8 Keppel St · Buffalo, NY 14210

$199,900

6 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,656 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 24 Days on market

Built 1900 1,318 sqft lot Est $177k · 13% over ↓ 9% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.6/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.9/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +1.7/15.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 2 units. confirmed

Listing remarks

Move-in ready and truly maintenance-free, this beautifully updated 2-unit property offers the perfect blend of comfort, style, and investment potential—tucked away on a quiet one-way street. Both units feature stunning updated kitchens with granite countertops and modern finishes, along with newly renovated bathrooms that create a fresh, clean, and inviting living space. Major mechanical updates have already been taken care of for you, including a newer roof, furnaces and hot water tanks (all within the last 10 years), updated electrical, glass block windows, and mostly all new windows throughout. Enjoy the added charm of both lower and upper front porches—perfect for relaxing o

Key facts

• Updated electrical
• Renovated bathrooms
• Newer roof

Tags

• UPDATED KITCHENS
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• RENOVATED BATHROOMS
• NEWER ROOF
• UPDATED ELECTRICAL
• GLASS BLOCK WINDOWS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2 × 3-bed/1.0-bath units multifamily listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $603 ($7k/yr) — positive. Per door: $301/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $200k).
• Recommended offer: $197k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.2% vs local median 8.0% in Buffalo — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#195 in NY, #3,011 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
• Buffalo City School District (urban): math 41% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #535 of 590 in NY (top 91%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+12.7%/yr); 94 active listings in the ZIP; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,582/mo this rent would consume 57% of the median local household income ($54k/yr) (locally 959% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $21k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $20k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($197k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo; built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $196,901 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
2. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
3. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.29% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.24%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.11%
• DSCR: 1.63
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $177,192
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
419 Bailey Ave	0.15mi	6/2.0	1,722 (+4%)	12mo	$230,000	$134	76
137 Milton St	0.51mi	6/2.0	1,680 (+1%)	9mo	$179,900	$107	66
23 Archer Ave	0.18mi	5/2.0 (-1)	1,840 (+11%)	9mo	$230,000	$125	61
111 Roberts Ave	0.61mi	5/2.0 (-1)	1,810 (+9%)	5mo	$115,000	$64	47
81 Roberts Ave	0.57mi	5/2.0 (-1)	1,732 (+5%)	18mo	$100,000	$58	46
152 Good Ave	0.63mi	6/2.0	1,816 (+10%)	13mo	$115,000	$63	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 36.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.88×
• Total profit: $160,980
• Equity at exit: $180,086

10-year hold

• IRR: 33.1%
• Equity multiple: 9.54×
• Total profit: $477,819
• Equity at exit: $388,362

Cash invested: $55,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14210

• Home prices YoY: 13.8%
• Rents YoY: 12.7%
• Active inventory: 94
• Price-to-rent: 12.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,582 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$250 /mo · $2,998/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$56 /mo · $666/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$542
• Net cashflow: $603

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,819

Max offer price $199,900

Occupancy floor 72%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $741	-5% $672	+0% $603	+5% $534	+10% $465
Rent	-10% $399	-5% $501	+0% $603	+5% $705	+10% $807
Rate	-1.0pp $703	-0.5pp $654	base $603	+0.5pp $551	+1.0pp $498

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	3	1	$2,582
Total (2 units)			$2,582

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,975
• Closing costs: $5,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-04-24
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-14
   historical Active Under Contract
3. 2026-03-31
   price $199,900
4. 2026-03-31
   listed $229,900 Active
5. 2026-02-03
   price $229,900
6. 2025-10-28
   price $239,900
7. 2025-08-27
   listed $219,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 76% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,984
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,198
• − Property taxes: −$2,998
• − Insurance: −$1,666
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,479
• − Management: −$2,479
• − Depreciation: −$5,815
• Taxable income: $4,349
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,044
• After-tax cash flow: $6,189/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Buffalo City School District
• NCES district ID: 3605850
• Math proficiency: 41% ▲ 11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $31,665
• Composite: 33.17/100
• National rank: #5544
• State rank: #535 of 590 in NY

Livability — Buffalo

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #195
• US rank: #3011

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Buffalo, NY
• County: Erie County · 714,559 people
• City population: 440,021
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 15,563
• Household income: $54,197
• Rent vs Own: 53.9% rent · 46.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 959.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Two or more races 8% Black 8% Hispanic / Latino 7% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 6%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 21% Lithuanian 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 2% Arabic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 52.34%
• Current HPI: 431.7951
• Rent YoY: ▲ 12.67%
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-9.1% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-24 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2026-04-14 Contingent — WNYREIS
• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $199,900 WNYREIS
• 2026-03-31 Listed $229,900 WNYREIS
• 2026-02-03 Price Changed $229,900 WNYREIS
• 2025-10-28 Price Changed $239,900 WNYREIS
• 2025-08-27 Listed $219,900 WNYREIS

Property tax history

+6.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $263 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.