5431 N Hwy 77 · La Grange, TX 78945

$195,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 3,064 sqft · SingleFamily · 110 Days on market

Built 2002 Poor condition 3.16 ac lot $64/sqft · 46% below area Est $361k · 46% under ↓ 13% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +13.5/30.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Discover the opportunity to create your dream property at 5431 N Highway 77, located just 4 miles north of Highway 71 in thriving community of La Grange. +/- 3.16-acre tract, identified as ABS A086 RABB WM 3 LGS, offers rural charm & in town accessibility. Tract is accessible via easement road on left/west side of Hwy 77. Property features small pond, 2 homes in need of significant repairs. Existing utilities include water well, septic system, electricity. Priced competitively just above the appraisal district value, this property presents an excellent canvas for residential, commercial, or investment opportunities. As Hwy 77 undergoes widening & La Grange experiences considerable growth, this area is poised for future development, making an ideal location for investors & visionaries alike. Situated just north of Rabbs Prairie Road, close to many home sites on Colorado River. Due to the seller's limited knowledge of the property’s details, an on-site inspection is highly recommended.

Key facts

• 3.16 acre tract
• Existing utilities
• Future development

Tags

• 3.16 ACRE TRACT
• SMALL POND
• EASEMENT ROAD
• EXISTING UTILITIES
• FUTURE DEVELOPMENT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $195k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $6 ($68/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $171k (12.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $171k (12.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 1.7% in La Grange — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#920 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• La Grange ISD (town): math 43% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #300 of 826 in TX (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 175 active listings in the ZIP; 23 units permitted in Fayette County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fayette County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 110 days — a 9% lower offer ($177k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $171,297 (12.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 110 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.12%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $360,770
• List price: $195,000
• Delta: -45.95%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-31,213
• Equity at exit: $29,075

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.51×
• Total profit: $-26,612
• Equity at exit: $16,860

Cash invested: $54,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78945

• Home prices YoY: -32.0%
• Active inventory: 175
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,713 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,023
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$244 /mo · $2,925/yr
• Insurance: −$81
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$360
• Net cashflow: $6

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,706

Max offer price $195,000

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $140	-5% $73	+0% $6	+5% $-62	+10% $-129
Rent	-10% $-130	-5% $-62	+0% $6	+5% $73	+10% $141
Rate	-1.0pp $104	-0.5pp $55	base $6	+0.5pp $-45	+1.0pp $-96

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,750
• Closing costs: $5,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $195,000 Active 110 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $195,000 Active 108 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $195,000 Active 107 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $195,000 Active 106 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $195,000 Active 105 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $195,000 Active 103 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $195,000 Active 102 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $195,000 Active 99 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $195,000 Active 98 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $195,000 Active 97 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $195,000 Active 96 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $195,000 Active 93 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $195,000 Active 92 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $195,000 Active 91 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $195,000 Active 90 DOM
16. 2026-03-02
    listed $195,000 Active 1016-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1699 chars)

    Potential Awaits in La Grange, TX! Discover the opportunity to create your dream property at 5431 N Highway 77, located just 4 miles north of Highway 71 in the thriving community of La Grange. This unique +/- 3.16-acre tract, identified as ABS A086 RABB WM 3 LGS, offers some rural charm and in town accessibility. The tract is accessible via a convenient easement road on the left west side of Highway 77. The property features a tranquil small pond, providing a perfect setting for relaxation or recreation. Two homes are situated on the lot, though they are in need of significant repairs, they offer ample potential for restoration or redevelopment. With existing utilities including a water well, septic system, and electricity on site, your vision for this space can come to life. Priced competitively just above the appraisal district value, this property presents an excellent canvas for residential, commercial, or investment opportunities. As Highway 77 undergoes widening and La Grange experiences considerable growth, this area is poised for future development, making it an ideal location for investors and visionaries alike. Situated just north of Rabbs Prairie Road, you'll find yourself nestled in one of the county’s most picturesque regions, close to many home sites on the Colorado River. With so much to offer and plenty of room for improvement, this property is a must-see for anyone looking to capitalize on La Grange’s expanding landscape. Due to the seller's limited knowledge of the property’s details, an on-site inspection is highly recommended. Don’t miss out on the potential of this remarkable land—come envision the possibilities today!

17. 2026-03-02
    listed $195,000 Active 1699-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1699 chars)

    Potential Awaits in La Grange, TX! Discover the opportunity to create your dream property at 5431 N Highway 77, located just 4 miles north of Highway 71 in the thriving community of La Grange. This unique +/- 3.16-acre tract, identified as ABS A086 RABB WM 3 LGS, offers some rural charm and in town accessibility. The tract is accessible via a convenient easement road on the left west side of Highway 77. The property features a tranquil small pond, providing a perfect setting for relaxation or recreation. Two homes are situated on the lot, though they are in need of significant repairs, they offer ample potential for restoration or redevelopment. With existing utilities including a water well, septic system, and electricity on site, your vision for this space can come to life. Priced competitively just above the appraisal district value, this property presents an excellent canvas for residential, commercial, or investment opportunities. As Highway 77 undergoes widening and La Grange experiences considerable growth, this area is poised for future development, making it an ideal location for investors and visionaries alike. Situated just north of Rabbs Prairie Road, you'll find yourself nestled in one of the county’s most picturesque regions, close to many home sites on the Colorado River. With so much to offer and plenty of room for improvement, this property is a must-see for anyone looking to capitalize on La Grange’s expanding landscape. Due to the seller's limited knowledge of the property’s details, an on-site inspection is highly recommended. Don’t miss out on the potential of this remarkable land—come envision the possibilities today!

18. 2026-02-28
    historical
19. 2025-11-18
    price
20. 2025-11-18
    price $195,000
21. 2025-01-17
    listed $224,620 Active
22. 2025-01-17
    listed Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,556
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,923
• − Property taxes: −$2,925
• − Insurance: −$975
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,644
• − Management: −$1,644
• − Depreciation: −$5,673
• Taxable loss: −$3,229
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$775
• After-tax cash flow: $843/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

This property requires extensive repairs and maintenance, including major work on the siding, roof, and landscaping. Significant updates are needed to increase its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Major siding — Significant damage and wear
• Major roof — Rusty metal roof
• Major HVAC/mechanicals — No visible units
• Major landscaping — Overgrown vegetation

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping and yard maintenance — Enhances curb appeal and property value
• Both HVAC and electrical upgrades — Improves comfort and energy efficiency
• Both Siding and roof repairs — Restores structural integrity and enhances curb appeal

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
siding · Significant damage and wear	Major	$15,000–50,000
roof · Rusty metal roof	Major	$15,000–50,000
HVAC/mechanicals · No visible units	Major	$15,000–50,000
landscaping · Overgrown vegetation	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 4 items		$60,000–200,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping and yard maintenance — Enhances curb appeal and property value ↑
• Both HVAC and electrical upgrades — Improves comfort and energy efficiency ↑
• Both Siding and roof repairs — Restores structural integrity and enhances curb appeal ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: La Grange ISD
• NCES district ID: 4826100
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $51,243
• Composite: 37.11/100
• National rank: #4494
• State rank: #300 of 826 in TX

Livability — La Grange

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #920
• US rank: #16400

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 10,459

Population outlook (Fayette County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 26,343 people
• By 2030: 26,940 · +2.3%
• By 2040: 27,898 · +5.9%
• By 2050: 28,623 · +8.7%
• By 2075: 31,155 · +18.3%
• By 2100: 31,557 · +19.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 7% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Hungarian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 13% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Fayette

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.4) · D 18.9% · R 80.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.8pp toward R · 2008: -42.6pp · 2024: -61.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.4 2020: R+58.0 2016: R+59.1 2012: R+54.9 2008: R+42.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -102.88%
• Current HPI: 218.7015
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-13.2% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-02 Listed $195,000 Unlock MLS
• 2026-03-02 Listed $195,000 HARMLS
• 2026-02-28 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-11-18 Price Changed — Unlock MLS
• 2025-11-18 Price Changed $195,000 HARMLS
• 2025-01-17 Listed — Unlock MLS
• 2025-01-17 Listed $224,620 HARMLS