247 Trailfork Rd · Ruckersville, VA 22923

$374,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,554 sqft · SingleFamily · 148 Days on market

Built 2026 $241/sqft · 8% below area Est $407k · 8% under ↓ 3% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.1/15.0
• Cash flow +8.8/30.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to The Hinsdale, a delightful single-family ranch home nestled in the vibrant Essence at Creekside community in Greene County, VA. This charming residence spans 1,554 square feet and features three spacious bedrooms and two full bathrooms, making it an ideal choice for families or those seeking a comfortable retreat. The home's inviting covered porch welcomes you inside, where a warm atmosphere awaits. The heart of this home is undoubtedly the well-appointed kitchen, complete with a walk-in pantry and an optional island that enhances both functionality and style. Adjacent to the kitchen, the dining area and family room create an open space perfect for entertaining or enjoying quiet family moments. After a busy day, retreat to the serene primary bedroom located at the rear of the home, which boasts an en-suite bathroom and a generous walk-in closet, providing a peaceful haven for relaxation. The thoughtful layout ensures that every detail transforms this house into a true home, balancing quality with affordability. Living in Essence at Creekside means you're just a short drive from Downtown Charlottesville, with easy access to nature trails at Preddy Creek Park and a host of community amenities, including a pool and sports court. With a two-car garage and ample on-site features, The Hinsdale is not just a house; it's a lifestyle waiting for you to embrace. Don't miss the opportunity to make this beautiful home yours today!

Key facts

• Covered porch
• Dining area
• Family room

Tags

• COVERED PORCH
• WELL-APPOINTED KITCHEN
• WALK-IN PANTRY
• OPTIONAL ISLAND
• DINING AREA
• FAMILY ROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $375k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-308 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $330k (11.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $289k (22.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $289k (22.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#318 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A, housing A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Greene County Public School District (town): math 40% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #88 of 131 in VA (top 67%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 185 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 204 units permitted in Greene County in 2024 (34 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Greene County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 148 days — a 12% lower offer ($330k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $289,023 (22.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 148 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.31%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.52%
• DSCR: 0.84
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $407,238
• List price: $374,990
• Delta: -7.92%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
145 Trailfork Rd	0.02mi	3/2.0	1,554 (0%)	5mo	$372,390	$240	95
193 Trailfork Rd Lot 76	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,554 (0%)	0mo	$373,389	$240	88
157 Trailfork Rd	0.02mi	3/2.0	1,725 (+11%)	4mo	$389,990	$226	78
375 White Sands Blvd	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,723 (+11%)	3mo	$486,755	$283	75
260 Trailfork Rd	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,725 (+11%)	2mo	$459,990	$267	71
181 Trailfork Rd	0.01mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,760 (+13%)	3mo	$402,990	$229	68
237 Trailfork Rd	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,347 (-13%)	1mo	$385,990	$287	68
201 Tanglewood Dr	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,432 (-8%)	1mo	$355,000	$248	60
225 Trailfork Rd	0.23mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,760 (+13%)	1mo	$407,490	$232	60
75 Lumber Ln	0.62mi	3/1.5	1,692 (+9%)	2mo	$353,000	$209	52
97 Lumber Ln	0.62mi	3/1.0	1,387 (-11%)	1mo	$295,000	$213	48
54 Mannie Ct	0.66mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,680 (+8%)	6mo	$387,500	$231	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.23×
• Total profit: $-80,350
• Equity at exit: $55,912

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.09×
• Total profit: $-95,065
• Equity at exit: $32,422

Cash invested: $104,997 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 22923

• Home prices YoY: -3.6%
• Active inventory: 185
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,890 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,966
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$469 /mo · $5,625/yr
• Insurance: −$156
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$607
• Net cashflow: $-308

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,280

Max offer price $330,394

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-49	-5% $-179	+0% $-308	+5% $-438	+10% $-567
Rent	-10% $-537	-5% $-422	+0% $-308	+5% $-194	+10% $-80
Rate	-1.0pp $-119	-0.5pp $-213	base $-308	+0.5pp $-405	+1.0pp $-504

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $93,748
• Closing costs: $11,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
54 Mannie Ct Barboursville, VA	4.0	2.0	1680	$2,600	$1.55	13d	1	0.66mi
92 Everglades RD Barboursville, VA	4.0	2.5	1903	$2,795	$1.47	13d	1	0.75mi
591 Preddy Creek Rd Barboursville, VA	3.0	2.0	1200	$2,400	$2.00	3d	1	0.97mi
32 Estes Ct Barboursville, VA	3.0	2.5	1400	$2,600	$1.86	14d	1	1.13mi
100 Terrace Greene Cir Barboursville, VA	2.0	2.0–2.5	1272	$2,099	$1.65	2d	23	1.19mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $374,990 Active 148 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $374,990 Active 147 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $374,990 Active 146 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $374,990 Active 145 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $374,990 Active 144 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $374,990 Active 142 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $374,990 Active 141 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   pricedays on market $374,990 Active 139 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $389,000 Active 138 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $389,000 Active 137 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $389,000 Active 136 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $389,000 Active 133 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $389,000 Active 132 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $389,000 Active 131 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $389,000 Active 130 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $389,000 Active 129 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $389,000 Active 128 DOM
18. 2026-05-02
    price $399,000 1453-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1453 chars)

    Welcome to The Hinsdale, a delightful single-family ranch home nestled in the vibrant Essence at Creekside community in Greene County, VA. This charming residence spans 1,554 square feet and features three spacious bedrooms and two full bathrooms, making it an ideal choice for families or those seeking a comfortable retreat. The home's inviting covered porch welcomes you inside, where a warm atmosphere awaits. The heart of this home is undoubtedly the well-appointed kitchen, complete with a walk-in pantry and an optional island that enhances both functionality and style. Adjacent to the kitchen, the dining area and family room create an open space perfect for entertaining or enjoying quiet family moments. After a busy day, retreat to the serene primary bedroom located at the rear of the home, which boasts an en-suite bathroom and a generous walk-in closet, providing a peaceful haven for relaxation. The thoughtful layout ensures that every detail transforms this house into a true home, balancing quality with affordability. Living in Essence at Creekside means you're just a short drive from Downtown Charlottesville, with easy access to nature trails at Preddy Creek Park and a host of community amenities, including a pool and sports court. With a two-car garage and ample on-site features, The Hinsdale is not just a house; it's a lifestyle waiting for you to embrace. Don't miss the opportunity to make this beautiful home yours today!

19. 2026-04-21
    price $404,000 1453-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1453 chars)

    Welcome to The Hinsdale, a delightful single-family ranch home nestled in the vibrant Essence at Creekside community in Greene County, VA. This charming residence spans 1,554 square feet and features three spacious bedrooms and two full bathrooms, making it an ideal choice for families or those seeking a comfortable retreat. The home's inviting covered porch welcomes you inside, where a warm atmosphere awaits. The heart of this home is undoubtedly the well-appointed kitchen, complete with a walk-in pantry and an optional island that enhances both functionality and style. Adjacent to the kitchen, the dining area and family room create an open space perfect for entertaining or enjoying quiet family moments. After a busy day, retreat to the serene primary bedroom located at the rear of the home, which boasts an en-suite bathroom and a generous walk-in closet, providing a peaceful haven for relaxation. The thoughtful layout ensures that every detail transforms this house into a true home, balancing quality with affordability. Living in Essence at Creekside means you're just a short drive from Downtown Charlottesville, with easy access to nature trails at Preddy Creek Park and a host of community amenities, including a pool and sports court. With a two-car garage and ample on-site features, The Hinsdale is not just a house; it's a lifestyle waiting for you to embrace. Don't miss the opportunity to make this beautiful home yours today!

20. 2026-02-05
    price $412,589 1453-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1453 chars)

    Welcome to The Hinsdale, a delightful single-family ranch home nestled in the vibrant Essence at Creekside community in Greene County, VA. This charming residence spans 1,554 square feet and features three spacious bedrooms and two full bathrooms, making it an ideal choice for families or those seeking a comfortable retreat. The home's inviting covered porch welcomes you inside, where a warm atmosphere awaits. The heart of this home is undoubtedly the well-appointed kitchen, complete with a walk-in pantry and an optional island that enhances both functionality and style. Adjacent to the kitchen, the dining area and family room create an open space perfect for entertaining or enjoying quiet family moments. After a busy day, retreat to the serene primary bedroom located at the rear of the home, which boasts an en-suite bathroom and a generous walk-in closet, providing a peaceful haven for relaxation. The thoughtful layout ensures that every detail transforms this house into a true home, balancing quality with affordability. Living in Essence at Creekside means you're just a short drive from Downtown Charlottesville, with easy access to nature trails at Preddy Creek Park and a host of community amenities, including a pool and sports court. With a two-car garage and ample on-site features, The Hinsdale is not just a house; it's a lifestyle waiting for you to embrace. Don't miss the opportunity to make this beautiful home yours today!

21. 2026-01-22
    listed $410,589 Active 1453-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1453 chars)

    Welcome to The Hinsdale, a delightful single-family ranch home nestled in the vibrant Essence at Creekside community in Greene County, VA. This charming residence spans 1,554 square feet and features three spacious bedrooms and two full bathrooms, making it an ideal choice for families or those seeking a comfortable retreat. The home's inviting covered porch welcomes you inside, where a warm atmosphere awaits. The heart of this home is undoubtedly the well-appointed kitchen, complete with a walk-in pantry and an optional island that enhances both functionality and style. Adjacent to the kitchen, the dining area and family room create an open space perfect for entertaining or enjoying quiet family moments. After a busy day, retreat to the serene primary bedroom located at the rear of the home, which boasts an en-suite bathroom and a generous walk-in closet, providing a peaceful haven for relaxation. The thoughtful layout ensures that every detail transforms this house into a true home, balancing quality with affordability. Living in Essence at Creekside means you're just a short drive from Downtown Charlottesville, with easy access to nature trails at Preddy Creek Park and a host of community amenities, including a pool and sports court. With a two-car garage and ample on-site features, The Hinsdale is not just a house; it's a lifestyle waiting for you to embrace. Don't miss the opportunity to make this beautiful home yours today!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,683
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,005
• − Property taxes: −$5,625
• − Insurance: −$1,875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,775
• − Management: −$2,775
• − Depreciation: −$10,909
• Taxable loss: −$10,280
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,467
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,231/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Greene County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5101710
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -37.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $59,129
• Composite: 45.22/100
• National rank: #2668
• State rank: #88 of 131 in VA

Livability — Ruckersville

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #318
• US rank: #11455

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A+ Employment A Housing A- Health & safety F User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Orange County · 21,992 people
• Metro: Charlottesville, VA
• Population (ZIP): 6,435
• Household income: $118,125
• Rent vs Own: 25.2% rent · 74.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 42.0

Population outlook (Greene County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 20,465 people
• By 2030: 20,958 · +2.4%
• By 2040: 21,619 · +5.6%
• By 2050: 21,699 · +6.0%
• By 2075: 21,656 · +5.8%
• By 2100: 20,156 · -1.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Black 5% Two or more races 5% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Portuguese 3% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 3%
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Greene

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.7) · D 37.0% · R 61.7% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.9pp toward R · 2008: -21.9pp · 2024: -24.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.7 2020: R+23.9 2016: R+31.8 2012: R+25.3 2008: R+21.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -11.41%
• Current HPI: 303.0348
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Charlottesville, VA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

-2.8% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-02 Price Changed $399,000 Zillow
• 2026-04-21 Price Changed $404,000 Zillow
• 2026-02-05 Price Changed $412,589 Zillow
• 2026-01-22 Listed $410,589 Zillow