit: $28,926

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.15×
• Total profit: $8,029
• Equity at exit: $16,774

Cash invested: $54,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32065

• Home prices YoY: -25.6%
• Rents YoY: 3.7%
• Active inventory: 217
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,874 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,017
• Tax from tax record: −$175 /mo · $2,097/yr
• Insurance: −$81
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$393
• Net cashflow: $207

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,611

Max offer price $194,000

Occupancy floor 84%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,500
• Closing costs: $5,820
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 22 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1255 Tahoe Ct Orange Park, FL	3.0	2.0	1305	$1,916	$1.47	7d	1	0.30mi
2921 Andy Ct Orange Park, FL	3.0	2.0	1658	$1,885	$1.14	4d	1	0.58mi
1281 Independence Dr Orange Park, FL	3.0	2.0	1087	$1,695	$1.56	23d	1	0.90mi
1270 Ticonderoga Trl Unit C Orange Park, FL	2.0	2.0	922	$1,300	$1.41	23d	1	0.96mi
1324 Jefferson Ave Orange Park, FL	2.0	2.0	926	$1,245	$1.34	23d	1	0.98mi
1324 Jefferson Ave Orange Park, FL	2.0	2.0	922	$1,245	$1.35	2d	1	0.98mi
1330 Jefferson Ave Orange Park, FL	2.0	2.0	922	$1,250	$1.36	16d	1	1.00mi
25 Knight Boxx Rd Orange Park, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1109	$1,863	$1.68	2d	18	1.01mi
1248 Ticonderoga Trl Unit C Orange Park, FL	2.0	2.0	922	$1,195	$1.30	7d	1	1.01mi
1333 Jefferson Ave Unit D Orange Park, FL	2.0	2.0	922	$1,325	$1.44	23d	1	1.04mi
2804 Canyon Ct Orange Park, FL	3.0	2.0	1367	$1,824	$1.33	14d	1	1.05mi
2897 Gatling Blvd Orange Park, FL	3.0	2.0	1338	$1,650	$1.23	7d	1	1.17mi
1504 Pawnee St Orange Park, FL	3.0	2.0	1338	$1,795	$1.34	20d	1	1.20mi
3248 Dowitcher Ln Orange Park, FL	3.0	2.0	1156	$1,550	$1.34	23d	1	1.30mi
2796 Kiowa Ave Orange Park, FL	3.0	2.0	1274	$1,915	$1.50	2d	1	1.30mi
3223 Merganzer Trl Orange Park, FL	3.0	2.0	1155	$1,755	$1.52	23d	1	1.34mi
3296 Isabella Ct Unit 1 Orange Park, FL	3.0	2.5	1800	$2,050	$1.14	3d	1	1.41mi
3296 Isabella Ct Orange Park, FL	3.0	2.5	1800	$2,050	$1.14	4d	1	1.41mi
3296 Isabella Ct Unit 3296 Orange Park, FL	3.0	2.5	1714	$2,050	$1.20	23d	1	1.41mi
1338 Pawnee St Orange Park, FL	3.0	2.0	1324	$1,905	$1.44	20d	1	1.43mi
2716 Secret Harbor Dr Orange Park, FL	3.0	2.0	1388	$1,695	$1.22	4d	1	1.49mi
2716 Secret Harbor Dr Orange Park, FL	3.0	2.0	1268	$1,695	$1.34	7d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-04-22
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-31
   price $194,000
3. 2026-02-21
   price $199,000
4. 2025-12-24
   price $209,000
5. 2025-12-01
   status Active
6. 2025-11-30
   historical
7. 2025-11-22
   price $218,000
8. 2025-10-21
   price $228,000
9. 2025-08-26
   price $239,000
10. 2025-08-02
    price $245,000
11. 2025-06-30
    price $254,000
12. 2025-05-28
    listed $269,000 Active
13. 2006-08-02
    soldstatus $90,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,097 · $175/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,097 · $175/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,484
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,867
• − Property taxes: −$2,097
• − Insurance: −$970
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,799
• − Management: −$1,799
• − Depreciation: −$5,644
• Taxable loss: −$691
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$166
• After-tax cash flow: $2,653/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Clay
• NCES district ID: 1200300
• Math proficiency: 58% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $59,379
• Composite: 50.73/100
• National rank: #1815
• State rank: #14 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lakeside

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #505
• US rank: #9341

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lakeside, FL
• County: Clay County · 208,450 people
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 41,578
• Household income: $97,455
• Rent vs Own: 27.5% rent · 72.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1129.0

Population outlook (Clay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 230,495 people
• By 2030: 242,427 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 262,244 · +13.8%
• By 2050: 275,148 · +19.4%
• By 2075: 295,397 · +28.2%
• By 2100: 287,592 · +24.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: White 51% Black 20% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 15% Asian 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 5% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Romanian 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 7% Tagalog/Filipino 3% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Clay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.3) · D 29.9% · R 69.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.6pp toward D · 2008: -42.8pp · 2024: -39.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.3 2020: R+37.1 2016: R+44.3 2012: R+45.8 2008: R+42.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -95.13%
• Current HPI: 276.5987
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.73%
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+115.6% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Pending — realMLS
• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $194,000 realMLS
• 2026-02-21 Price Changed $199,000 realMLS
• 2025-12-24 Price Changed $209,000 realMLS
• 2025-12-01 Relisted — realMLS
• 2025-11-30 Listing Removed — realMLS
• 2025-11-22 Price Changed $218,000 realMLS
• 2025-10-21 Price Changed $228,000 realMLS
• 2025-08-26 Price Changed $239,000 realMLS
• 2025-08-02 Price Changed $245,000 realMLS
• 2025-06-30 Price Changed $254,000 realMLS
• 2025-05-28 Listed $269,000 realMLS
• 2006-08-02 Sold (Public Records) $90,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,097 · +6.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.