2936 Oleander St Unit A2 · St. James City, FL 33956

$299,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,053 sqft · Condo public records · 878 Days on market

Built 1980 $750/mo HOA · 15% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.6/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This should be your new home or vacation home! Beautiful 2nd floor condo - everything has been done. All new kitchen- appliances, cabinets, 2- new tile bathrooms, + tile floors! Pine Island has some of the best restaurants, entertainment, boating and fishing, biking and hiking trails. Just think you could be sitting on your screened lanai-looking at your boat all while enjoying some of the most beautiful subtropical landscape.

Key facts

• $750 HOA
• Parking
• Community pool

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Community features include boat facilities and proximity to hotel/motel; condo-hotel community
• Financial info: Community of 32 units; Pet policy: pets allowed with conditions (maximum 1 pet, up to 30 lbs)
• HOA & community: Monthly association fee ($750) that includes insurance, irrigation water, grounds maintenance, pest control, recreation facilities and trash; Association amenities: pool, bike storage, RV/boat storage, shuffleboard court, storage, trails, management

Exterior

• Parking: Assigned parking; Covered parking (1 covered space); Detached carport (1 space); Driveway; Guest parking; Paved and unpaved surfaces
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Private sewer; Cable available; High-speed internet available
• Home design: 2-story property; Entry level: 2; Resale property; Faces West; East exposure; Waterfront with canal access, intersecting canal, mangrove and seawall
• Construction: Block, concrete and stucco construction; Shingle roof; Zero lot line
• Exterior features: Security/high-impact doors; Sprinkler/irrigation system (automatic); Storage; Lanai; Porch; Screened porch/lanai; Smoke detectors

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric cooktop; Self-cleaning oven; Microwave; Refrigerator; Freezer; Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: Guest quarters
• Flooring: Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric); Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Impact glass windows; Cathedral and vaulted ceilings; High ceilings; Living/dining room; Pantry; Split bedroom layout; Separate shower (shower only); Cable TV; Furnished
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $657 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $300k).
• Recommended offer: $264k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.6% vs local median 4.9% in St. James City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Lee (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #42 of 73 in FL (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 287 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 15,411 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (4,686 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lee County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 878 days — a 12% lower offer ($264k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 26y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $100k (25%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $263,912 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 878 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
8. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
9. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.63% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.49%
• DSCR: 1.69
• GRM: 5.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.93×
• Total profit: $-5,965
• Equity at exit: $44,716

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.62×
• Total profit: $51,829
• Equity at exit: $25,930

Cash invested: $83,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33956

• Home prices YoY: -16.3%
• Active inventory: 287
• Price-to-rent: 5.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,884 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax from tax record: −$326 /mo · $3,917/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$750
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,026
• Net cashflow: $657

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,051

Max offer price $299,900

Occupancy floor 82%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $827	-5% $742	+0% $657	+5% $572	+10% $488
Rent	-10% $272	-5% $464	+0% $657	+5% $850	+10% $1,043
Rate	-1.0pp $808	-0.5pp $734	base $657	+0.5pp $580	+1.0pp $501

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,975
• Closing costs: $8,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2951 York Rd Saint James City, FL	2.0	2.0	1444	$5,500	$3.81	24d	1	0.13mi
3103 Harpoon Ln Saint James City, FL	2.0	2.0	1094	$3,000	$2.74	24d	1	0.38mi
2744 Sanderling Ct Saint James City, FL	2.0	1.0	841	$5,300	$6.30	24d	1	0.41mi
3864 Royal Palm Dr Saint James City, FL	2.0	1.0	960	$1,650	$1.72	24d	1	0.46mi
3811 Emerald Ave Saint James City, FL	3.0	2.5	1500	$5,500	$3.67	24d	1	0.72mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $750 · $9,000/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-17
   days on market $299,900 Active 878 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   days on market $299,900 Active 877 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $299,900 Active 876 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $299,900 Active 874 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   days on market $299,900 Active 870 DOM
6. 2026-06-07
   days on market $299,900 Active 868 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $299,900 Active 862 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $299,900 Active 861 DOM
9. 2025-04-24
   price $299,900
10. 2025-01-17
    price $329,900
11. 2024-07-12
    price $399,900
12. 2024-03-13
    price $360,900
13. 2024-01-21
    listed $399,900 Active
14. 2007-05-03
    soldstatus $290,000
15. 2007-04-30
    soldstatus $290,000 430-char remark

    Show marketing remark (430 chars)

    This should be your new home or vacation home! Beautiful 2nd floor condo - everything has been done. All new kitchen- appliances, cabinets, 2- new tile bathrooms, + tile floors! Pine Island has some of the best restaurants, entertainment, boating and fishing, biking and hiking trails. Just think you could be sitting on your screened lanai-looking at your boat all while enjoying some of the most beautiful subtropical landscape.

16. 2007-03-07
    price $305,000 430-char remark

    Show marketing remark (430 chars)

    This should be your new home or vacation home! Beautiful 2nd floor condo - everything has been done. All new kitchen- appliances, cabinets, 2- new tile bathrooms, + tile floors! Pine Island has some of the best restaurants, entertainment, boating and fishing, biking and hiking trails. Just think you could be sitting on your screened lanai-looking at your boat all while enjoying some of the most beautiful subtropical landscape.

17. 2001-03-29
    soldstatus $102,000
18. 2000-05-19
    historical
19. 2000-01-09
    listed $106,900
20. 1984-10-01
    soldstatus $53,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,917 · $326/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,917 · $326/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 28 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $58,602
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,799
• − Property taxes: −$3,917
• − Insurance: −$6,618
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,688
• − Management: −$4,688
• − HOA: −$9,000
• − Depreciation: −$8,724
• Taxable income: $4,167
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,000
• After-tax cash flow: $6,888/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lee
• NCES district ID: 1201080
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $49,518
• Composite: 41.49/100
• National rank: #3458
• State rank: #42 of 73 in FL

Livability — St. James City

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: St. James City, FL
• Population (ZIP): 3,846

Population outlook (Lee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 871,946 people
• By 2030: 955,468 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 1,113,587 · +27.7%
• By 2050: 1,256,891 · +44.1%
• By 2075: 1,560,270 · +78.9%
• By 2100: 1,726,848 · +98.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 3% Pacific Islander 2% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Slovak 4% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 2% German/W. Germanic 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.4) · D 35.5% · R 63.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.0pp toward R · 2008: -10.4pp · 2024: -28.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.4 2020: R+19.2 2016: R+20.4 2012: R+16.6 2008: R+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -58.47%
• Current HPI: 300.1416
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+465.8% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2025-04-24 Price Changed $299,900 FORTMLS
• 2025-01-17 Price Changed $329,900 FORTMLS
• 2024-07-12 Price Changed $399,900 FORTMLS
• 2024-03-13 Price Changed $360,900 FORTMLS
• 2024-01-21 Listed $399,900 FORTMLS
• 2007-05-03 Sold (Public Records) $290,000 Public Records
• 2007-04-30 Sold (MLS) $290,000 FORTMLS
• 2007-03-07 Price Changed $305,000 FORTMLS
• 2001-03-29 Sold (Public Records) $102,000 Public Records
• 2000-05-19 Listing Removed — FORTMLS
• 2000-01-09 Listed $106,900 FORTMLS
• 1984-10-01 Sold (Public Records) $53,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,917 · +13.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.