428-430 North St · Lykens, PA 17048

$150,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,048 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 598 Days on market

Built 1900 3,485 sqft lot Est $136k · 10% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.1/30.0
• Appreciation +4.8/10.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• ARV discount +3.0/15.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Discover a prime investment opportunity with this well-maintained duplex in Lykens. Featuring two distinct units, this property offers versatility and the potential for significant returns. The 428 side boasts 3 bedrooms, 1.5 baths, and is currently vacant, allowing you to either move in or start generating rental income immediately. Fresh updates, including new paint and lighting, enhance its appeal. The 430 side, occupied by a reliable tenant on a month-to-month lease, includes 3 bedrooms, 1 bath, and convenient first-floor laundry. With off-street parking and easy street parking available. Whether you're looking to expand your investment portfolio or find a home with rental potential, th

Key facts

• Duplex in lykens
• Off-street parking
• 3,485 sq ft lot

Tags

• DUPLEX IN LYKENS
• OFF-STREET PARKING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-465 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $68k (54.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $120k (20.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $68k (54.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#969 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Upper Dauphin Area SD (rural): math 37% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #259 of 539 in PA (top 48%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Upper Dauphin Area Hs (math 77%, 343 students, 47% FRL).
• Market conditions: 26 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 540 units permitted in Dauphin County in 2024 (194 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $315 of equity ($1k loan paydown + $-722 appreciation (-0.5% local appreciation)).

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 598 days — a 12% lower offer ($132k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $30k; list at $150k implies a 408% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $460/mo; built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $67,851 (54.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 598 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 55% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.26%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.13%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $136,240
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
416 Main St	0.15mi	3/1.0	1,080 (+3%)	15mo	$120,000	$111	76
123-S S Edward St	0.40mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,090 (+4%)	8mo	$135,000	$124	61
641-645 Main St	0.33mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,152 (+10%)	6mo	$150,000	$130	56
911 Main St	0.72mi	3/1.0	1,040 (-1%)	15mo	$179,900	$173	53
217 Oak St	0.65mi	2/1.0 (-1)	900 (-14%)	1mo	$110,500	$123	40
409 Center St	0.74mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,072 (+2%)	21mo	$145,000	$135	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.48% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.12×
• Total profit: $-37,116
• Equity at exit: $39,981

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.27×
• Total profit: $-53,480
• Equity at exit: $45,292

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 17048

• Home prices YoY: -0.2%
• Active inventory: 26
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,200 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax from tax record: −$103 /mo · $1,242/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$460 /mo · $5,525/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$252
• Net cashflow: $-465

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,789

Max offer price $67,851

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
609 Spruce St Lykens, PA	2.0	1.0	1404	$1,200	$0.85	43d	1	0.47mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-03-21
   status Pending
2. 2025-10-24
   status Active
3. 2025-10-22
   historical
4. 2025-07-23
   status Active
5. 2025-07-22
   historical
6. 2025-03-18
   price $150,000
7. 2025-01-07
   price $160,000
8. 2024-07-28
   listed $165,000 Active
9. 1998-09-18
   soldstatus $29,500
10. 1989-04-21
    soldstatus $13,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,242 · $103/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,806 · $150/mo
• Expected delta: +$564/yr (+$47/mo · 45.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone AE · 71% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,400
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$1,242
• − Insurance: −$6,275
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,152
• − Management: −$1,152
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable loss: −$8,187
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,965
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,615/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Upper Dauphin Area SD
• NCES district ID: 4224360
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $48,201
• Composite: 39.23/100
• National rank: #4012
• State rank: #259 of 539 in PA

Livability — Lykens

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #969
• US rank: #10571

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety B User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lykens, PA
• Population (ZIP): 3,801

Population outlook (Dauphin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 281,628 people
• By 2030: 283,549 · +0.7%
• By 2040: 285,385 · +1.3%
• By 2050: 286,188 · +1.6%
• By 2075: 291,053 · +3.3%
• By 2100: 282,374 · +0.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 2% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Polish 4% Romanian 3% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada, India
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · German/W. Germanic 10% Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Dauphin

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.9) · D 52.4% · R 46.5% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.1pp toward R · 2008: 9.1pp · 2024: 5.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.9 2020: D+8.5 2016: D+2.8 2012: D+6.0 2008: D+9.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.48%
• Current HPI: 241.7628
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+1011.1% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-21 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-10-24 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-10-22 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-07-23 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-07-22 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-03-18 Price Changed $150,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-01-07 Price Changed $160,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-07-28 Listed $165,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 1998-09-18 Sold (Public Records) $29,500 Public Records
• 1989-04-21 Sold (Public Records) $13,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.2%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,242 · +5.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.